Chicago / Reuters – At 47.1 bushels an acre, last month’s soybean yield estimate from the U.S. Department of Agriculture was a new all-time high. And the average trader estimate for the USDA’s November projection is higher still, at 47.608 bushels. Even so, the long-term relationship between corn and soybeans suggests current soybean yields remain relatively […] Read more
Grain ‘trade’ at risk of low-balling U.S. soybean yields: Maguire
Put buyers bet CBOT wheat’s strength won’t last
Reuters — Chicago wheat prices may have rallied more than 10 per cent since October 1, but judging by a jump in bearish put option positions tied to the March delivery slot, they are likely to turn lower going into the New Year. More than 3,600 put options were bought at the $4.80, $4.90 and […] Read more
Options suggest soymeal tumble postponed till Jan.
Reuters — Soymeal traders have been bracing for a steep decline in U.S. meal prices for the past several months as a record-large soybean crop was planted and grown. Indeed, traders racked up large positions in bearish put options tied to December soymeal futures throughout last summer, indicating widespread expectations that U.S. meal prices would […] Read more
Analysis: Spring/HRW wheat spread playing tricks on wheat traders
Minneapolis spring wheat was supposed to have regained a premium over Kansas City hard red winter wheat by now, after having slipped to a rare discount to its lesser-grade cousin at the end of September. But instead spring wheat’s discount to HRW has widened even further, flying in the face of expectations that the end […] Read more
Analysis: Speculators, commercials in rare corn position tango
Usually, large speculators and commercial traders take opposing positions in the corn futures and options market, with speculators favoring long exposure while commercials typically sit heavily short in reflection of their naturally long stance in the physical arena. But this year’s critically low levels of domestic corn supplies have forced commercial players to whittle down […] Read more
Analysis: China, Egypt import tussle could reignite wheat market
China and Egypt look set to duke it out for top spot on the world wheat import rankings in 2013. Frost and heavy rains shaved millions of tonnes off the Chinese wheat crop this year and traditional number one importer Egypt finally regained access to sufficient financial resources to resume wheat imports following two years […] Read more
Analysis: Options plays show most traders are bearish on beans
New-crop November soybean futures prices have been in a holding pattern lately on either side of $12.50 a bushel as market participants bide their time ahead of the 2013 crop’s most critical and rain-dependent developmental phase during the first half of August. But judging by the fact that there are nearly four times as many […] Read more
Short covering surge could boost U.S. wheat
The U.S. Department of Agriculture just upwardly revised U.S. wheat production prospects on the back of better-than-expected yield reports emerging from the ongoing U.S. harvest. But even as harvest progress continues to weigh on near-term market sentiment, wheat prices are at risk of pushing higher as global demand prospects pick up and jittery short-biased speculative […] Read more
Chinese buying could push soybeans over $20
The July-September quarter is traditionally a soft period for U.S. soybean exports as the world’s top buyers of the oilseed typically divert their buying interest to South American suppliers while the U.S. crop rounds out the growing season. But the shortage of supplies in Brazil and Argentina following this year’s drought in that region has […] Read more
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