MarketsFarm has released its first yield estimates for Western Canada’s crops and the outlook is grim.
Analyst Bruce Burnett just recently completed a crop tour covering most of Saskatchewan.
“Unfortunately, I don’t have a lot of good news on the crop front,” he told growers attending the Ag in Motion show in Langham, Sask.
“There has been a lot of damage done to the crop this year because of drought.”
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Spring wheat yields for Western Canada are pegged at 46 bushels per acre, down 11 per cent from last year.
Canola is forecast at 33 bu., a 13 per cent drop.
Barley is estimated at 56 bu., a 20 per cent decline.
Durum yields are expected to come in at 26 bu. per acre, a 24 per cent freefall.
Burnett said the odds of losing bushels in the coming weeks is greater than gaining them, due to a hot and dry weather forecast for the Prairie region.
Production of major crops such as spring wheat, canola and barley is forecast to be down nine to 11 per cent compared to last year.
Smaller crops such as durum, lentils, peas and oats will be hit harder, with production falling between 20 and 49 per cent.
The global durum market needed 7.5 to eight million tonnes of production out of Canada, but it will be closer to four million tonnes.
There is huge demand for durum out of North Africa, so expect prices to rise, said Burnett.
The same is true with other crops where Canada is the major global supplier, such as lentils.
Burnett was asked if canola prices will return to last year’s lofty levels of $20 per bushel.
He said that will largely depend on the U.S. soybean crop. The forecast for the corn belt is for hot and dry conditions over the next few weeks, so $20 is at least in the realm of possibility.
Global vegetable oil stocks are already tight and a small palm oil harvest is expected this year. If the U.S. soybean crop falters, vegetable oil prices will climb, pulling canola along for the ride.
Burnett said Western Canada’s dismal yield prospects are due to poor subsoil conditions in the western half of the Prairie region heading into the growing season, followed by lacklustre rain so far this year.
A lot of the crops with the biggest production declines, such as durum and lentils, are produced in southwestern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta, where drought is most pronounced.
Burnett said the agriculture industry won’t have to wait too long to see if his yield forecasts are correct because the crop is about seven to 10 days ahead of normal development.
Harvest is going to be early this year.
— Sean Pratt reports for the Western Producer from Saskatoon.
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