USDA predicts larger world grain/oilseed stocks

Global soybean, corn and wheat ending stocks for the 2018-19 marketing year were all larger than earlier expectations, according to the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In a report released last December, the USDA raised its global soybean ending stocks forecast for 2018-19 to 115.33 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 112.08 million tonnes. That would also be well above the 101.30 million tonne carry-out seen in 2017-18.

Why it matters: Supply-demand fundamentals drive price and, ultimately, farmer planting decisions.

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Included in the data was an upward revision to Brazil’s soybean production. The USDA now pegs Brazil’s soybean crop at a record 122.0 million tonnes. That would be up by 1.5 million tonnes from the November estimate and compares with the 120.3 million tonnes grown the previous year.

U.S. soybean ending stocks were left unchanged at 26.0 million tonnes (955 million bushels). That’s more than double the 11.9 million tonne U.S. soybean carry-out from 2017-18.

Projected world corn ending stocks were raised to 308.8 million tonnes, from 307.51 million in November. Production estimates for Brazil, Argentina and the U.S. were all left unchanged from the previous month.

World wheat ending stocks for 2018-19 are now forecast at 268.81 million tonnes by the USDA, which compares to an earlier estimate of 266.71 million. However, the carry-out still comes in well below the 279.94 million tonnes reported for 2017-18.

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