Glacier FarmMedia—The ICE Futures canola market fell sharply lower during the first few trading days of June, taking out several former support levels on the way down as large old crop supplies, relatively favourable new crop production prospects and speculative fund selling weighed on prices.
“The seasonal peaks are already in,” said senior analyst Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm, adding “we’ve tested the upside, and we may test the downside unless we run into some crop adversity in the weeks to come.”
The November contract hit a session high of C$696.70 per tonne on May 29, but was more C$50 off that high a few days later settling at C$642.00 on June 5. Jubinville expected a retest of the highs was unlikely in the short term without any outside influence, with values instead flirting with major downside support.
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“I can’t see any reason why we would rally,” said Jubinville, adding that “C$640 (per tonne) on the November is an important area to hold.”
However, while canola may trade within a wide range through the growing season, Jubinville noted that Canadian canola was looking more attractively priced for global buyers with China thought to already be in the market making new crop purchases.
