MarketsFarm — All eyes in the Chicago grain and oilseed markets are focused on weather conditions as the South American harvest progresses and North American farmers begin seeding their next crop.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand report (WASDE), released Tuesday, left ending stocks projections for both soybeans and corn in the country unchanged from the previous month.
With the USDA report now factored into the market, “we’ve completely flipped over to weather,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International in Chicago.
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USDA adjusts supply/demand estimates
Corn and soybean yields in the United States were left unchanged in the latest supply/demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, released July 11, although a reduction in harvested area led to small downward revisions to production for the crops.
Nearby forecasts call for warm temperatures across the Midwest and fields should dry out in most areas over the next week, he said.
Aside from the Red River basin in North Dakota/Minnesota, where there is still a heavy snowpack, “I think we’ll see rapid corn planting elsewhere and get a start on the soybeans as well… which might pressure the market going forward,” he added.
From a pricing standpoint, he expected to see sideways ranges for soybeans, corn and wheat, with the trend lower.
“Going forward, the market feels a little heavy,” Reilly said.
However, corn has seen some good export demand recently, while a lack of producer sales out of Argentina might support soymeal prices, underpinning beans as well. Reilly noted the U.S. and Brazil were both reporting good soymeal exports over the past month, which should continue as long as Argentina remains out of the picture.
For wheat, declining condition ratings for the U.S. winter wheat crop in the southern Plains were propping up higher-protein wheat prices. Recent export tenders were also supportive, although Reilly noted uncertainty over the Black Sea grain shipping corridor was keeping some caution in the market.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
