This forecast starts with an area of low pressure over northern Ontario and a resulting push of cool air over the eastern half of the Prairies. Over the western half of the Prairies, a weak ridge of high pressure is moving in. This will bring sunny skies and average or above average temperatures.
Prairie forecast: Mild pattern trying to hold on
Prairie forecast: No snow – yet
Forecast issued Oct. 16, covering Oct. 16 to 23, 2024
As we work our way towards winter, we'll eventually have to start talking about snow... but it looks like that type of weather is at least another week away. Instead, the models show unseasonably warm weather continuing across much of the Prairies over this forecast period.
Prairie forecast: Mild temperatures to continue
Forecast issued Oct. 9, covering Oct. 9 to 16, 2024
As this forecast period starts, the Prairies are feeling the effects of an upper ridge as it slowly slides eastwards and breaks down thanks due to low-pressure tracking over the ridge. Here is where things get interesting. Overall, the models have consistently shown an area of low-pressure tracking over the ridge late this week and over the weekend. This low is forecasted to drop southeastwards and deepen dramatically.
Prairie forecast: Widespread frost then turning warmer
Forecast issued Oct. 2, covering Oct. 2 to 9, 2024
A large, deep area of low pressure is spinning over eastern Hudson Bay. Weak high pressure stretches across the northern part of the U.S. and into the southern Prairies. The strong counterclockwise rotation around the Hudson Bay low is pushing plenty of cool air southwards across the Prairies. Most regions have a good chance of frost early in this forecast period.
Prairie forecast: Cooler, but still warmer than average
Forecast issued Sept. 25, covering Sept. 25 to Oct. 2, 2024
Despite a fairly unsettled pattern over the last forecast period, the weather models did a pretty good job of the forecast. For this forecast period, things should settle down a bit with a ridge of high pressure starting off our forecast. That doesn't mean that we won’t see any areas of low pressure, but unsurprisingly, the weather pattern is slowly shifting towards more of a fall pattern. That means quicker moving systems.
Prairie forecast: Weather pattern has undergone a shift
This forecast period starts with one of the northwestern U.S. lows slowly lifting northwards. The unsettled weather that started the week across parts of Saskatchewan and much of southern Manitoba looks to continue. It appears the low will only move out late Friday or early Saturday. Even parts of southern Alberta my see some rainfall from this low on Wednesday.
Prairie forecast: Cooler and wetter in the west, dry and warm in the east
Forecast issued Sept. 11, covering Sept. 11 to 18, 2024
Our weather pattern looks to be on the brink of a shift as a trough of low pressure begins to develop along the West Coast.
For those of you in Alberta, this will mean cooler and wetter conditions. In Manitoba, it looks like summer will continue for at least one more week. If you are in Saskatchewan, well, you will be stuck in the middle of these two features.
Prairie forecast: Summer weather not over yet
It looks like summer is not over yet. After a week of fairly unstable weather across much of the Prairies, it looks like we're moving into a period of stable warm weather to start September.
Radar and forecasts can only go so far during storm season
Radar and forecasts can only go so far during summer storm season, and we're not that great yet at predicting tornadoes.
Prairie forecast: Warm but unsettled weather
Forecast issued Aug. 21, covering Aug. 21 to 28, 2024
Last week's forecast got off to a rough start. The area of low pressure that pushed through the eastern Prairies ended up as a large upper level low. Because those are slow to move out, they can affect systems trying to move east by backing them up or forcing them to take a different path. So, while the overall pressure pattern across the Prairies was still slack as forecasted, the details got all messed up.
Cyber-Savvy Farmer
