We start this forecast period with warm high pressure in place across the eastern Prairies and a developing area of low pressure over Alberta.
Ahead of the low is an upper-level ridge that’s bringing plenty of heat to Alberta on Wednesday. This will then push eastwards into Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Thursday and Friday.
The Alberta low, combined with the heat from the upper ridge, will help to trigger thunderstorms across the province Wednesday afternoon and evening. The low will track from central Alberta northeastwards on Thursday and will cross far northern Manitoba on Friday. This means most of the moisture from this system will fall over the northern half of the Prairies. While that will help with forest fires, it will do little to help out farmers.
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As the low pushes off to the east, cooler air will spill southwards to give a couple of days of relief from the warm temperatures.
Weak high pressure looks to settle in across the Prairies over the weekend and into the first part of next week. The weather models are also showing a couple of weak areas of low pressure trying to push their way into the Prairies. The first one is forecasted to impact southern Alberta on Saturday and Sunday. The second system may bring some showers or thundershowers to southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday. As usual when dealing with weak systems, confidence in this part of the forecast is low.
Alberta
This region will see one more day of heat before a developing area of low pressure drags a cold front southward. With the heat and the instability from the low, there will be good chance for thunderstorms over central and northern regions on Wednesday afternoon and into the overnight hours. There is the potential for these storms to be severe.
The storms and the area of low pressure will push off into northern Saskatchewan by Thursday, which will allow cooler air to push southwards. Expect daytime highs over central and northern regions to be low twenties with overnight low falling to around 10 C. Southern regions may see one more warm day on Thursday depending on the speed of the cold front dropping southwards.
Over the weekend central and northern regions will see sunny to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs continuing to be around 20 C. Southern regions look to be cloudy with scattered showers and thundershowers as a weak area of low pressure is forecasted to drift northwards from Montana.
As the low bumps up against high pressure that is settling in across the central Prairies, it will weaken and drift back to the south. This should allow skies to clear to start the week. Under the strong early July sun, temperatures will begin to warm back up with daytime highs expected to be in the mid to upper twenties by Wednesday.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
A combination of surface high pressure slowly sliding off into Ontario, a building area of low pressure over Alberta and an upper-level ridge ahead of the low will bring plenty of heat to both provinces from Wednesday to Friday. Expect daytime highs to be in the low thirties while overnight lows falling into the upper teens.
As the Alberta low drifts eastwards, it will bring unsettled weather to far northern regions of Saskatchewan on Thursday and Manitoba on Friday. A cold front dropping southeastwards behind this low could trigger a few thunderstorms on Friday or Saturday over southern regions with the best chance for storms expected to be across southern Manitoba.
Cooler conditions are expected over the weekend with daytime highs in the low twenties and overnight lows falling to around 12 C. Weak high pressure is forecasted to develop across these regions over the weekend and into the first part of next week. This will bring sunny to partly cloudy skies and slowly warming temperatures. Expect daytime highs to warm back into the mid twenties by Tuesday or Wednesday with overnight lows in the 12 to 15 C range.
The weather models are currently showing an area of low pressure sliding by south of the border on Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence in this part of the forecast is low, but should this system materialize as forecasted, southern Saskatchewan could see some scattered showers or thundershowers on Tuesday with southern Manitoba being impacted on Wednesday.
