MarketsFarm — Monthly supply/demand projections from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada were left mostly unchanged in June, as the department awaits updated acreage estimates from Statistics Canada at the end of the month.
Only corn saw any adjustments in the numbers from May, with a 200,000-tonne increase in 2022-23 exports, now at 2.05 million tonnes, resulting in 100,000-tonne reductions in current- and new-crop corn ending stocks at 2.4 million and 2.2 million tonnes respectively.
Wheat ending stocks were left unchanged at 3.98 million tonnes for 2022-23 and 5.8 million tonnes in 2023-24. Canola ending stocks were also left unchanged at the relatively tight levels of 650,000 tonnes for the current crop year and 600,000 tonnes in 2023-24.
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USDA adjusts supply/demand estimates
Corn and soybean yields in the United States were left unchanged in the latest supply/demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, released July 11, although a reduction in harvested area led to small downward revisions to production for the crops.
Predicted average prices did see some adjustment on many crops, with 2022-23 canola prices raised to $840 per tonne, from $805 per tonne in May, while new-crop expectations were lowered by $20, to $680 per tonne.
Average wheat bids, excluding durum, were pegged at $400 per tonne in 2022-23, from $410 in May. New-crop wheat prices were revised down by $5 from May, now at $370 per tonne.
In its commentary, AAFC cautioned that “volatility in the world’s grain markets remains above normal on generally unseasonably warm Northern Hemisphere temperatures and mixed moisture conditions along with the disruptions caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine.”
Tables: June estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
