Glacier FarmMedia—Projected corn acres at the lower end of trade expectations was the most notable news after the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports on March 28.
The USDA estimated 90.036 million corn acres for 2024-25, down 1.44 million from the average trade estimate and down 4.405 million from last year’s total.
“90 million acres. No one was expecting that,” said Sean Lusk, vice-president of Walsh Trading Inc. in Chicago. “You have 250,000 shorts (for corn) that got caught with their pants down. From that standpoint, it is very friendly. For new crop corn, the expectation is we don’t know what production’s going to be now.”
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Soybean acres were only 20,000 below the average trade estimate at 86.51 million, but 2.91 million above last year’s total. All wheat acres were projected at 47.498 million, 168,000 less than the average estimate and 2.077 million less than one year ago. Spring wheat acres are expected to rise 135,000 acres from last year at 11.335 million, while durum is also set to add 352,000 acres at 2.028 million.
As for March 1 stocks, corn totaled 8.347 billion bushels, 80 million below the average trade estimate, but 951 million more than the year before. Soybean stocks were 1.845 billion, 17 million above the average trade guess and 158 million above last year’s figure. All wheat was at 1.087 billion, 43 million more than the trade’s average and 146 million more than on March 1, 2023.
Prices for corn and Chicago soft wheat finished March 28 with double-digit rises for the day, while soybeans stayed relatively steady. Scott Capinegro, a Barrington, Ill.-based strategist for AgMarket.net, said there was still a bit of action for soybeans and wheat.
“Remember, funds were still short. This might be a wake-up call for them, for sure,” he said.
Prior to the report, the news that cattle in Texas, Kansas and New Mexico have contracted avian flu has brought uncertainty to grain prices, according to Capinegro, but he added that the trade may just be looking for a catalyst.
“(It’s) searching for anything to move a market right now,” Capinegro said. “A good section of Brazil is still going to be a little bit on the dry side even though they’re touching some rain. That’s something more important to watch. Of course, we don’t need a wet spring.”
Weather in both North and South America will be what the trade will watch for at the start of April. There is also a need for catch-up sales, according to Capinegro.
“Longer term, down the road here, the weather looks halfway decent. The trade is on the bearish side,” he said. “We could be looking at the higher end of corn if (the May contract) goes to US$4.60 (per bushel).”
—Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.
