“ENSO neutral” refers to periods in which neither El Nino nor La Nina is present, often coinciding with the transition between the two weather patterns, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

There is a 67 per cent chance the pattern will be seen in the June to August period, but “La Nina chances are around 50-55 per cent during the late fall and winter,” the CPC said.

The ENSO weather pattern is marked by average long-term ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall and atmospheric winds.

The La Nina pattern is characterized by unusually low temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is linked with floods and drought.

The centre predicted last month a transition from La Nina to neutral conditions, with an 80 per cent chance of the ENSO pattern during May-July 2021.

Anomalies known to occur in Canada during a La Nina event include colder-than-normal temperatures on the Prairies and above-average precipitation in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, according to Environment Canada.

— Reporting for Reuters by Sumita Layek in Bangalore. Includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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“That’s it! The ‘reference margin limit’ of the #AgriStability program is over! And it will be retroactive to 2020!” federal Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau wrote Thursday on Facebook following a virtual meeting between her and her provincial and territorial counterparts.

“That’s about $95 million more per year for [Canadian] farmers who will suffer significant losses for reasons beyond their control.”

On Twitter, Bibeau said she now has “support from all our prov(incial) + territorial colleagues” on the RML’s removal, and also thanked farmers and producer groups “who got behind our offer.”

Bibeau had gone public March 17 to encourage her provincial counterparts to commit either way on changes she proposed last November for the program — including not just the RML’s removal but a plan to increase the program’s compensation rate to 80 per cent, up from the current 70.

Bibeau had specifically aimed to get support from the Prairie provinces “to build a strong consensus” for her proposed changes, with pledges for further discussion later on longer-term changes to the program. The provinces foot 40 per cent of the bill for AgriStability and other federal/provincial business risk management (BRM) programs.

Making both changes in time for retroactive application to 2020 was expected to be a pricey proposition for the Prairie provinces in particular, increasing the total expected payout to Canadian farmers by up to 50 per cent, or $170 million per year.

On Twitter Thursday, Bibeau said the federal offer “remains on the table for cost-shared improvements to (the) comp(ensation) rate.”

Among the provincial ag ministers responding Thursday, Manitoba’s Blaine Pedersen tweeted that that the ministers’ meeting was “productive” and resulted in a “great day for Manitoba producers.”

Pedersen also noted the changes to AgriStability come with an extension on its enrolment deadline, to June 30, 2021, from April 30 previously.

“Discussions continue on increasing the payment rate but I’m happy we’re moving forward with this step to get additional support to farmers in need,” Ontario’s Ernie Hardeman said Thursday in a separate tweet.

‘Haggling’

Farm groups that had supported Bibeau’s proposals were less enthusiastic about the compromise in their statements Thursday.

“AgriStability, as a program responding solely to severe income losses, is there to help producers in crisis,” Canadian Federation of Agriculture president Mary Robinson said in a release.

“And now, at a time where Canadian agriculture faces immense disruptions and uncertainty, we see critical investments in risk management treated like a political game, with politicians haggling for over 100 days while farmers have real concerns about their livelihoods over the coming year.”

Since the RML was introduced on AgriStability in 2013, it has “unduly limited the support available to many producers and CFA is very pleased to see this inequity addressed,” the organization said. “However, an enhancement to the compensation rate would ensure all producers have access to increased support when they trigger payments.”

Bibeau’s overall proposal would have represented “the first new money to be put into the (BRM) suite since 2013, and has received support from a wide-range of farming organizations and stakeholder organizations across Canada,” the CFA said.

Given Thursday’s development, the CFA said it now calls on Ottawa to offer an increased compensation rate “to those provinces which have indicated their support for this aspect of the federal proposal.”

The Canadian Pork Council said Thursday it was “extremely disappointed that federal and provincial agriculture ministers could not reach consensus” on Bibeau’s proposal to boost the payment rate.

“We know AgriStability negotiations are not easy, but removing the reference margin limit does very little for pork producers,” CPC chair Rick Bergmann said in a separate release.

“While we are disappointed governments could not yet agree to the compensation rate, we are pleased with the changes that will stand to benefit beef producers across the country,” the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association said Thursday in a separate release. “Removing the RML will go a long way in making AgriStability more predictable and equitable for our industry.”

As for the payment rate, the association said it’s “pleased to see that the federal offer remains on the table.”

“The removal of the RML will help level the playing field for beef producers and better position our industry to contribute to Canada’s economic recovery,” CCA president Bob Lowe said.

Margins, triggers

In AgriStability, a farm’s reference margin is calculated based on an “olympic average” of the farm’s production margins for the previous five years, dropping the highest and lowest years.

A payment would be triggered when a farm’s production margin for a given program year fell more than 30 per cent below its reference margin, and would cover 70 per cent of that decline beyond the 30 per cent level.

The RML, however, meant that a farm’s reference margin could not exceed its average allowable expenses for the three years used to calculate it. If it did, program administrators would have applied the lower amount as the reference margin limit.

That said, the RML could not reduce a farm’s reference margin by more than 30 per cent — which, according to the previous program guide, “ensure(d) you have support for at least 70 per cent of your reference margin.”

With the RML in effect, using Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s example of a farm with a reference margin of $249,000 and an RML of $150,000 in a program year, the applied reference margin would still not be lower than $174,300 — 70 per cent of the $249,000 olympic-average reference margin.

A payment for that farm would thus be triggered if its production margin fell farther than 30 per cent below the reference margin. In other words, its payment trigger level would be $122,010.

If, for example, the production margin dropped that year to $80,000 — a decline of $42,010 below the trigger level — the farm would see an AgriStability benefit worth 70 per cent of that net decline, or $29,407. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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The La Nina pattern is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

A borderline moderate La Nina event is favoured during the peak November-January season, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

The weather phenomenon last emerged during September-November season in 2017 and lasted through early 2018.

Anomalies known to occur during La Nina include colder-than-normal temperatures on the Prairies and above-average precipitation in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, according to Environment Canada.

— Reporting by Harshith Aranya in Bangalore.

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There is about 50-55 per cent chance of La Nina developing during the Northern Hemisphere fall, with a 50 per cent chance it will continue through winter 2020-21, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

The La Nina pattern is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and linked with floods and drought. The weather phenomenon last emerged during the September-November season in 2017 and lasted through early 2018.

Meanwhile, the current El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are expected to continue through the summer of 2020, according to the CPC.

ENSO-neutral conditions refer to those periods in which neither El Nino nor La Nina are present, often coinciding with the transition between the two weather patterns.

Anomalies known to occur during La Nina include colder-than-normal temperatures on the Prairies and above-average precipitation in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, according to Environment Canada.

— Reporting for Reuters by Swati Verma in Bangalore; includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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“ENSO-neutral” refers to periods in which neither El Nino nor La Nina is present, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, the CPC said in its monthly forecast.

“During June, El Nino was reflected in the continued presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, SST anomalies across most of the eastern Pacific decreased during the month,” the weather forecaster added.

Last month, it had pegged the chances of the El Nino weather pattern continuing through the fall and winter a bit lower at 50-55 per cent.

The El Nino pattern brings a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific every few years and was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods before it went away in 2016.

Historically, milder-than-normal winters and springs are known to occur in Western, northwestern and central Canada during El Nino periods, according to Environment Canada.

Eastern and Atlantic Canada aren’t known to be “significantly” impacted by El Nino events, though such an event may reduce tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.

— Reporting for Reuters by Nallur Sethuraman and Eileen Soreng in Bangalore. Includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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“The official forecast favours the formation of a weak El Nino,” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in a monthly forecast.

The expectation of the weather pattern continuing through spring next year stood at 60 per cent, the CPC added.

Last month, the weather forecaster pegged the chances of the El Nino emerging at 80 per cent during the winter 2018-19 and 55-60 per cent during the spring next year.

The last El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years, occurred from around 2015 to 2016 and caused weather-related crop damage, fires and flash floods.

Historically, milder-than-normal winters and springs are known to occur in Western, northwestern and central Canada during El Nino periods, according to Environment Canada.

Eastern and Atlantic Canada aren’t known to be “significantly” impacted by El Nino events, though such an event may reduce tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.

— Reporting for Reuters by Harshith Aranya in Bangalore. Includes files from Glacier FarmMedia staff.

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The last El Nino, a pattern that brings a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific every few years, was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods before it went away in 2016.

“The forecaster consensus favours the onset of El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere fall, which would then continue through winter,” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in a monthly forecast.

Last month, the weather forecaster put the chances of El Nino emerging at 50 per cent during the fall and 65 per cent during the winter.

El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are likely to prevail through the Northern Hemisphere this summer, the report said.

Neutral refers to those periods in which neither El Nino nor La Nina is present.

Historically, milder-than-normal winters and springs are known to occur in Western, northwestern and central Canada during El Nino periods, according to Environment Canada.

Eastern and Atlantic Canada aren’t known to be “significantly” impacted by El Nino events, though such an event may reduce tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.

— Reporting for Reuters by Arpan Varghese in Bangalore. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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However, chances for El Nino remain elevated, between 35 and 50 per cent, relative to the long-term average into the fall, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in a monthly forecast.

The last El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years, went away in 2016 and was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods.

The CPC had projected nearly equal chances for neutral or El Nino conditions during the summer and fall in its previous advisory last month.

In Western, northwestern and central Canada, an El Nino event is most often associated with above-normal temperatures and drier conditions during winter and spring.

El Nino doesn’t significantly impact Eastern Canada or the Maritimes, but may reduce tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

La Nina, during the winter, is often linked to above-average precipitation in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and colder-than-normal temperatures on the Prairies, according to Environment Canada.

— Reporting for Reuters by Arpan Varghese in Bangalore. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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U.S. news network CNN reported on Tuesday that a memo drafted by President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team, which it obtained, said the new administration would immediately initiate changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico. Those changes could include measures on country-of-origin labelling (COOL), CNN reported.

The U.S. COOL program required as of 2009 that retail outlets label food according to its origin. Canada and Mexico argued that COOL, repealed in December, led to fewer of their cattle and pigs being slaughtered in the U.S.

“We’re watching… and if we think it discriminates against our cattle, our recommendation is going to be that tariffs go into place immediately” on U.S. products, said John Masswohl, director of government and international relations for the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association, which represents Canada’s 68,500 beef farms and feedlots.

The World Trade Organization last year authorized Canada to retaliate against the U.S. over COOL, setting the annual level at $1.055 billion.

Canada’s previous Conservative government listed in 2013 three dozen U.S. product categories that could be subject to a 100 per cent surtax, including pork, beef, cherries, appliance parts, chocolate, wine and office furniture, but none were imposed.

Alex Lawrence, spokesman for Canada’s Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland, would not say if Canada is inclined to retaliate, adding Ottawa looks forward “to working very closely with the new administration and with the United States Congress, including on trade and investment.”

Until it’s clear how Trump might approach COOL, no action is necessary, Masswohl said.

“I don’t go around chasing ghosts,” Masswohl said. “If anything starts to become real, we’ll know well in advance.”

The Canadian Pork Council, which represents the country’s hog farmers, is taking a wait-and-see approach until it knows what changes, if any, the next U.S. government will make, said executive director John Ross.

— Rod Nickel is a Reuters correspondent covering the agriculture and mining sectors from Winnipeg.

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The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, in a monthly forecast pegged the chance of La Nina developing this fall at 70 per cent, versus a likelihood of neutral conditions forecast last month.

The conditions are slightly favoured to persist into the winter, CPC said, pegging the chances at 55 per cent. The emergence of La Nina would follow a strong El Nino that has dissipated in recent months after wreaking havoc on global crops.

Typically less damaging than El Nino, La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and tends to occur unpredictably every two to seven years. Severe occurrences have been linked to floods and droughts.

Environment Canada has previously said La Nina, during the winter, is often linked to above-average precipitation in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and colder-than-normal temperatures on the Prairies.

— Reporting for Reuters by Chris Prentice. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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