MarketsFarm — With expectations of far fewer prevent-planting acres for 2023-24, Terry Reilly of Futures International has called for increases in planted area for corn, soybeans and wheat in the U.S. this spring.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is scheduled to release its planting projections on March 31.
Reilly pegged planted corn acres at 91 million, up from USDA’s call of 88.58 million planted for 2022-23. He projected soybeans to go from 87.45 million to 89 million acres.
As for winter wheat acres, he set his forecast at 36.95 million versus the 33.27 million that went into the ground last year. Spring wheat is to expand from 10.84 million acres to 11.2 million and durum is seen nudging up from 1.63 million to 1.7 million.
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“We had big prevent-planting last year. I think at these prices there’s no reason for producers to not plant all the way up to the [fence] rows,” Reilly said.
He placed U.S. planted canola acres at 2.1 million, down slightly from last year’s 2.23 million. In comparison, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimated Canadian canola acres for 2023-24 to be 21.75 million.
Also on March 31, USDA is set to issue its quarterly grain stocks report. At this time Reilly only had his estimate for soybeans, expecting total stocks at 1.76 billion bushels compared to 1.93 billion a year ago.
Besides the influences of market projections for planted acres and grain stocks, Reilly said there are a number of outside influences putting pressure on the commodities at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) between now and the end of March.
Although China has recently picked up its purchases of U.S. corn and soybeans, Reilly noted continuing worries over inflation, improving U.S. weather, Brazil’s soybean harvest and the rapid progress of that country’s second corn crop.
The Black Sea grain deal was extended for at least 60 days, which has “a that’s-negative undertone,” he said.
“It’s really a big unknown where we’re headed,” Reilly said of the markets.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
