I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but last week’s forecast played out pretty well. Heck, I could almost use the same opening paragraph from a week ago to describe this last forecast period:
“Well, last week was warmer, and overall the weather models did a good job with the forecast. The part that that didn’t play out quite as expected was the storm system that impacted the eastern Prairies on Sunday and Monday.”
To start this forecast period, we have a strong area of Arctic high pressure dropping southeastwards behind the area of low pressure that hit the eastern Prairies earlier in the week. This high will bring a quick shot of cold weather to Saskatchewan and Manitoba from Wednesday to Friday.
Read Also
Dryness poised to threaten Saskatchewan crops
Crops in Saskatchewan are developing in opposite directions, the province’s latest crop report said. Growing conditions in the province vary, with some areas receiving enough rain while other locations are experiencing crop stress due to hot, dry conditions.
At the same time, an Alberta clipper is forecasted to develop over central Alberta and quickly drop southeastwards along the advancing edge of the Arctic air. This low is forecasted to bring between 10 and 15 centimetres of snow along a path from Edmonton towards southeastern Saskatchewan.
Once this low passes through, the weather models show a couple of weak upper ridges building over Alberta and sliding eastwards over the next week. This is predicted to bring well-above-average temperatures and little in the way of snow.
Alberta
All regions of Alberta are going to start this forecast period on the cold side with coldest temperatures in northern regions. An area of low pressure is forecasted to bring between 5 and 15 centimetres of snow to central regions beginning early on Wednesday and by Thursday morning. Cold temperatures will remain in place on Thursday, but a large and complex area of low pressure spinning off the coast of B.C. will help to induce ridging over the province on Friday. This ridging will bring sunny to partly-cloudy skies along with mild temperatures. Expect daytime highs to push into the low single digits in the south on Friday. Highs over central and northern regions could warm into the -7 to -4 C range.
Over the weekend, temperatures look to continue to warm with highs possibly pushing the 10 C mark over southern regions. Central and more northern regions should push a few degrees above the freezing mark.
The weather models show a slight cooldown on Monday and Tuesday as the upper ridge slides off to the southeast. Expect daytime highs to be about 5 to 8 C colder.
The models show a second upper ridge building in on Christmas Eve, which would mean a return to daytime highs pushing 10 C over southern regions and in the low single digits over central and northern regions. Looking further ahead, well above-average temperatures are forecast to continue through to the New Year. More on that in next week’s Christmas Eve forecast.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Arctic high pressure is building into this region and bringing a return to below-average temperatures, especially over Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. An area of low pressure is forecast to travel along the southern edge of this Arctic air on Wednesday and Thursday. The track of this system is forecasted to be from central Alberta southeastwards towards the border of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and North Dakota. Areas along and to the north of this track could see between 5 and 15 centimetres of snow and blustery winds. Saskatchewan will see most of the snow fall during the afternoon and overnight hours on Wednesday. Manitoba should see snow move in overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning.
The low should be out of the region by Thursday afternoon. With Arctic high pressure still in place, expect a cold day with daytime highs in the -20 C range and overnight lows in the -27 C range. Luckily these temperatures don’t look to last long. A building upper ridge over Alberta will begin to push milder air into Saskatchewan on Friday and Manitoba on Saturday. Expect daytime highs to moderate a bit each day. By Sunday, expect highs around -6 C and overnight lows around -12 C.
The mild weather looks like it will continue into the following week as a second upper ridge is forecasted to develop over Alberta and shift eastwards. Currently the weather models show this ridge sliding though this region on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day and bringing plenty of warm air. Should this pan out, I would not be surprised to see daytime highs pushing the freezing mark with overnight lows only falling to around -8 C.
Looking further ahead, the weather models show temperatures remaining well above average right through to the New Year with no indications of any big storm systems. More on that in our Christmas Eve forecast.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
