“The further you buy out from spring, the prices tend to be a little bit lower. In making your commitments early, prices tend to edge up as you get closer to spring,” said Don Kitson of International Raw Materials Inc. in Fort Saskatchewan, Alta.

Why it matters: If farmers are aware of price forecasts they may be able to reduce input costs by buying at less-expensive times.

Kitson said no one knows for sure what fertilizer prices will be down the road given that they are priced off commodity markets, but prices will climb as winter recedes. He advised farmers to find a retailer they can rely on to tell them when it’s the right time to buy.

Over the last year, fertilizer prices have jumped by 20 to 25 per cent said Clare Kinlin, sales manager with MacEwen Agricentre Inc. in Maxville, Ont.

China is behind the change

“They used to export so much nitrogen on the world market and now they are an importer of nitrogen,” Kinlin said.

He also cited the soft Canadian dollar and consolidation in the fertilizer industry as other influences on future prices.

Kinlin said some fertilizer, especially solids, have gone up by as much as $100 per tonne, while liquids have seen price increases of up to $50 per tonne.

According to Kitson, China cut its urea production to reduce the environmental impact.

“That really affected the world supply balance,” he said. “A lot of it is tied to coal and (the Chinese) trying to improve their environment.”

Kitson noted China produces enough fertilizer to cover most of its own needs and for export, while importing from other countries.

“They are a major importer of potash fertilizers, so that’s always a big interest to Canadian companies. Canada is one of the largest exporters of potash in the world,” he said.

Regional issues can also affect future prices.

Kitson said if something happens along the United States Gulf of Mexico coast with fertilizers, it impacts prices in Western Canada, but it can take a month or more for the effects to show up.

“When you need that load of fertilizer, you need it. If you are planning to get it, you are more interested in what’s going on in the big picture,” he said.

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In a report released last December, the USDA raised its global soybean ending stocks forecast for 2018-19 to 115.33 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 112.08 million tonnes. That would also be well above the 101.30 million tonne carry-out seen in 2017-18.

Why it matters: Supply-demand fundamentals drive price and, ultimately, farmer planting decisions.

Included in the data was an upward revision to Brazil’s soybean production. The USDA now pegs Brazil’s soybean crop at a record 122.0 million tonnes. That would be up by 1.5 million tonnes from the November estimate and compares with the 120.3 million tonnes grown the previous year.

U.S. soybean ending stocks were left unchanged at 26.0 million tonnes (955 million bushels). That’s more than double the 11.9 million tonne U.S. soybean carry-out from 2017-18.

Projected world corn ending stocks were raised to 308.8 million tonnes, from 307.51 million in November. Production estimates for Brazil, Argentina and the U.S. were all left unchanged from the previous month.

World wheat ending stocks for 2018-19 are now forecast at 268.81 million tonnes by the USDA, which compares to an earlier estimate of 266.71 million. However, the carry-out still comes in well below the 279.94 million tonnes reported for 2017-18.

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The barometer, a project of Purdue University and the CME Group, fell 15 points in September to 114 from an August reading of 129.

The Ag Barometer is an index based on a survey of 400 American farmers.

In recent months, it has been unusually volatile.

In June the barometer registered 143, but then fell to 117 in July and recovered to 129 in August.

The September decline was based on falls in two sub-indices. The Index of Future Expectations was down 10 points and the Index of Current Conditions fell 25 points from the previous month.

Concerns about trade uncertainty, especially the United States trade war with China dominated concerns. As well, good growing conditions for this year’s crop and record yields have been building potential for oversupply problems, exacerbating concerns.

Futures prices for both corn and soybeans have faced significant declines since June.

Producers in the survey also said that their financial situations have deteriorated in 2018.

In the survey, 54 per cent of respondents said their farm finances were worse than a year ago, compared to 47 per cent in August and 36 per cent in May.

Looking ahead, 33 per cent of those who took part in the survey said they expected that the financial situations on their farms will be worse in a year from now. That compares to 24 per cent who said in August that they felt that way and 18 per cent in June.

Producers’ negative outlooks translated into fewer expectations that they would make larger investments in farm machinery or buildings. Just 20 per cent of respondents said now is a good time to make large farm investments, while 78 per cent said it was a bad time.

Purdue University is based in West Lafayette, Indiana.

The CME Group owns large derivatives and futures exchanges in Chicago and New York, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade.

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Researchers working together at several locations around the world have cloned rust-resistance genes: Yr7, Yr5 and YrSP.

Why it matters: It’s hoped these genes can next be used in wheat-breeding programs to help battle stripe or yellow rust. The disease’s ability to adapt to several environments and different climates have made control difficult.

“We’ve cloned the first major resistant genes against this fungal pathogen,” Peng Zhang, the study’s co-author and University of Sydney scientist, told the Chinese news agency Xinhau.

“Everywhere they grow wheat, this has been a problem because the pathogen is very adaptive and very aggressive,” Zhang said.

Eventually, the breakthrough could offer farmers alternatives to fungicides, as resistant wheat varieties become available. Rust can kill as much as 70 per cent of crops in affected areas, if left untreated. As well, some rust pathogens have developed resistance to existing fungicides.

Staff from the University of Sydney (Australia), the John Innes Centre (United Kingdom), Limagrain (U.K.), the National Institute of Agricultural Botany (U.K.), and CSIRO (Australia) worked together on the project.

Scientists in the U.K. and Australia were separately working to identify mutant genes that could potentially help with rust resistance. They started collaborating in 2017 after learning they were working on similar projects.

The findings were published Aug. 30 in Nature Plants.

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“But there are spots that got adequate moisture and there are still spots that are waiting on timely rains,” he said, from his farm near Grafton, N.D.

North Dakota is by far the largest bean-growing state in the U.S. with about 32 per cent of the crop. Michigan is second at 17 per cent and Nebraska grows the third most at 11 per cent.

“We’ve been extremely warm and it screws up our moisture a little bit faster,” he said.

During the last couple weeks, Kennelly said temperatures in his area have soared, reaching past 30 C some days, with high humidity.

“But it’s hard to say if it’s a bumper crop or a failure. A week or 10 days can make or break you. Right now, I think we’re fair.”

The United States Department of Agriculture reported in June that seeded acreage for edible beans for 2018 was 1.834 million acres. In North Dakota, farmers planted 550,000 acres. That compares to 2.092 million acres nationally and 705,000 North Dakota acres in 2017.

Kennelly said the reduced acres were expected given the difficult conditions last year, when drought parched crops in much of the state.

Even though growers still managed to harvest a decent crop in 2017 at 7.38 million hundredweight, that was down from 12.263 million cwt. the previous year.

“I think a lot of guys just tend to think we need more moisture than we do at times and I think that is what surprised us last year,” Kennelly said.

The dry weather limited disease pressure, such as white mould, he said. The decent crop was also a credit to the upright varieties now available and growers, who are more informed on making sure crops receive timely spray applications.

Kennelly attributed the reduced acreage this year to some growers who might have been turned off beans because of what he called the “games played at harvest time” with too much dockage being assessed to deliveries.

He acknowledged the dry year probably contributed to the dockage problem, but many growers shifted to wheat and soybeans where they don’t have to deal with those issues.

As well, he said some growers, depending on their situations and location, might find that pricing beans at 22 to 25 U.S. cents per pound on contract, is only break-even and many will turn to soybeans or wheat because they are simpler.

As 2018 progresses, he expects edible bean prices to pick up, depending on consumption patterns and how the current trade issues play out.

“I think that this might be the year when the contracts should be the bottom and I would think the prices should be up from that.”

No matter how the current trade issues between the U.S. and China and the U.S. and other countries work out, somebody will always be looking to source what they want, no matter the tariffs, he said.

“There’s only so many beans that are in the market and somehow or another, people find what they want.”

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