The last forecast was nearly spot on with only a small—but for some significant—change. The storm system forecasted to hit the eastern Prairies last Sunday and Monday occurred, but it moved a little further east than forecasted. This eastward shift meant no accumulating snow over Saskatchewan, but southern Manitoba saw 25 to 30 mm of rain in some regions.
For this forecast period, it looks like fall is going to hang on for at least one more week.
The weather models are showing an area of low pressure tracking across northern Canada on Wednesday and Thursday. This, combined with a digging trough of low pressure off the West Coast, will open the door for mild air to flood across the Prairies—first from the Pacific then from the western U.S.
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This mild air, combined with weak high pressure, looks to bring plenty of sunshine and temperatures well above average across the Prairies. The warmth will move into the western Prairies on Wednesday and reach the eastern Prairies on Thursday. The mild conditions should last through to the Remembrance Day long weekend.
The weather models then show a couple of area of low pressure moving in off the Pacific, thanks to the digging trough of low pressure off the coast. The first low is forecasted to move into central Alberta on Sunday and bring a slight chance of showers to southern regions. Snow is possible over far western and northern regions.
This low will track to the northeast on Monday and allow for cooler air to work southwards in the northerly flow behind the low. The models then show a second area of low pressure moving inland over the northwestern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. This low, should it develop, may bring wintery weather to southern Manitoba later in the week.
This far out, confidence is low, but it looks like this pattern will bring and end to the warmer than average weather with more seasonable temperature expected by the middle of next week.
Alberta
Temperatures look to warm up significantly over the next few days as a warm south-to-southwesterly flow develops on the south side of an area of low pressure tracking through northern Canada. With weak high pressure in place, skies should be sunny to partly cloudy. Expect daytime highs on Wednesday in the 8 to 10 C range with lows around -5 C.
On Thursday and Friday, the models are showing very warm (for early November) temperatures. Daytime highs will push the mid-teens across a good portion of southern and central Alberta and overnight lows should stay above freezing.
Over the weekend, an area of low pressure is forecasted to develop over central Alberta as an impulse moves in from the Pacific. Far western and north-central regions will see clouds and some showers or flurries on Sunday and Monday before the system lifts off to the northeast. Temperatures will cool down in the northerly flow behind the low with daytime highs by Sunday expected to be in the 5 to 8 C range to the south and 1 to 4 C over in more northern regions.
A second area of low pressure is then forecasted to move into the northwestern U.S. on Tuesday and track into Montana by Wednesday. This low will likely bring increasing clouds and the chance of flurries. Expect temperatures to be near average for this time of the year.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Both provinces will see one more day of cool weather as colder air continues to work south behind the last weekend’s low pressure system. By Thursday, milder air will begin to work across these regions with Saskatchewan seeing warmer temperatures early in the day. Manitoba may have to wait until later in the day before feeling the effects of the warm southwesterly flow. With weak high pressure in place, expect sunny to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs in the 7 to 9 C range on Thursday and warming to the 9 to 12 C range on Friday and Saturday.
By Sunday, cooler air will begin to work southwards behind an area of low pressure that is tracking by to the north. At the same time, warm air will try to lift northwards ahead of an area of low pressure moving in from the Pacific over the northwestern U.S. It looks like southern regions of both Saskatchewan and Manitoba will remain relatively mild on Sunday and Monday while areas to the north will cool down to more seasonable values.
Once again, the forecast becomes interesting at the tail end. The weather models are showing the Montana low deepening and the lifting into southern Manitoba by Wednesday or Thursday. This far out, confidence in these systems is low, but as always at this time of the year, it bears watching. Stay tuned for next weeks forecast!
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
