Glacier FarmMedia – Planting of the spring wheat in the United States continues to be off to an excellent start, according to Tom Lilja of Progressive Ag in Fargo. Meanwhile, the heavy rains that fell as of May 21 are very likely to lead to less corn being seeded with U.S. farmers switching to soybeans.
Lilja noted the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported 79 per cent of the country’s spring wheat was in the ground as of May 19 advancing 18 points on the week, putting planting 14 points ahead of the five-year average.
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“So a lot of wheat got in at a good time. We’re getting some rains, so we would anticipate that the first spring wheat ratings of the year will be very favourable,” Lilja said.
Most often the USDA publishes its first spring wheat ratings when more than 70 per cent of the crop has been planted, he said.
“Minneapolis wheat just might have a harder time if those condition ratings are really good,” Lilja commented.
Last year, the USDA didn’t issue its first spring wheat ratings until 93 per cent of the crop was planted. At that time, June 4, 76 per cent of the crop had emerged with it rating 64 per cent good to excellent.
However, the weather in Russia and Europe could have a positive effect on the North American markets. Lilja pointed to the severe frost Russia recently experienced, taking a big chunk out of production forecasts. He said Rusia’s IKAR estimated 900,000 hectares of wheat was damaged by the frosts, with the consultancy chopping 2.5 million tonnes from its output projection of 83.5 million tonnes with others following suit.
“I do think this Russian frost event was the biggest market influencer n the last two weeks as to why the market went up,” Lilja stated. “We’re in a weather market now. Things are moving after we just sat there all winter, looking at some pretty low prices.”
Meanwhile, he said U.S. winter wheat has seen its ratings improve from last year’s drought. The USDA placed this year’s crop at 49 per cent good to excellent, 18 points higher than a year ago.
As for corn, he stressed the storms that brought heavy rains to parts of the U.S. Midwest will reduce planted acres.
“We’re going to be pretty slow. The ‘I states’, Minnesota and Nebraska, they’re estimating 12.3 million acres of corn are still left to plant. Now we are getting a lot of rain. It’s more likely that corn planted acres will not be the 90 million the USDA forecast in March,” Lilja said.
For soybeans, he noted planting advanced eight points at 52 per cent finished, which is three points ahead of the five-year average.
“With the rains and if we get a wet last half of May, that will tend to favour soybean acres,” being planted Lilja said.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg
