MarketsFarm — For the most part, the latest monthly supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture provided little in terms of major changes from its September report.
USDA issued its October world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) during the late morning Wednesday, with much of the data fairly close to market expectations.
Ryan Ettner, broker with Allendale Inc. at Fort McHenry, Ill., noted the carryout for corn was something of an exception. He said the trade was seeking a cut of 95 million bushels compared to last month’s report, but USDA only trimmed off 47 million. That brought corn ending stocks to 1.17 billion bushels.
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“From the pre-buying we had going into the report, I would actually say the corn trade on a 47 million-bushel cut pretty much keeps in line with much of the same levels as you saw in trade through September,” he said.
For the nearby corn contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade, that saw prices on Wednesday hold firm to ease back by a small amount.
“While corn was sideways, soybeans have a low enough carryout at 200 million bushels to say that beans could see a few more days going higher before they level off,” Ettner said.
While the average market expectation was for the soybean carryover to bump up to 248 million bushels, USDA trimmed its call on yields.
Ettner noted USDA on Wednesday announced large sale of soybeans to China, amounting to 526,000 tonnes. He suggested if more large purchases continue to be made by China, Chicago soybeans will likely rally further.
As for wheat, he said USDA’s report didn’t provide much guidance to push either way, stating that actions made by Russia are the main influence.
“If you don’t have anything exciting to talk about Russia, then wheat eases lower,” Ettner said.
However, the broker stressed wheat has seen very large upticks, sometimes pushing daily limits, when there has been fresh news regarding Russia.
“It’s an aggressive high day combined with little lower days,” he explained, noting that wheat remains trending higher.
Table: Excerpts from USDA’s October 2022 WASDE report. Yields in bushels per acre; production and carryover in millions of bushels.
| Crop, | September. . | October. . | September | October | September. . | October |
| 2022-23 | yields | yields | production. . | production. . | carryover | carryover |
| Wheat | 47.5 | 46.5 | 1,783 | 1,650 | 610 | 576 |
| Corn | 172.5 | 171.9 | 13,944 | 13,895 | 1,219 | 1,172 |
| Soybeans. . | 50.5 | 49.8 | 4,378 | 4,313 | 200 | 200 |
