MarketsFarm — Of the changes to 2021-22 ending stocks in the latest supply and demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Wednesday, the global carryover for wheat was perhaps the most significant, according to Steve Georgy of Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill.
In its March world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE), USDA noted the war in Ukraine “significantly increases the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally.”
To that end, USDA said its March numbers were “an initial assessment of the short-term impacts.”
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That meant USDA bumped up its call on global wheat ending stocks to 281.51 million tonnes for a 1.2 per cent increase from the department’s February report. Otherwise, Georgy said, the numbers were pretty much in line with trade expectations going into the report.
As wheat has risen dramatically since Russia invaded Ukraine almost two weeks ago, the May and some other contracts for Chicago and Kansas City May wheat often hit their daily limits, with Minneapolis hitting its limit a few times. However, those prices turned sour on Wednesday, falling limit-down.
“We’re trading so far above any fundamental number [that] you go macro-selling across the scale,” Georgy said, noting corn, soybeans, cattle, hogs and the energies were all falling.
For U.S. ending stocks, Georgy said USDA’s estimates were within market predictions, although corn came in a little below those expectations, with a little more soybeans and wheat than initially thought.
USDA WASDE
Table 1. U.S. ending stocks (billions of bushels)
| Crop | Feb ’22. . | Mar’22. . | +/- (pct) |
| Soybeans | 0.325 | 0.285 | -12.3 |
| Corn | 1.540 | 1.440 | -6.5 |
| Wheat | 0.648 | 0.653 | +0.8 |
Table 2. U.S. exports (billions of bushels)
| Crop | Feb ’22. . | Mar ’22. . | +/- (pct) |
| Soybeans | 2.050 | 2.090 | +2.0 |
| Corn | 2.425 | 2.500 | +3.1 |
| Wheat | 1.943 | 1.933 | -0.5 |
Table 3. Global ending stocks (millions of tonnes)
| Crop | Feb ’22. . | Mar ’22. . | +/- (pct) |
| Soybeans | 92.83 | 89.96 | -3.1 |
| Corn | 302.22 | 300.97 | -0.4 |
| Wheat | 278.21 | 281.51 | +1.2 |
Table 4. South American production (millions of tonnes)
| Crop | Feb ’22. . | Mar ’22. . | +/- (pct) |
| Argentina corn | 54.00 | 53.00 | -1.9 |
| Brazil corn | 114.00 | 114.00 | 0.0 |
| Argentina soybeans. . | 46.50 | 43.50 | -6.5 |
| Brazil soybeans | 134.00 | 127.00 | -5.1 |
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE), released March 9, 2022. Numbers from Feb. 9, 2022 WASDE report included for comparison.
