AAFC’s June supply/demand estimates mostly unchanged

Corn exports adjusted upward

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Published: June 22, 2023

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(Dave Bedard/File photo)

MarketsFarm — Monthly supply/demand projections from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada were left mostly unchanged in June, as the department awaits updated acreage estimates from Statistics Canada at the end of the month.

Only corn saw any adjustments in the numbers from May, with a 200,000-tonne increase in 2022-23 exports, now at 2.05 million tonnes, resulting in 100,000-tonne reductions in current- and new-crop corn ending stocks at 2.4 million and 2.2 million tonnes respectively.

Wheat ending stocks were left unchanged at 3.98 million tonnes for 2022-23 and 5.8 million tonnes in 2023-24. Canola ending stocks were also left unchanged at the relatively tight levels of 650,000 tonnes for the current crop year and 600,000 tonnes in 2023-24.

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Predicted average prices did see some adjustment on many crops, with 2022-23 canola prices raised to $840 per tonne, from $805 per tonne in May, while new-crop expectations were lowered by $20, to $680 per tonne.

Average wheat bids, excluding durum, were pegged at $400 per tonne in 2022-23, from $410 in May. New-crop wheat prices were revised down by $5 from May, now at $370 per tonne.

In its commentary, AAFC cautioned that “volatility in the world’s grain markets remains above normal on generally unseasonably warm Northern Hemisphere temperatures and mixed moisture conditions along with the disruptions caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine.”

Tables: June estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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