Glacier FarmMedia – While the start of the week of Apr. 8 saw canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange trade in a very narrow range, broker Jamie Wilton of RJ O’Brien in Winnipeg said that could soon change.
Wilton said canola will take direction from the next monthly report from the United States Department of Agriculture. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are scheduled to be published on Apr. 11 at 11 am CDT.
As to which direction canola would take, Wilton said “it depends on what [the report] says.”
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“Until then we are pretty much stalled out here,” he added.
The April report is largely expected to be standpat, as the USDA will use acreage estimates from earlier this year. The latest forecasts for planted acres are set to be included in the May WASDE.
However, the trade predicted changes to U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 as well as production numbers for Brazil and Argentina.
CHS Hedging reported the average trade guess for the U.S. soybean carryover is to rise two million bushels at 317.0 million. Also, Brazilian output is to pull back from the 155.0 million tonnes the USDA estimate in March to 151.7 million, while that for Argentina is to bump up from 50.0 million tonnes to 50.5 million. Additionally, global soybean ending stocks are to ease back 560,000 tonnes at 113.7 million.
Wilton stated that at this time the Prairie weather is not yet a factor but will change once canola planting across the region is well underway.
Despite less than average snowfall on the Prairies this winter, more recent precipitation and the forecast calling for rain during the week of April 15, would improve soil moisture levels.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg
