Ontario wheat prices reached 52-week highs as the market incorporates a risk premium due to the uncertainty in production. Statistics Canada said Ontario farmers plan to increase corn acres by 5.4 per cent this spring; soybean acres will be similar to last year.

The world is no longer comfortable with past stock levels of grains and oilseeds. The ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and China’s heightened frustration over Taiwan have major importers increasing stocks for food security.

Quick look:

Soybeans: Ending stocks have been at historic lows in Ontario.

Corn: Ethanol plant bids have hit three-year highs.

Wheat: Ontario winter wheat planting in 2025 was down versus the previous year.

Soybeans

Ontario farmers plan to seed 2.9 million acres of soybeans this spring, unchanged from last year, according to Statistics Canada. Using an average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre, production has the potential to come in at four million tonnes, up from the 2025 output of 3.6 million tonnes. The year-over-year increase in production comes on the heels of historically low ending stocks in Ontario.

Commercial stocks in Ontario are declining, and the market will function to encourage imports moving forward. Bids from the domestic crusher in Ontario need to be $0.50-0.75 per bushel to higher to attract supplies from south of the border. Domestic crush margins are at three-year highs, so there is breathing room for stronger cash bids.

On the world market, Brazil’s soybean harvest progress has moved past the halfway mark. Argentine farmers will begin harvest in the latter half of March and move into high gear during April. Brazilian soybean offers in export position are US$50 per tonne discount to U.S. origin.

U.S. farmers are expected to increase soybean acres by four to five per cent this spring, according to the USDA. That increase may have influenced Ontario farmers rotational plans.

Soybean futures reached 18-month highs during the first week of March. While the futures markets surged, basis levels deteriorated. This was largely fund buying. As of March 10, we estimated that the non-commercial position in the soybean futures was near 250,000 contracts, which is a historical high. When the speculative trade is this large, the market tends to decrease.

This week, we’re advising farmers to increase sales by 10 per cent, bringing total sales to 80 per cent for the 2025 production. We’ll save the final 20 per cent increment until the upcoming crop is more certain. When we see Canadian imports from south of the border increase, this will be the top in the Ontario soybean market.

Corn

Ontario farmers plan to plant 2.3 million acres of corn this spring, Statistics Canada estimated. This is up from 2.2 million in 2025. Using a traditional abandonment rate and an average yield of 174.2 bushels per acre, production has potential to reach 10 million tonnes, up from the 2025 crop of 9.5 million tonnes. The higher corn acres come at the expense of lower canola and spring wheat acres. Farmers are clearly responding to market signals.

Bids from ethanol processors are reaching three-year highs. Buying interest from feedlots and elevators sourcing for the export market have not increased to the same extent. To reiterate from our previous issue, Ontario corn ending stocks are expected to drop to historical lows at the end of the 2025-26 crop year. The market is functioning to ration demand by trading at a premium to the world market.

Canadian crop year-to-date corn exports for the week ending March 1 were 398,100 tonnes, down from last year’s number of 1.2 million tonnes. Northern European feed grain markets continue to be saturated with domestic wheat supplies.

Despite the rally in the corn futures market, export offers have only risen by US$2-4 per tonne. U.S. corn FOB the Gulf was quoted at US$225 per tonne while Brazilian corn was valued at US$226 per tonne FOB Paranagua.

The seeding of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is moving into the final stages. Total Brazilian corn production is expected to finish in the range of 130 million-132 million tonnes, down from the 2025 output of 136 million tonnes. Conditions are favourable in Brazil, but we’re still expecting drier conditions to develop due to ‘La Nina’. Argentine farmers have started harvesting their record corn crop, which is expected to reach 53 million tonnes, up from last year’s output of 50 million tonnes.

U.S. farmers are expected to seed 94 million acres of corn this spring, down from 98.8 million last year. Missouri, Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana are experiencing drier conditions heading into the spring seeding period. This is favourable for seeding, but timely rains will be needed or the corn market is moving significantly higher. The world cannot afford a problem with the U.S. corn crop.

This week, we’re advising farmers to increase sales by 10 per cent bringing total sales to 80 per cent for the 2025 production.

Wheat

Ontario farmers planted 1.12 million acres of winter wheat last fall, down 64,000 acres from the fall of 2024. We continue to project an Ontario winter wheat crop of 2.5 million tonnes, compared to last year’s output of 2.9 million tonnes.

Ontario farmers are only expected to plant 43,000 acres of spring wheat versus 62,800 acres last year. This is a modern-day historical low.

U.S. hard red winter wheat was offered at US$281 per tonne FOB the Gulf on Friday, while U.S. soft red winter was quoted at US$263 per tonne. French soft wheat was offered at US$245 per tonne FOB Rouen. Russian 12.5 per cent protein was quoted at US$250 per tonne FOB the Black Sea. Ontario soft red winter was quoted at US$265 per tonne FOB St Lawrence port.

Conditions in Russia have improved over the past month, and the crop will come out of dormancy in fair condition. We’re factoring in a minor year-over-year decrease in Russian and Ukrainian wheat production. The ongoing war will be a significant factor determining export potential.

In Europe, the winter wheat crop in the northern regions has come out of dormancy earlier than normal due to warmer temperatures. Conditions are drier in parts of Germany, Poland, Hungary and Czechia. European wheat production will be down from last year, but it’s hard to put a number on the crop size at this time.

The winter wheat crop in the U.S. southern Plains needs rain. There are major concerns in Oklahoma, Texas and southern regions of Kansas. If the seasonal April rains do not materialize, there is a serious problem with the hard red winter wheat.

This week, we’re advising farmers to sell 20 per cent bringing total wheat sales to 80-90 per cent. We need to be selling into this recent strength. The U.S. winter wheat crop will be down from last year, but once harvest begins the market will come under pressure.

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The planted area for U.S. corn in 2024 was determined to be 91.5 million acres, greater than the March USDA estimate of 90.04 million as well as the trade’s average guess of 90.35 million. However, the figure was nowhere close to last year’s acreage total of 94.64 million. After the release of the report, corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reacted bearishly with contracts losing more than 20 U.S. cents per bushel.

Soybean acres in the U.S. were slightly lower than the trade’s guess, coming out as 86.1 million. The figure was 653,000 less than the trade’s average guess and 410,000 less that the USDA’s March estimate. In 2023-24, 83.6 million acres of soybeans were planted in the U.S. Soybean prices were slightly bullish at the CBOT after the report’s release.

Total U.S. wheat acres declined from both the USDA’s March estimate and the trade’s average pre-report estimate. In total, 47.2 million acres of wheat were seeded, down 457,000 from the average trade guess and down 298,000 from the USDA’s March estimate. Last year, 49.58 million wheat acres were seeded.

Winter wheat plantings were 33.81 million acres, down from the USDA’s March estimate of 34.14 million, the trade’s average estimate of 34.2 million and last year’s total of 36.7 million.

U.S. spring wheat acres totaled 11.27 million for 2024, down from the trade’s average estimate and the USDA’s March estimate, both at 11.34 million. In 2023, farmers planted 11.2 million acres.

Durum wheat acres were counted at 2.17 million acres, well above the two-million acre average trade guess and the 2.03 million acres estimated by the USDA in March. Last year, 1.68 million acres of U.S. durum were planted. U.S. wheat futures acted bearish following the report’s release.

U.S. grain stocks as of June 1 were higher than expected for all three major crops. The country had 4.993 billion bushels of corn on hand, 120 million above the average pre-report trade estimate and 890 million more than the year before.

Soybean stocks were 970 million bushels, eight million above the pre-report trade average and up 174 million from last year’s total.

Wheat stocks totaled 702 million bushels, up 18 million from the trade’s average guess and up 132 million from one year earlier. For durum wheat, the U.S. had 21.08 million bushels of supply, down from 27.75 million on June 1, 2023.

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“Technically, it was getting into oversold territory,” said Tom Lilja of Progressive Ag in Fargo, North Dakota, on the corrective bounce in spring wheat futures. He added that the market had likely overreacted to the higher-than-expected spring wheat acres in the United States Department of Agriculture’s prospective plantings report released last week.

U.S. spring wheat seedings were forecast to hit 11.335 million acres in 2024, which would be up slightly from 11.200 million acres the previous year. Durum area was forecast to rise by 21 per cent, at 2.028 million acres. However, winter wheat area was down by seven per cent.

“The good news in the report was that all wheat acres, including winter wheat, were down by 2.1 million (acres) from last year,” said Lilja.

May spring wheat hit a three-year low for a front-month contract of US$6.2525 per bushel in overnight trade before uncovering support to settle 14 cents off that low on April 3.

Chicago and Kansas City winter wheat contracts are still holding well above their lows from late-November, which Lilja said was somewhat supportive for the Minneapolis futures. However, that may not mean higher prices, but rather a narrowing of the spread between spring wheat and the winter wheats.

The acreage report was supportive for corn futures, with tighter quarterly stocks also underpinning that market. As a result, Lilja expected corn would trend sideways to higher over the spring planting season.

For soybeans, ideas that Chinese imports may not live up to earlier expectations were overhanging the market. However, Lilja noted that the likelihood of increased volatility through spring planting could lead to choppiness in the futures.

—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg

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“Yields are the big driver of this whole thing,” stated MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett.

The initial projections from the USDA were based on economic models, past data, weather patterns, and essentially the department’s best estimate. The USDA is scheduled to issue its farmer survey-based projections for 2024/25 at the end of March.

For soybeans, the USDA forecast the national yield to reach 52 bushels per acre in 2024/25, up from the current year’s 50.6. Planted acres were set to rise to 87.5 million compared to 83.6 million in 2023/24, with harvested acres rising to 86.6 million from 82.4 million. That would boost production to 4.505 billion bushels from 4.165 billion.

Total domestic use for U.S. soybeans was projected to bump up to 2.525 billion bushels in 2024/25 from this year’s 2.424 billion. Exports as well are to improve to 1.875 billion bushels from 1.720 billion. That’s to see ending stocks jump to 435 million bushels from 315 million in 2023/24.

As for U.S. corn, the USDA forecast yields to rise to 181 bu./ac. in 2024/25 from 177.3. Planted acres were dropped to 91.0 million from this year’s 94.6 million. Harvest acres fell to 83.1 million from 86.5 million. With that reduced area, production was forecast to slip to 15.040 billion bushels from 2023/24’s 15.342 billion.

At 12.555 billion bushels, total domestic use was nudged up from this year’s 12.455 billion. Exports were little changed with 2.150 billion bushels in 2024/25 from 2.100 billion. This is projected to push up ending stocks to 2.532 billion bushels from 2.172 billion.

U.S. wheat was set to see reduced planted acres in 2024/25 at 47.0 million versus 49.6 million. However, harvested acres are expected to increase to 38.4 million from 37.3 million. Yields were set at 49.5 bu./ac. compared to this year’s 48.6.

There’s to be a slight decrease in wheat’s total domestic use at 1.134 million bushels, from the 1.144 billion in 2023/24. Exports for the coming year were pegged at 775 million bushels versus 725 million. The carryout is to grow to 769 million bushels from 658 million.

“That’s pretty big yields in terms of corn and beans,” commented Burnett, noting the overall effect of the Outlook Forum’s report was bearish.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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Wheat and barley production for 2023/24 was significantly lower than the very large crops of the previous marketing year. For wheat, the attaché estimated Australian output for this year at 25.5 million tonnes, down from the record 40.55 million in 2022/23 which was fueled by ample rainfall. Barley came in at 10.50 million tonnes having dropped from the near record harvest of 14.14 million.

When wheat and barley are compared to their 10-year averages, of 26.5 million tonnes and 11.2 million respectively, their 2023/24 harvests were favourable, the attaché stated.

There was a small decline in harvested wheat area, the attaché noted, with 12.5 million hectares in 2023/24 compared to the 13.05 million the year before. Yields fell by more than a tonne per hectare, from 3.11 last year to only 2.04.

With a smaller wheat harvest came reduced exports, the Canberra desk reported 31.82 million tonnes in 2022/23 versus 19 million this year. Total consumption remained at eight million tonnes and ending stocks dropped from 4.37 million tonnes to 3.07 million.

The attaché noted harvested area for barley bumped up to 4.20 million hectares from the 4.13 million sown in 2022/23 but yields fell back from 3.43 t/ha. to 2.5 in 2023/24.

Marketing year exports were down as well, from 7.77 million tonnes to six million in 2023/24, but total consumption remained at six million tonnes. That saw ending stocks shrink from 3.22 million tonnes in 2022/23 to 1.72 million.

China continued figure prominently when it came to wheat and barely exports from Australia, with the attaché noting the latter has often faced stiff competition from Canada.

Of Australia’s total wheat exports, the percentage heading to China has risen from nine to 24 per cent over the last three years.

Barley witnessed a turnaround in exports, as China lifted its three-year-old ban on the Australian crop. Outbound shipments to China resumed in August 2023, with a surge in exports during September and October. In that short timeframe, China became Australia’s number three barley customer.

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AAFC included its first estimates for the 2024/25 marketing year in its January supply/demand report, released Jan. 22.

All wheat area was forecast to dip by 1.9 per cent, at 26.50 million acres, as a 2.9 per cent decline in non-durum wheat should more than counter an expected 1.4 per cent increase in durum to 6.12 million acres.

Barley area was forecast to slip by 4.8 per cent on the year, at 6.97 million acres, while area seeded to oats was projected to see the largest change on the year – rising by 27.1 per cent to 3.21 million acres.

AAFC called for a 1.5 per cent decline in canola area, at 21.75 million acres, with flaxseed dropping by 19.0 per cent to 494,000 acres. Meanwhile, soybeans should hold steady at 5.64 million acres.

The major pulse crops were all expected to see increased area this spring, with both peas and lentils forecast to rise by 5.4 per cent at 3.21 million and 3.95 million acres respectively. Chickpea area was forecast at 371,000 acres, which would be up by 7.7 per cent on the year.

Statistics Canada releases its first official seeded area estimates for the upcoming growing season on March 11.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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Corn eased after USDA released a flood of data Friday, some of it delayed by the recent government shutdown, showing plentiful supplies and lighter U.S. domestic demand, and large upcoming harvests in South America.

Wheat was mostly higher, supported by USDA’s estimate of the lowest U.S. winter wheat acreage in more than a century and improving U.S. export prospects.

Given the lack of major surprises in the USDA data, grain markets struggled to break out of recent trading ranges. Traders remained cautious amid uncertainty over a U.S. trade deal with China and moderating crop weather in Brazil and Argentina.

“We’re right to be back to watching progress on trade talks and South American weather,” said Terry Reilly, senior commodities analyst with Futures International.

Thursday’s news that U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are unlikely to meet before a March 1 negotiating deadline, when U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are set to rise, dampened hopes of a breakthrough in trade talks.

The two sides will hold talks in Beijing next week, with deputy-level meetings to start on Monday and high-level talks to follow, a White House spokeswoman said on Friday.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soybeans ended 1-1/4 cents higher at $9.14-1/2 a bushel, but were down 0.2 per cent in the week (all figures US$). It was the market’s second straight weekly drop.

March corn was 2-1/4 cents lower at $3.74-1/4 a bushel. The 1.1 per cent weekly decline was the market’s third straight weekly loss.

CBOT March wheat was up four cents at $5.17-1/4 a bushel but 1.3 per cent lower in the week after a steep decline in the prior session.

USDA projected U.S. winter wheat acres at the lowest in 110 years following years of expanding global production.

Wheat futures also drew some support from improving export demand after top importer Egypt bought two cargoes of U.S. soft red winter wheat in a snap tender.

— Karl Plume reports on agriculture and ag commodities for Reuters from Chicago; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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“It was a disadvantage with the winter and with the weather conditions this summer it’s been pretty dry… so between the two, it’s kind of reduced yields,” said Doug Martin, chairman of Winter Cereals Manitoba.

Martin has heard reports of yields varying between 40 and 70 bushels per acre, depending on the area. Manitoba Agriculture’s weekly crop report, released Monday, said winter wheat yields were at 30 to 80 bushels per acre, though in the southwest corner of the province yields were reported as average.

The year wasn’t the best for winter wheat. Last fall, dry conditions led to fewer acres being sown. According to Statistics Canada, 1.396 million acres of winter wheat were seeded. The subsequent winter saw little snow, with no coverage for fields in some parts of the province. Spring saw a lot of freezing and then thawing temperatures which weren’t good for winter wheat development.

“It was patchy… most of Manitoba, eastern Manitoba, has been pretty dry. So there wasn’t a lot of moisture to (help the crop),” Martin said.

While yields might not be the best, the market should be good for selling the winter wheat crop, as wheat prices have been on the rise lately. Drought conditions in Europe and Australia are leading to production concerns globally.

Most winter wheat usually ends up on the feed market, according to Martin. With dry conditions, feed grain prices are also on the rise.

According to a feed grain buyer in Alberta, there will be feed barley shortages this year, meaning feedlots will need alternatives for livestock feed.

“I’m assuming that the feed market will be fairly robust this year with the heat and dry conditions… they will be reduced yields, especially barley will be greatly affected by that,” Martin said.

Martin is optimistic that there will be more acres of winter wheat sown this fall — but only if conditions are right.

“Hopefully crops come off early and farmers will think about seeding some winter wheat this year. I think they will be lots of time before the deadlines to seed winter wheat this year. And hopefully some rain comes.”

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Spring wheat production in the country, not including durum, is forecast at 614 million bushels, up 48 per cent from 2017. Of that, 584 million bushels, or 95 per cent of production, is expected to come in hard red spring wheat.

Spring wheat harvested area is expected to increase to 12.9 million acres, unchanged from June’s acreage report, but that’s still 27 per cent higher than last year.

NASS estimates this year’s spring wheat yield to come in at a record high at 47.6 bushels per acre, an increase of 6.6 bu./ac. from last year.

Durum production is estimated to reach 74.9 million bu. this year, a 36 per cent increase from 2017. The forecast predicts yields at 40.7 bu./ac., up 15 from last year. Total harvested acreage for durum is estimated at 1.84 million acres, 14 per cent less than 2017, but unchanged from the June estimates.

Meanwhile, U.S. winter wheat production is expected to remain relatively stable at 1.19 billion bu., down six per cent from last year and one per cent from the June forecast. The report estimates yield at 48 bu./ac. down 2.2 bu. from last year’s average yield of 50.2.

NASS estimates total winter wheat acres to be harvested this year at 24.8 million acres, down two per cent from last year’s.

Hard red winter wheat production is estimated at 657 million bu., soft red winter wheat at 303 million bu. and white winter wheat at 232 million bu.

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Canola plantings reached 22.7 million acres, shy of last year’s 23 million, but exceeding the average trade guess of 22.4 million acres. In spring, Statscan estimated that farmers intended to plant 21.4 million.

Farmers tend to lowball their planting intentions in the spring, and a trade war between the U.S. and China affecting U.S. soybean exports may also be in the back of growers’ minders, said Dave Reimann, market analyst at Cargill.

Some suspect that China could import more canola and crush it for meal in pig feed as a substitute for soymeal, which would support canola prices.

ICE Futures Canada November canola futures turned slightly negative after the report, sliding 90 cents, to $509.50 per tonne.

Statscan pegged all-wheat area at 24.7 million acres, up from last year’s 22.4 million and in line with the average trade expectation of 24.8 million acres. They had expected in the spring to sow 25.3 million acres.

“Nothing too shocking,” Reimann said, adding that a small reduction in wheat plantings from the spring estimate is unlikely to boost prices, given ample global stockpiles.

Canada is one of the world’s largest wheat exporters and the biggest shipper of canola, a cousin of rapeseed used largely to produce vegetable oil.

— Reporting for Reuters by Rod Nickel in St. Paul, Minn. and Dale Smith in Ottawa.

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