MarketsFarm — Total 2023-24 winter crop production in Australia, at an estimated 45.2 million tonnes, is expected to be 34 per cent off the record highs hit last year but slightly above the June forecast as upward revisions to canola and barley counter a downward revision to the wheat number, according to the latest crop report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
Persistent dry conditions in northern growing regions cut into yield prospects, although southern regions received better-than-expected rainfall which helped crops there, according to the report.
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Total canola production in the country is now forecast at 5.2 million tonnes, which would be up by 300,000 tonnes from the June estimate, but well below the 8.3 million tonnes grown in 2022-23.
Barley production is forecast at 10.5 million tonnes, which would be down 26 per cent on the year and six per cent below the 10-year average but still up from the 9.9 million tonnes forecast in June.
Australia’s 2023-24 wheat crop is projected to be 25.4 million tonnes by ABARES, down by 200,000 from the June forecast and 36 per cent lower on the year.
“While El Niño is expected to develop and reduce production prospects, the extent to which it influences Australian rainfall and temperatures presents a key downside risk to the outlook,” the ABARES report said.
“Analysis of past El Niño events suggests that climate impacts can be variable. If conditions are even drier and hotter than expected, this is likely to see crop prospects deteriorate further in regions where winter crops have little soil moisture.”
