ICE canola weekly outlook: Tightening supplies supportive

Futures working to ration demand

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Published: April 16, 2025

ICE canola weekly outlook: Tightening supplies supportive

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — ICE Futures canola contracts remained in a steady uptrend during the week ended April 16, despite the ongoing global tariff uncertainty, hitting their highest levels of the past year on a nearby weekly chart.

“We’re going to run out of canola soon, so the price has to stay strong,” said Lawrence Klusa of Seges Markets.

While Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimates total canola exports during the current marketing year at 7.5 million tonnes, the country has already moved 7.2 million tonnes with three-and-a-half months left in the marketing year. “So, there won’t be much left here shortly,” said Klusa.

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With the July canola contract settling at C$680.70 per tonne on April 16, Klusa said values could eventually test the C$700 per tonne level.

Jamie Wilton of RJ O’Brien also tied the strength in the futures to the tightening balance sheet. Speculators covering short positions and moving to the long side of the market were also supportive.

Wilton expected canola area this spring could see a bump from the rising prices, especially given where wheat bids are in comparison.

However, while canola prices are strong, Klusa expected uncertainty over Chinese and U.S. tariffs were likely keeping farmers cautious as far as adjusting acres to any large extent despite the fact canola products are still moving to the U.S. and seed to China.

Both analysts said a lack of clarity on biofuel policy out of the United States was keeping some caution in the market.

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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