You can’t say it hasn’t been a strange and interesting winter. First, we saw a wintery end to October, then fall moved back in for most of November and December before we finally saw a big old shot winter in mid-January. Now we have been dealing with spring like conditions over the last two weeks – what’s next? Well, it looks like winter is going to try and make a comeback. Eastern regions can expect a stormy start to this forecast period with western regions slowly slipping back into more seasonal temperatures.
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We start this forecast period with a developing Colorado low to our south and a ridge of high pressure over the northwestern Prairies, jutting into the territories. Normally this setup would be perfect for a big winter storm, and while it does look like there will be some nasty weather over the eastern prairies, there are a couple of key ingredients either missing or in too much abundance. First, the ridge of high pressure sitting to our northwest is not that strong or cold. Current indications from the weather models suggest it will not drop southwards very much to help energize the storm. Secondly, there’s still a lot of warm air in place ahead of the Colorado low. The big question with the storm will be how much rain verses snow there will be and just where will the rain or snow fall.
Sorry for those of you in Alberta–this forecast period looks a little boring with high pressure mostly dominating and bringing cooler but not really cold winter weather.
Alberta
Weak high pressure looks to be the controlling weather maker across much of Alberta during this forecast period. With the main high staying well to the north, any really cold air will stay out of the province. This means daytime highs will range from -5 to -8 C over northern regions to around the 0 to +4 C in the south. Overnight lows look to drop into the low minus teens to start off over northern regions. Lows in the south will drop to around -10 C. There are indications of a bit of a push of milder air early next week before more winter like temperatures move in later next week.
Northern and central regions look to be mostly dry while extreme southern and eastern regions could see some moisture from the Colorado low that’s forecasted to impact Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Thursday and Friday. Current indications are that any precipitation from this system would fall as snow. A second impulse is forecasted to move in from the Pacific on Friday bringing clouds along with the chance of flurries or light snow to southwestern and southern regions.
Saskatchewan
This forecast period starts with an approaching Colorado low. The models show a trough of low-pressure stretching northwards from the low into southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday. This trough looks to bring widespread light snow with amounts in the 5 cm range. It looks like there will be a few locations that may see heavier amounts, but exact locations are difficult to pinpoint. Snow from the low will begin to pull out of the region on Thursday as the system moves northeastwards into northwestern Ontario. Total snow fall from the system is forecasted range from a few centimeters over western and northern regions, to upwards of 15 cm if some of the heavy snow band forecasted for Wednesday materialize.
Weak arctic high pressure is forecasted to work southwards behind the low on Friday and Saturday. This should bring colder temperatures and an eventual return of sunny skies. Expect daytime highs to be in the -7 to -10 C range with overnight lows falling to around -17–cold but still near average for this time of the year. Milder air then looks to work its way in from the west to start next week with daytime highs moderating into the -4 to -6 C by Monday or Tuesday. This milder weather does not look like it will stick around as colder air is forecasted to move in later in the week.
Manitoba
Messy is the word to describe the start of this forecast period for this region. A developing Colorado low is forecasted to bring a mixed bag of precipitation to all of southern and central Manitoba. This should start sometime late Wednesday and last right though into Friday. The big question with this storm system is where the rain/snow line will set up. Unfortunately, there isn’t strong agreement for this among the weather models.
Using the models I trust the most, it looks like the low will track northeastwards and be sitting around Lake of the Woods by late Thursday. Precipitation from this low is forecasted to begin moving in from the south and west by Wednesday evening. Areas east of Brandon will likely see rain while areas to the west see snow. The northern extent of the rain looks to set up right around the southern end of lake Winnipeg.
Western and northwestern regions will see snow intensify overnight Wednesday while eastern regions will see mostly rain. Thursday will bring widespread rain to the eastern quarter of southern Manitoba with light snow continuing over western regions. Eastern regions will see the rain switch to snow by sometime in the afternoon on Thursday with light snow lingering into Friday, especially over the eastern half of the province.
Total amounts of precipitation from this system look to be in the 10 to 20 mm of water equivalent amounts with western and northern regions seeing snow with upwards of 10 to 20 cm of accumulations while eastern regions may only see about 5 cm. I will try to update this as things become clearer, but with the unique nature of this system it will be difficult.
By the weekend there should be gradual clearing as high pressure drops in from the north. Along with clear skies will come more seasonable temperatures with daytime highs forecasted to be in the -8 to -12 C range by Sunday or Monday and overnight lows falling to around -18 C.
