MarketsFarm — Large shipments of corn from the U.S., slated for delivery to Alberta’s feedlot alley, should keep domestic barley prices under pressure going forward, according to an analyst.
“The barley price here will gradually decline,” said Errol Anderson of Pro Market Communications in Calgary, adding that up to 30 unit trains of U.S. corn were booked already.
A 100-car unit train typically amounts to about 8,000 to 10,000 tonnes of grain.
“Once these cattle go onto corn, they won’t go back to barley — they’re done for the year,” said Anderson. He noted feeders like using corn, as it’s cheaper than barley.
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In addition, “the export price is still at quite a discount to the domestic… so it’s not like the export market will suddenly compete with the domestic market.”
With feedlots booking corn, “the market has already planned its course for the rest of the marketing year,” Anderson said.
Feed barley in Alberta is currently trading at anywhere from $7.33 per bushel to as high as $9.91 per bushel, delivered to the elevator, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data.
Weekly U.S. export sales data shows that Canadian corn imports are currently running well behind the year-ago level, when drought cut into Canada’s domestic grain supplies. The U.S. has exported 67,200 tonnes of corn to Canada as of Nov. 24, with 208,800 tonnes of outstanding business yet to move. That compares with exports of 426,500 tonnes and an additional 1.6 million tonnes of outstanding business at the same time a year ago.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
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