I think I’m starting to sound like a broken record.
The last forecast was messy with not much confidence in the details but a fair bit of confidence in the big picture. It more or less played out as expected. Upper lows dominated the weather picture across much of the Prairies. The main upper low strengthened and weakened as it wobbled around. It moved across north Saskatchewan and Manitoba before dissipating over southern Manitoba. We saw some weak high pressure ridging building northwards late in the forecast period, which brought a return of summery temperatures to much of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
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The question for this forecast period is: when will we see some sustained summer like temperatures?
Looking at the big picture, we should see some warmer temperatures—after all it is June—but I still don’t see signs of any sustained heat. As one reader pointed out, this isn’t necessarily bad news. Some Prairie regions are very happy to see cooler conditions and as much moisture as they can get. Others are looking for a reprieve from the cool damp weather so they can dry out and get back in the field.
Remember, a drought isn’t broken by a month of wet weather. We need to see several months of near or above average precipitation. With that said, here’s the general forecast for the next week.
Alberta
Weather forecasters in Alberta should get extra pay. This can be a tough area to forecast weather in the summer due to several factors—the most obvious being the mountains. This week there continues to be a fair bit of uncertainty as the overall pattern is favoring the development of lee side lows.
A lee side low is forecast to develop over central Alberta on Wednesday. This will then track northeastwards into northern Saskatchewan on Thursday. This low will bring a mix of sun and clouds along with afternoon showers and thundershowers.
As the low pushes eastwards, it will collapse the weak upper-level ridging and bring cooler temperatures to most regions. Expect daytime highs to be in the upper teens with overnight lows falling to around 10 C. The low, now in Saskatchewan, is forecast to stall out and create a predominantly cool northerly flow. Within the flow expect a mix of sun, clouds and showers to rotate southwards on Friday and Saturday, especially over central and northern regions.
As we move into the first week of June, the weather models show another area of low pressure moving in off the Pacific and causing the development of as second lee-side low. This low is forecast to bring cloudy skies and a good chance of showers and thundershowers late Monday and Tuesday in central and northern regions. Southern regions will see the best chance of rain on Wednesday as the cold front pushes through.
Saskatchewan
This region should see a nice, late spring day on Wednesday as the weak upper ridge moves through the province. An Alberta into northern Saskatchewan on Thursday and bring clouds and showers to most of central and northern Saskatchewan.
At the same time, a secondary area of low pressure is forecasted to develop over Montana. This will lift northwards into the developing upper low over northern Saskatchewan. This will bring showers or thundershowers to southern regions on Thursday. With all the clouds and precipitation, expect daytime highs to be in the low teens.
The upper low looks to spin over northern Saskatchewan through the end of the weekend, but central and southern regions should miss most of the unsettled weather. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies under a moderate, westerly flow. With the high sun angle, expect daytime highs to moderate into the low twenties with overnight lows falling to around 10 C.
Manitoba
Manitoba will feel the influence of the weak upper ridge on Wednesday and Thursday with plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures. Daytime highs are forecasted to be in the low to mid-twenties with overnight lows falling to around 10 C. Late on Thursday, the same Montana low that will lift into Saskatchewan is forecasted to push a warm front across the province. This front will likely trigger a band of showers and thundershowers.
The flow around the upper low over northern Saskatchewan will push occasional waves of unsettled conditions across central and southern Manitoba on Friday and Saturday. At this point it looks like most regions will see partly cloudy skies with only a small chance of showers. Temperatures will be seasonable with daytime highs in the 20 to 24 C range.
Early next week the weather models are showing an area of low pressure forming to our south, quickly lifting northeast and bringing plenty of clouds, cooler temperatures, and the chance of some rain. At this point, this a long way off and plenty can change between now and then.
