MarketsFarm — Dry conditions in much of the Prairies this spring may leave seeding areas relatively unchanged ahead of Statistic Canada’s (StatCan) principal field crop report, due to be released Wednesday.
It will be the second survey-based acreage report for the 2023-24 marketing year, after the first one was released in April. While growing conditions have been dry across the Prairies this season so far, there were few waterlogged fields keeping growers away.
Analysts’ projections are very narrow in range and StatCan’s April estimates fell within those projections, except for canola. MarketsFarm expert Bruce Burnett said the warm temperatures helped farmers go out and seed their fields.
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“The weather was pretty conducive to plantings and there weren’t many big changes from that,” he said. “(There are) some slight changes. A little bit lower on durum, a little bit lower on spring wheat…canola, a little bit higher.”
Though they differed on wheat acreage, MarketsFarm PRO analyst Mike Jubinville shared Burnett’s sentiment for the most part.
“(The) biasing trend relative to last year (seems to be) more wheat, canola and barley and less pulses and oats,” he said.
StatCan’s April estimates were subject to scrutiny as they were based on a survey conducted during December 2022 and January 2023, two months earlier than in past surveys. However, Burnett doesn’t believe that StatCan’s own estimates will stray too far from pre-report expectations.
“I don’t think there’s latitude for huge changes,” he said. “Relatively speaking, prices really haven’t changed that much.” However, Burnett added that lower prices in durum and spring wheat may have caused a slight reduction in acres for both.
Ken Ball from Winnipeg-based PI Financial also doesn’t believe there will be any large shifts in acres.
“The feedback I’ve got from my customers is that even though some areas were delayed in seeding due to wetness, most farmers seemed to press ahead and didn’t do any major acreage shifting towards the latter part of seeding,” he said.
“Based on that, I expect those numbers to come out very close to the intentions numbers…We’re uncertain about whether (StatCan’s) new method of gathering intentions in winter makes any sense or not.”
However, Jon Driedger of Leftfield Commodity Research in Winnipeg said another factor could slightly shift acres.
“Crop insurance coverage rates weren’t known (last winter). Does that shift some acreage decisions around the margins? Possibly,” he said.
Analysts are expecting canola acres to range between 21.6 million and 21.9 million acres, slightly above the 21.597 million estimated by StatCan in April and more than 200,000 acres above the 2022-23 marketing year. Jerry Klassen of Resilient Commodity Analysis in Winnipeg said the additional acres can be found in central Alberta and central Saskatchewan.
“We saw fertilizer prices trend lower throughout the spring,” he said, estimating 21.6 million acres. “I think we might see a little increase in canola.”
“Most of the canola growing areas were planted in a timely fashion,” Burnett added.
Acreage estimates for all wheat, including durum, may end up lower than the April estimates.
“I just drove the durum region last week and I think there’s a fair amount of durum, maybe a (few more) acres because durum held a pretty significant premium over spring wheat during the spring period. I think it caused a bit of a bump up in the peripheral areas of durum,” Klassen recounted, adding he estimates more spring wheat acres as well.
On the other hand, Burnett is less excited about wheat.
“The spread between durum and (spring) wheat narrowed in from when they did the survey (last winter). Since the previous report, we’ve seen some things come down. That’s the reason wheat area drops off a little bit.”
Despite warmer weather in Ontario, analysts are predicting a slight drop-off in soybean acres. Meanwhile, lower prices and a large supply are bringing oat estimates below three million acres, with barley picking up some of them.
“(Oats) is one we could see a bit more of a drop that is a little bit more pronounced,” Driedger said.
Pea and lentil acreage are also leaning towards declines with the latter seeing some disease issues, according to Klassen.
“The theme this year in Western Canada is farmers focusing on the main crops: canola, spring wheat, durum, barley. And they’re shying away from the specialty crops,” he said.
Table: A recap of pre-report expectations. StatCan’s April 2023 principal field crop acreage estimates, as well as its acreage totals for the 2022-23 marketing year, are provided for comparison purposes. Figures in millions of acres.
| Trade | StatCan, | StatCan, | |
| Crop | projections | April 2023. . | 2022-23 |
| Barley | 7.000 – 7.600 | 7.085 | 7.045 |
| Canola | 21.600 – 21.900 | 21.597 | 21.396 |
| Lentils | 3.800 – 4.000 | 3.976 | 4.321 |
| Oats | 2.500 – 3.100 | 3.056 | 3.937 |
| Peas | 3.000 – 3.250 | 3.212 | 3.368 |
| All wheat *. . | 26.420 – 27.000. . | 26.968 | 25.388 |
| Durum | 5.800 – 6.100 | 6.062 | 6.006 |
| Soybeans | 5.000 – 5.600 | 5.512 | 5.274 |
* – “All wheat” includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter wheat remaining after winterkill.
