It appears that winter has basically moved in across the Prairies. The latest snow depth map shows nearly all parts of the Prairies have some snow on the ground. Temperatures have definitely cooled with daytime highs staying well below zero across most regions.
For this forecast period, it looks like some of the coldest air of the season is on its way to Saskatchewan while most of Alberta and Manitoba appear to miss the really cold stuff. The weather models are not showing any strong storm systems impacting the region but there a few weak systems that may bring a light shot of snow here and there.
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Looking at the big picture, there’s a large area of low pressure spinning near James Bay and a ridge of Arctic high pressure building southwards out of the Yukon into Saskatchewan. The weather models show the James Bay low staying stationary and spinning in place until the weekend.
Normally this setup would pull plenty of cold air into Manitoba, but thanks to warm air wrapping around the low and the eastern Arctic not being that cold yet, there isn’t a big push of cold air. The low will, however, keep the ridge of Arctic high pressure over Saskatchewan which means they will see at least a few days of mid-winter like temperatures.
In Alberta, weak high pressure off the B.C. coast will push some milder Pacific air into the region. This will help offset the Arctic air trying to invade from the ridge over Saskatchewan.
Early next week, it looks like the Arctic ridge will break down while some weak ridging from the Pacific will begin to push eastwards. Should this materialize, expect a milder temperature pattern to develop. The weather models are hinting this may be the start of warm spell which could last right through to the holidays.
Alberta
This forecast period will start with sunny to partly cloudy skies across southern and central regions and partly to mostly cloudy skies over the north. Temperatures will slowly cool as a ridge of Arctic high pressure builds into Saskatchewan.
Daytime highs will be in the -10 C range in the south, -15 C over central regions, and around -20 C in the north. Overnight lows will be about 10 C colder with the coldest readings likely occurring on Saturday or Sunday morning. A weak disturbance may bring light snow to northern and central regions on Friday and Saturday before drifting off into Saskatchewan.
By Monday, milder Pacific air is forecasted to push in as the ridge over Saskatchewan weakens. There could be a few flurries on Monday, but little if any accumulation is expected. Daytime highs by Monday or Tuesday are forecasted to be in the 0 to +5 C range over southern regions, 0 to -5 C over central, and -10 t0 -15 C over northern regions.
Saskatchewan
A short forecast for this region: sunny to partly cloudy skies and cold, at least for the first half of this forecast period. With Arctic high pressure building in from the northwest, expect daytime high from Thursday to at least Saturday struggling to get into the -20 to -25 C range. Overnight lows will be in the -27 to -32 C range with the coldest temperatures expected on Friday and Saturday morning.
As the Arctic ridge breaks down over the weekend, warmer Pacific air will begin to push in. Warmest temperatures will be in the southwestern part of the province where daytime highs may make it to around the freezing mark by Sunday or Monday. Further to the north and east, temperatures will be a little cooler. Daytime highs are forecasted to the in the -7 to -12 C range. These milder temperatures look to continue into the first week of December with only a hint of some light snow possible on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Manitoba
As I pointed out earlier, under the current weather pattern this region should be seeing some really cold weather. Fortunately, the James Bay low is not able to tap into any frigid temperatures and the low should keep the worst part of the Arctic to our west. Sky conditions will be a little tricky depending on exactly how far east and west these two systems set up. Currently it looks like western Manitoba will see sunny to partly cloudy skies while eastern regions see partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Western regions, being closest to the ridge of high pressure, will be the coldest with daytime highs in the -17 to -20 C range from Thursday to Saturday, with overnight lows falling into the -25 to -28 C range. Like in Alberta and Saskatchewan, coldest readings look to be on Friday and Saturday morning. Further east, daytime high are forecasted to be in the -9 to -12 C range with overnight lows falling to around -16 C thanks to the cloud cover.
As the ridge breaks down late in the weekend and into the first part of next week, milder Pacific air will try to push in from the west, but most of the warm looks as if it will be diverted south of the boarder. Temperatures will still moderate a bit with daytime highs and overnight lows warming by about 5 C over western regions and a degree or two over eastern areas.
There is a chance of some snow on Tuesday or Wednesday as a weak system tracks southeastwards across the region but confidence in this low.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
