ICE weekly outlook: Canola rangebound, awaits report

New StatsCan data due out Monday

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Published: August 25, 2021

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ICE November 2021 canola (candlesticks) with Bollinger bands (20,2). (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — ICE Futures canola contracts saw some choppy activity during the week ended Wednesday, hitting their lowest levels in nearly a month before recovering back toward the upper end of their wide sideways range.

A new production report from Statistics Canada, due out Monday (Aug. 30), could set the stage for a break one way or the other, with the nearby market focus on harvest conditions.

Drought conditions through the growing season cut into yields, with pre-report expectations calling for canola production well below the 18.7 million tonnes grown in 2020.

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However, with industry estimates coming in anywhere from 11.5 million to 16 million tonnes, any surprises in the data have the potential to spark a move in the futures.

“Guys are holding their cards tight,” said a Winnipeg-based trader, adding he was hearing mixed reports from clients of great yields in some spots that got moisture — but even worse-than-expected yields in others.

As a result, putting a number on the size of the crop would be difficult until the harvest is complete.

From a chart standpoint, the November contract finds itself in a range between $850 and $940 per tonne.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.


For more content related to drought management visit The Dry Times, where you can find a collection of stories from our family of publications as well as links to external resources to support your decisions through these difficult times.

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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