MarketsFarm — Canadian wheat and canola production are both expected to come in above earlier expectations in updated supply/demand projections from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released Thursday.
However, while wheat stocks are also expected to rise, the canola carryout was revised lower due to expected increases in exports and domestic usage.
The government agency raised its forecast for total Canadian wheat production in 2022-23 to 33.719 million tonnes, which compares with the June estimate of 33.092 million and the year-ago level of 21.652 million tonnes when drought cut into yields.
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With only minor adjustments in the wheat usage numbers, the ending stocks for 2022-23 were raised to 5.7 million tonnes from an estimated five million in June. That compares with the 2021-22 projected carryout of 3.65 million tonnes.
For canola, total production was forecast at 18.4 million tonnes, which would be up by 450,000 from the June estimate and well above the year-ago level of 12.595 million.
Exports and domestic usage for canola were both raised from earlier projections, causing the expected carryout for 2022-23 to dip to 450,000 from an estimated 500,000 tonnes in June. Canola ending stocks for the current marketing year were left unchanged at 400,000 tonnes.
Pulses and special crops only saw minor adjustments on the month.
Table: July estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
