For this forecast period, it looks like our weather pattern will undergo a shift back to the mild pattern we experienced at the beginning of the winter. It also looks like the warm weather will stick around for at least a couple of weeks. The million-dollar question is whether we will see another outbreak of cold arctic air, or will we see an early start to spring? Well, if I knew that answer to that, I would be rich, but I don’t think winter is over quite yet.
Prairie forecast: Warm weather returns
Issued Jan. 24, 2024, covering Jan. 24 to 31
Prairie forecast: More typical mid-winter weather
Issued Jan. 17, covering Jan. 17 to 24
For this forecast period it looks like it'll simply be winter--not bone chilling cold, but not springtime warm. The general pattern that appears to be developing across the prairies is showing warm air trying to push northeastwards out of the western U.S., but with a northwesterly flow across the prairies, it looks like there will be a parade of cold, arctic high-pressure systems dropping southeastwards every few of days. The question is, just how far north will the warm air push, or for far south will the arctic air push?
Prairie forecast: Frigid temperatures moving in
Issued Jan. 10, 2024, covering Jan 10 to 17
Coldest temperatures look to be over the western prairies but there looks to be some relief from the really cold temperatures early next week. With cold arctic high pressure dominating, little in the way of snow is expected during this forecast period.
Cold-cloud precipitation and super-cooled water
Water can struggle to freeze in the atmosphere and freeze instantly when it falls
Glacier FarmMedia – Preliminary numbers for October’s global temperatures are coming out and they don’t look good. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, October 2023 was the warmest October on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.3 C, which was 0.85 C […] Read more
Prairie forecast: Winter temperatures moving in
Issued Jan. 03, covering: Jan. 3 – 10
Looking at this forecast period, the best way I can describe it is that we will be seeing a slow slide into more seasonal temperatures. The persistent upper-level ridging that brought warm--and record warm temperatures--to much of the prairies in December has broken down. The weather models are showing a trough of low pressure developing over the west coast over the next seven days.
Prairie forecast: One more week of above average temperatures
Issued Dec. 27, covering Dec. 27 to Jan. 3
As we head into a new year, it's looking like this could be the last mild forecast period before a switch to a more typical winter weather pattern.
As usual, there is always a fair bit of uncertainty in forecasts beyond seven or so days, but we all knew that at some point we'd see some cold wintery weather move in.
Prairie forecast: Mild and dry weather right through to the New Year
Issued Dec. 20, covering Dec. 20 to Jan. 1
The holiday weather picture is starting to shape up, and if you're hoping for a perfect Christmas day with falling snow, I wouldn’t get my hopes up. If you are hoping for a continuation of mild winter weather, then it looks like you are in luck.
Prairie forecast: Mild and dry weather right up to the holidays
Issued Dec. 13, covering Dec. 13 to Dec. 25
Here is the big picture: there are two current storm tracks across North America. The first, which is well to our north, is the storm track that would normally be across our region. So far this winter, it has been displaced to our north – one of the reasons we have been dry. The second storm track is well to the south across the southern U.S. This places us under a rather slack flow as we oscillate between pushes of warm and cool air with each passage of low-pressure to our north.
Prairie forecast: Average to above average temperatures to continue
Issued Dec. 6, covering Dec. 6 to Dec. 13
With no big storm system impacting our region, the weather models have been doing a good job with the forecasts over the last few weeks. As we start to move closer and closer towards the middle of winter, the longer we can keep the warm air around, the shorter we can hope winter will be. With that said, here is what the big picture is looking like over the next seven or so days.
Prairie Forecast: Quiet, mild start to December
Issued Nov. 29, covering Nov. 29 to Dec. 6
The last forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models were predicting, with one small deviation: temperatures ended up being about 2 to 4 C warmer than forecasted. This will be something to keep in mind as we look at this week’s forecast. The forecast is looking rather quiet for this time of […] Read more
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