Prairie forecast: Prolonged heatwave expected

Forecast issued July 17, covering July 17 to 24, 2024

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Published: July 17, 2024

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The second heatwave of the summer appears to be establishing itself across the Prairies. This heatwave looks to last the whole forecast period as a strong upper ridge builds over central North America. Intense heat will stretch from the southern U.S. to the Arctic ocean.

The center of the ridge will start over Alberta where heat warnings are already in place. It will build stronger over the next several days and slowly shift eastwards. The center of the ridge will be lying over western Saskatchewan by the weekend.

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At the surface, a large area of high pressure is sliding to the southeast of the Prairies, and a a sprawling but disorganized thermal low is over the western U.S. This leaves a rather weak pressure pattern across the Prairies, which means winds will be relatively light, making if feel that much hotter.

Alberta

What can I say? Sunny and hot weather is expected to last until at least next Tuesday as a strong upper ridge continues to build in. Expect daytime highs to be in the low to mid thirties with overnight lows falling to around 18 C.

Southern regions could see the odd thundershower on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon but overall it looks to be mostly dry.

Around next Tuesday, the weather models  hint that the upper ridge will begin to slide east, allowing an area of low pressure to push in from B.C. This low will bring unsettled and cooler temperatures to western regions but it looks like it will take several more days for the upper ridge to move out of the province.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Just like Alberta, an extended period of sunny and hot weather is expected. Daytime highs across Saskatchewan are forecasted to start off around the 30 C mark with highs inching upwards towards the mid-thirties by the weekend.

Across Manitoba, daytime highs will start in the mid-twenties. As the upper ridge builds, highs will be pushing 30 C by Friday. Overnight lows across both provinces will be in the 15 to 18 C range.

The weather models are showing some instability working its way along the edge of the upper ridge late in the weekend, which brings a chance of some thunderstorms to eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Confidence in this feature is low. Overall, it looks like the hot and dry weather will continue for much of next week.

About the author

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man.

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