Glacier FarmMedia – Canadian canola and wheat carryout for the 2023/24 marketing year will likely end up above earlier projections, according to the latest Outlook for Principal Field Crops from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released Dec. 15.
The usage and ending stocks adjustments account for updated production estimates released by Statistics Canada earlier in the month.
With canola production up by nearly a million tonnes from earlier estimates, at 18.328 million tonnes, canola ending stocks for 2023/24 were raised to 1.450 million tonnes from 1.000 million in November. That compares with the 1.506 million-tonne carryout reported the previous year. Canola exports were left unchanged at 7.700 million tonnes, which would be down slightly from the 7.954 million tonnes in 2022/23. Meanwhile, domestic usage for canola was raised by about 500,000 tonnes, to 10.784 million and roughly on par with 2022/23.
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Projected wheat ending stocks were only up by 350,000 tonnes from November, at 3.950 million tonnes, despite a two million tonne increase in production to 31.954 million tonnes. Wheat exports for the marketing year are now forecast at 23.200 million tonnes, from 21.300 million in November and 25.666 million a year ago. Domestic wheat usage was down slightly from November and the year-ago, at 8.587 million tonnes.
Other highlights of the report included a 200,000 tonne increase in the barley carryout, to 750,000 tonnes. Pea ending stocks are forecast to be much more comfortable than earlier estimates, now at 570,000 tonnes from 275,000 tonnes. However, the projected lentil carryout was cut in half to only 50,000 tonnes.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
