The Prairies have been stuck in an unsettled pattern for a while now, but we seem to be headed for a shift to warmer and drier conditions.
Now—for those of you who still need rain, the developing pattern doesn’t look like an overall dry pattern. It’s just not all clouds with the threat of showers every couple of days. For those of you on the eastern Prairies who are tired of rain then a little sunshine and heat is what the doctor ordered.
To start this forecast period, there’s a large upper low moving from north-central Saskatchewan into northern Ontario by sometime Thursday. This low is forecasted to wobble from east to west, pushing several rounds of unsettled weather into southern and central Manitoba and central and northern Saskatchewan before finally heading east by Friday.
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Over western regions, skies should be sunny to partly cloudy as a weak ridge tries to develop. Some of the models are showing instability from the Ontario low retrograding all the way into northern and central Alberta on Thursday and bringing some showers or afternoon thundershowers.
Over the weekend, a broad area of high pressure is forecasted to build over much of the Prairies, bringing mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. These sunny and dry conditions look to last to the end of this forecast period, but the models are showing the chance of more unsettled weather moving in late next week.
Alberta
For a change the forecast is simple and straight forward. The remnants of the upper low over Saskatchewan may push a few more clouds and the odd scattered showers into north of the province on Wednesday and maybe even Thursday, before finally pulling off to the east.
There will be a northerly to northwesterly flow behind the departing low which will keep temperatures a little on the cool side. Expect daytime highs to be in the upper teens to around twenty on Wednesday and Thursday with overnight lows falling into the 6 to 9 C range on most nights. A weak disturbance may slide southeastwards in this flow on Friday but current indications are for little to no precipitation from this system.
Over the weekend, the northerly flow will weaken with some weak upper-level ridging developing. This will help to moderate temperatures by a few degrees with daytime highs forecasted to be in the 22 to 24 C range and overnight lows falling to around 7 to 10 C.
High pressure building across the Prairies early next week will help to develop a southerly flow across the province which should help boost the temperatures a little further. Daytime highs early next week are forecasted to be in the mid twenties with overnight lows warming into the 12 to 14 C range. Skies should be sunny to partly cloudy with only a slight chance of afternoon showers or thundershowers.
Saskatchewan
This region will still be under the influence of the upper level low to start off this forecast period. Expect clouds and widespread showers over north-central regions on Wednesday with southern regions seeing more a mix a sun and clouds and scattered showers.
Skies should slowly clear out on Thursday and Friday with the odd shower still possible. Daytime highs will be a little on the cool side thanks to the clouds and a cool northerly flow. Expect highs to be in the mid to upper teens on Wednesday and Thursday before warming to around 20 C on Friday and then into the low twenties over the weekend. Overnight lows look to also be cool with readings forecasted to be in the 5 to 8 C range and warming to the 10 to 12 C range by the weekend.
High pressure is forecasted to build in over the weekend and into the early part of next week. With plenty of sunshine and relatively light winds, expect daytime highs to warm further with the weather models showing highs in the low to mid twenties with overnight lows in the low to mid teens.
Manitoba
This region has the toughest forecast, at least to start. The upper low over Saskatchewan is forecasted to slowly drift to the east on Wednesday and Thursday before stalling out over northern Ontario. This will bring rotating rounds of unsettled weather to central and southern regions as the northerly to northeasterly flow around the low pushes energy west. The exact timing of the impulses of energy is difficult to forecast but the weather models are showing several chances of unsettled weather from Wednesday to Friday, and possibly even Saturday.
Overall, most regions should expect partly cloudy skies with the chance of occasional showers. The best chance of showers is on Wednesday and Thursday. With the clouds and showers, expect temperatures to be on the cool side with daytime highs forecasted to be in the upper teens and overnight lows falling to around 10 C.
There will be a trend towards clearing skies as we work our way into the weekend. With the increase in sunshine, we should see milder daytime highs. The models forecast highs in the low twenties over the weekend.
A large area of high pressure is forecasted to build in early next week. This should bring plenty of sunshine and milder temperatures. Expect daytime highs to moderate into the mid twenties with overnight lows warming into the mid teens.
