Despite a fairly unsettled pattern over the last forecast period, the weather models did a pretty good job of the forecast. For this forecast period, things should settle down a bit with a ridge of high pressure starting off our forecast. That doesn’t mean that we won’t see any areas of low pressure, but unsurprisingly, the weather pattern is slowly shifting towards more of a fall pattern. That means quicker moving systems.
Eventually we’ll also have to deal with the first frost of the season, I just don’t think it will be during this forecast period – except for maybe the north half of Alberta. Just saying.
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To start this forecast period, we have a building ridge of high pressure that will bring at least one more day of sunny, warm fall weather to Alberta. Several days of the same sunny and warm weather are expected in Saskatchewan and Manitoba as the ridge moves eastwards. Alberta will likely see clouds and showers, with maybe even a few thundershowers on Thursday as an area of low-pressure zips northeastwards through the province. Along with the showers, temperatures will cool as the low collapses the ridge of high pressure to the south and east.
The flow across the Prairies then looks to become zonal on Friday and Saturday—a fancy term meaning a west to east flow. By Sunday morning the weather models are showing an area of low pressure developing over southern Alberta which will then quickly move off to lie over northern Manitoba by Sunday evening. Central and northern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan may see a few showers from this system, but the main impact will be cooler temperatures moving in behind the low. The weather models then show another ridge of high pressure building over the Prairies early next week, which would mean a return to sunny and warm conditions for the start of October.
Alberta
Alberta will see one more day of summer-like temperatures before a developing area of low pressure brings increasing clouds and the chance of showers or thundershowers on Thursday. Temperatures will start in the mid to upper twenties on Wednesday and then cool down into the upper teens to low twenties on Thursday and Friday over southern and central regions. Temperatures in the mid teens are expected over more northern regions.
Mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures are expected over the weekend as the flow becomes zonal across the region. The weather models are showing an area of low pressure quickly developing over southern Alberta on Sunday a swiftly moving off to the northeast. This low may bring the odd shower over central regions later in the day on Sunday but confidence in this fast-moving system is low.
Temperatures look to cool down early next week with the weather models showing daytime highs in the low to mid teens and overnight lows falling to around the 2 to 4 C range. Frost can’t be ruled out. It then looks like there will be a return to above average temperatures as a ridge of high pressure is forecasted to rebuild across the region.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
These two regions look to see plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures thanks to a building ridge of high pressure. Expect daytime highs from Wednesday to Friday to be in the mid or even upper twenties with overnight lows only falling into the low teens. Saturday still looks to be nice but with the Alberta low tracking by to the north helping to collapse the upper ridge, temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler.
Late Saturday and into Sunday, central Saskatchewan could see the odd scattered shower as the low tracks through but with the speed of the system it doesn’t look like there will be any significant rainfall. Southern and central regions of Manitoba look to miss out on any rainfall from this system. Cooler air will work southwards behind the low and will drop daytime highs into the mid-teens with overnight lows falling to 3 to 5 C range. The coldest temperatures are expected on Monday morning.
Temperatures look to rebound early next week as the weather models are showing a ridge of high-pressure rebuilding across the Prairies. Expect daytime highs by Wednesday to be back into the low twenties. So far, the weather models are not showing any signs of a big outbreak of cold air. Let’s keep our fingers crossed!
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
