I must admit, the weather models didn’t do that great of a job with last week’s forecast. The models got the general pattern correct but were off on how cold the Arctic high became over Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Meanwhile, they were conservative on the warm air that pushed into Alberta early this week.
For this forecast period, the weather models have been bouncing back and forth between a return to cold weather after a brief mid-week warmup or a return to the mild weather pattern we saw during much of December. The models have been slowly converging towards the milder solutions, but at this point confidence in the second half of this forecast period is low.
Read Also
Dryness poised to threaten Saskatchewan crops
Crops in Saskatchewan are developing in opposite directions, the province’s latest crop report said. Growing conditions in the province vary, with some areas receiving enough rain while other locations are experiencing crop stress due to hot, dry conditions.
We start this forecast period with Arctic high pressure over the eastern U.S. and an area of low-pressure cutting eastwards across the Territories. The clockwise flow around the eastern U.S. high and the counterclockwise rotation around the northern Canadian low will help pull mid Pacific air into much of the Prairies. As the northern low moves east over the weekend, Arctic high pressure will begin sliding southwards.
At this point it’s not looking like it’ll be long-term cold snap. Now, this is where a lot of the uncertainty lies, but the latest weather models are showing another shot of mild Pacific air pushing into the Prairies late in this forecast period. This should bring a return of above-average temperatures.
Alberta
It’s a tough start to this forecast period. The mild Pacific air that arrived on Tuesday looks to be pushed out of the region on Wednesday only to be replaced by more mild air by Thursday or Friday. The second push of mild air will be accompanied by an area of low pressure that will bring a good chance of showers or wet snow to southern and central regions on Friday. This will possibly last into Saturday, especially over southern regions. Temperatures look to remain unseasonably mild with daytime highs over southern regions ranging from +2 to +5 C and central regions seeing highs in the -2 to +3 C range.
By Sunday it looks like the low will have moved off into the northern states with the weather models showing Arctic high pressure building southwards into Saskatchewan. This will bring cooler conditions starting on Sunday with daytime highs dropping into the -4 to -8 C range by Monday. The weather models are showing temperatures quickly rebounding by Tuesday as Pacific air pushing into the province ahead of an area of low pressure coming in off the Pacific. Daytime highs are forecasted to be back into the +3 to +5 C range with overnight lows falling to around -2 C.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Saskatchewan will start this forecast period off with a return to near freezing temperatures as mild Pacific slides southeastwards out of Alberta ahead of a cold front dropping southeastwards from the northern Canadian low. The mild air will clip southern Manitoba on Thursday with highs expected to be in the -2 to -4 C range.
As the cold front pushes through on Thursday, there could be a little light snow with best chances being in Manitoba. Amounts from this look light with maybe a centimeter or two of light fluffy snow. Temperatures will cool a little bit with the passing of the cold front with highs over the weekend forecasted to be in the -8 to -12 C range.
Over the weekend, an area of low pressure sliding along the border is forecasted to bring clouds and light snow to much of southern and central Saskatchewan. Once again, amounts look light with totals only expected to be around 2 to 3 cm. The system is forecasted to weaken and drop southeastwards on Sunday which should keep most of the snow out of Manitoba.
Arctic high pressure is then forecasted to drop southwards into Saskatchewan on Monday. This should bring clearing skies and a return of cold temperatures to both provinces. Coldest temperatures will be over Saskatchewan where daytime highs by Tuesday are forecasted to be around -20 C with overnight lows dropping to around -28 C. In Manitoba, temperatures will be about 5 C warmer.
The cold weather does not look like it will stick around for long as the high quickly slides off to the southeast and mild Pacific air begins to push back in as early as Wednesday.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
