MarketsFarm — Ahead of the April supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodities said he expects ending stocks to increase — while planted acres are likely to change.
“After looking at the [quarterly grain] stocks numbers, you would think they would be lowering ending stocks just a little bit,” he said.
USDA recently reported total farm/commercial soybean stocks for March 1 were at 1.69 billion bushels, while total corn stocks came in at 7.4 billion bushels and total wheat stocks were about 946 million. The trio were all lower than the quarterly stocks from the previous March.
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Capinegro also noted China has picked up its buying of U.S. grain.
“Of course it’s not shipped yet, but you should check that off from the ending stocks. Then you add them back when they start cancelling,” he said.
Capinegro said there likely will be a nice rally in corn and soybeans prices during April and May that could extend into the first part of June.
“If we get a nice rally that could be the highs for the year too,” he said.
As for planted corn acres, Capinegro said the 92 million projected by USDA are very likely the high end. He estimated those acres at 91 million to 91.2 million, with farmers in some part of the northern Plains likely switching to soybeans due to wet conditions.
USDA last Friday projected 2023-24 planted acres for soybeans at 87.5 million, close to what was seeded the year before. Also, corn would exceed the 88.6 million planted in 2022-23. Winter wheat acres were set at 37.5 million, up slightly from the previous year, while spring wheat is to ease back at 10.6 million, with durum bumping up to 1.8 million.
“I’m projecting now, on April 5. Four to five weeks from now, is the weather co-operating or is it getting too wet?” he suggested.
On the flip side, with drought throughout much of the southern Plains, Capinegro said there could be farmers plowing under their winter wheat.
USDA’s crop progress report on Monday pegged winter wheat at 28 per cent good to excellent, for its lowest rating in about 20 years. Depending on local conditions, those farmers would then switch to corn or soybeans, thus skewing the projections.
If rains do come in time on the southern Plains, that could save the winter wheat which is now coming out of dormancy, Capinegro said.
USDA is scheduled to release its April world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on Tuesday (April 11) at 11 a.m. CT.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
