It looks like summer is not over yet. After a week of fairly unstable weather across much of the Prairies, it looks like we’re moving into a period of stable warm weather to start September.
Before that weather moves in, there’s an area of low pressure over Montana with an associated upper low over southern Alberta. This is bringing periods of rain and cool temperatures. Southern and central Alberta will be dealing with this on Wednesday before it moves into Saskatchewan Wednesday afternoon and then into Manitoba on Thursday.
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Prairie forecast: Potential to turn cool and wet
For this forecast period we are starting off with a large area of high pressure over Ontario and an equally large area of low pressure over the Yukon. The clockwise flow around the Ontario high, combined with the counterclockwise flow around the Yukon low, is creating a widespread southerly flow across the Prairies. This should lead to one more day of warm temperatures across the western Prairies and a couple more days over the eastern half.
Once this system departs to the northeast on Friday, the stage will be set for a ridge of high pressure to build across the Prairies. This ridge will bring sunny skies and warming temperatures for the start of the school year. Daytime highs across the Prairies will be pushing into the upper twenties and even low thirties by the middle of next week.
Alberta
This forecast period starts with an area of low pressure over Montana and an associated upper low over southern Alberta. This feature will bring widespread rains to southern regions and rain and/or showers over central regions on Wednesday. With the clouds and precipitation, temperatures will be on the cool side with daytime highs forecasted to be in the 13 to 16 C range.
The Montana low is forecasted to move into Saskatchewan late today but there is some indication that eastern regions may see some lingering showers on Thursday. By Friday, surface high pressure will move in and bring plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Over the weekend and into next week, the weather models are showing an upper ridge building over B.C. and Alberta and then slowly transitioning eastwards. This will allow sunny skies to continue with temperatures warming into the upper twenties to low thirties by Sunday or Monday. These conditions look to continue through much of next week.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Saskatchewan will feel the impact of the approaching upper low by Wednesday afternoon with increasing clouds and the chance of showers and thundershowers. These showers and thundershowers will continue overnight before they move off to the east by Thursday afternoon.
Currently it looks like there will be a mix of sun and clouds, which will allow temperatures to warm into the upper teens to around twenty degrees. In Manitoba, this same area of low pressure will begin to push clouds, showers, and thundershowers into southern and central regions beginning late this evening and lasting through Thursday.
The models are showing the upper low speeding up as it moves through the province which means that thing should clear by Friday. But as we know, upper lows often like to stick around a little longer than expect.
On Friday, skies will have cleared out across Saskatchewan and hopefully across Manitoba as surface high pressure pushes in from the west. With high pressure in place over the weekend, and with plenty of sunshine, expect temperatures to warm into the low twenties with overnight lows falling to around 10 C.
To start the first week of September, a building upper ridge over Alberta will begin to slowly move eastwards. This upper ridge will continue to support clear skies and will help to boost temperatures. Expect daytime highs across southern and central Saskatchewan to push into the mid twenties by Monday with upper twenties to thirty degrees expected on Tuesday or Wednesday. Similar temperatures are expected in Manitoba, but it will take an extra day or two to arrive.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
