Crude oil prices have been under pressure since a two-week reversal developed 12 weeks ago. This reversal pattern materialized after crude oil prices failed to exceed the upper boundary of the uptrending channel. A two-week reversal indicates a change in direction and can occur at the top or bottom of a market. This two-week reversal […] Read more
Drozd: Main trend in crude oil still up, despite recent downturn
Drozd: Reversal pattern alerted producers to cattle price downturn
Cattle prices have been sliding lower, since a two-week reversal developed in early April. This reversal pattern identified a quick halt to the rally after cattle prices climbed to an unprecedented historical high of $122.875. Two-week reversal This chart formation indicates a change in direction and can occur at the top or bottom of a […] Read more
Drozd: Weak U.S. dollar lends underlying support to commodity prices
The U.S. dollar dipped below 74.00 last week, posting a 32-month low. Prices have not been this low since August 2008. The U.S. dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency and it is traded at the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE), the world’s centralized price discovery point for the U.S. dollar index. The U.S. dollar index is a […] Read more
Drozd: Soybean oil lends underlying support to canola
The oilseed complex has been well supported by the strong vegetable oil market. This is evidenced by the steep uptrending channel illustrated on the monthly soybean oil chart. This rally began with the development of a “two-month reversal” back in July 2010. This particular “two-month reversal” is seen at the bottom of a downtrend and […] Read more
Drozd: Feeder cattle prices rally to end 2010 on new historical high
What a difference a year makes! In December 2009 feeder cattle prices were down challenging an area of support at $90. Prices quickly bounced off the line of support, as illustrated in the accompanying chart, and by the end of December a two-month reversal materialized, which indicated prices were about to turn back up. In […] Read more
Drozd: Two-week reversal signifies bottoming action in U.S. dollar index
The U.S. dollar had been under pressure since prices peaked at 89.098 in June 2010. However, that price slide came to an abrupt halt shortly after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced another US$600 billion stimulus package at 1:15 p.m. CT on Nov. 3. Listening to the news, one would have thought this highly anticipated announcement […] Read more
Drozd: Record-high cotton prices lent underlying support to soybeans
Cotton prices on Nov. 4 reached $1.4052 per pound, the highest price since this fibre began trading 140 years ago. Prices have doubled in the past 12 months amid a supply shortage and increasing demand, especially in emerging markets in Asia. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates 2010-11 world ending stocks will be down 26 […] Read more
Drozd: Canadian dollar fails to reach par
Dec. 10 — The Canadian dollar was supposed to go par. At least this was the hype when the market peaked at US97.98 cents on Oct. 15. When a commodity makes the headlines of major newspapers and magazines, it is often a tell-tale sign that it is near the end of the rally. When most […] Read more
Drozd: Two-week reversal indicates soybean prices will be pressured
There is a seasonal tendency for grain prices to come under pressure during harvest, as increased deliveries weigh on futures prices and basis levels deteriorate as merchants are offered more grain for sale than they require at that time. Although delayed, the advancing U.S. soybean harvest is expected to weigh on prices. Two-week reversal The […] Read more
Drozd: Oat prices turning up, now that harvest lows are in place
There is a seasonal tendency for grain prices to come under pressure during harvest, as increased deliveries weigh on futures prices and basis levels deteriorate as merchants are offered more grain for sale than they require at that time. Stored grain is generally in tighter hands once harvest winds down and often requires an incentive […] Read more
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