MarketsFarm — For MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville, there was little in the latest Statistics Canada (StatCan) grain stocks report that would budge the markets.
“When I look at the run of StatCan reports that we get through the year, whether they’re acreage, production or ending stocks, this report in May is the least important of them all in terms of influencing the marketplace,” commented Jubinville.
Read Also
U.S. grains: Wheat futures rise on supply snags in top-exporter Russia
U.S. wheat futures closed higher on Thursday on concerns over the limited availability of supplies for export in Russia, analysts said.
One thing that was important about the report was its methodology, he suggested. For on-farm stocks, StatCan stuck with its AgZero initiative that’s meant to reduce the burden on respondents, while still producing high-quality estimates using alternative methods.
Jubinville suggested that change could lead to some consternation among market players regarding the accuracy of the report.
MORE READING: Pulse weekly outlook
Canola stocks picked up some lost ground since March 2022, with current total stocks pegged at 5.948 million tonnes, up 15.3 per cent from a year ago. However, that still came in well below the five-year average of 8.761 million tonnes.
Wheat as well saw an increase, from 11.22 million tonnes last March to now 13.261 million. But again, the figure was quite short of the average of 16.325 million tonnes.
Jubinville said he was somewhat surprised by the durum number of 1.806 million tonnes this March versus 1.897 million last year.
“But it’s always the canola number and the wheat number that are the focus. Both numbers probably came in a little less than what I think the general idea of trade is, suggesting good outflow of both of those commodities,” he said, doubting either figure had any significant impact on the markets.
Among other cereals, barley stocks grew a fair bit, from 1.853 million tonnes in March 2022 to now 2.667 million — but, as often the case, still below the five-year average, in this case 2.892 million tonnes.
Oats was an outlier as it well exceeded its average of 1.713 million tonnes. StatCan said oat stocks were about 2.634 million tonnes versus 1.228 million a year ago.
Flax was another gain in the report, with current stocks placed at 355,000 tonnes compared to last year’s 184,000, with the average at 277,000.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
