Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — With the United States weather forecast calling for rain on April 18 and 21, planting progress could come to a quick stop, said broker Scott Capinegro of AgMarket.net in Chicago.
“It’s going to depend on Friday’s and Monday’s rains coming through Missouri and parts of Illinois,” he commented.
Capinegro said the Easter rains are expected to drop about three inches, but there’s a chance some areas of the U.S. Midwest could get up to six inches, and that would delay any further seeding.
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“You will need a full week of dry days with heat,” he said.
Crop progress
The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its second crop progress report of 2025, listed corn planted as doubling to four per cent complete as of April 13, while soybeans planted registered for the first time this year at two per cent seeded. Spring wheat planted progressed four points to seven per cent finished, which matched the average pace. The three crops were on or very near their respective average paces.
Besides the weather outlook, Capinegro said the U.S. dollar is also affecting the markets as the greenback slipped below 100 points on its dollar index while gold futures continued to push well above US$3,200 per ounce.
“The world trade is ‘sell the U.S. bonds and buy the gold,’” the broker stated.
The Trump factor
With the Easter, Capinegro cautioned that any comments from U.S. President Donald Trump could shake up the markets as well after trading resumes Sunday evening.
“Anything can some out of the president’s mouth on a three-day weekend,” he warned.
As for the federal biofuel tax credits, Capinegro said the Trump administration has yet to make an announcement.
“There’s a committee, they’re talking about it. They will come up with some plan, but nothing is finalized yet,” he noted.
In January, changes were made to the 45Z tax credit, which eliminated canola, which raised concerns within the U.S. biofuel industry as well as the Canadian canola industry. It’s unknown at this time if the administration will keep the changes, revert back to the previous format, or scrap the tax credit entirely.
