With further price spikes and potential scarcity ahead, might it be time to try reducing costs and input requirements with variable rate application?

It might be – although a true reduction in required fertilizer volumes though a variable rate approach is unlikely.

WHY IT MATTERS: Refining how we use fertilizer supports crop quality and uniformity.

Variable-rate fertilizer application is an approach intended to match fertility treatments with the specific needs in different parts of a field, so knowing fertility levels in those different parts of the field is critical, says Chris Snip, an independent agronomist from Essex County.

Grid or zone soil sampling are both viable options, as are soil scanning technologies like SoilOptix and SWAT Maps. Indeed, Snip says “they all have their place.”

His experience suggests 2.5-acre grid sampling is an accessible and effective method for most of his clients, although SoilOptix can be valuable in fields with highly variable soils. He also points to cost-share programs, such as those offered through Ontario’s conservation Authorities, as valuable initiatives in reducing the cost of soil sampling and analysis work.

While urea is one of the products most impacted by current trade disruptions, it’s not necessarily one that can be effectively managed through variable rate application.

“I don’t have a lot of confidence with what’s out there today. I still think there’s a lot of stuff we don’t know about nitrogen and a lot of that variable rate stuff is how do we dial that it,” says Snip. Instead, he believes phosphorus and potassium are the primary nutrients to look at.

“Then you have to deal with someone to analyze the data and make it useful information. I like sitting down and having a conversation with the farmer about what makes sense. Down here in Essex, we tend to have a lot of legacy phosphorus – where an old farmyard used to be or areas that used to have vegetable production – that’s where you really get a benefit in changing the rate.”

Locally, Snip adds research from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Harrow points to an optimal range of 20 to 30 ppm for phosphorus. Beyond 30, and the amount of dissolved reactive phosphorus leaving the soil goes up significantly.

“Our approach is to build, maintain and drawdown. I always refer to nutrients in the soil as a bank account. We’re either putting money into that account or taking it out,” he says.

Equipment needs

If you’ve soil sampled, engaged an agronomist to analyze the data, and made a plan – then can your equipment do anything with it?

Variable-rate prescriptions require tractors and application equipment that can change rates to match a prescription. Ian McDonald, crop innovations specialist with the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness, says the capability of modern equipment to vary rates on-the-go is “quite amazing” today, but tends to be very large.

“Big equipment may not be able to vary across the toolbar, or the reaction time may not be what you want,” he says, adding “you have to have variation in the landscape to take advantage of variable rate.

“Variation isn’t always about changing soil type or elevation in terms of difference in crop response to fertility level.”

Managing smaller, more refined areas might remain a challenge, although Y-drop systems for repeated in-season applications have changed the equation for urea and UAN over the last decade. Looking ahead, McDonald anticipates advances in robotics will unlock the ability to apply nutrients in smaller quantities and on a smaller scale throughout the growing seas – something which could help alleviate nutrient tie-up in soil.

Snip adds the right equipment can open up new avenues of precision – fertilizer banding and strip till applications, for example. If a grower doesn’t have the necessarily capability themselves, custom applicators probably do. Neighbours might also be willing to lend a hand.

“Most people play nice together in the sandbox,” says Snip.

Misconceptions

The hard truth of variable rate, however, is growers should not expect to use significantly less fertilizer overall. The practice of redistributing more fertility to areas where it’s needed, and reducing fertility where it’s not, tends to balance out.

“We really saw an increase in more consistent yields from that variable rate…It’s not necessarily saving money, but putting it to better use,” Snip says. “It’s more about the right place when it comes to variable rate fertilizer.”

McDonald adds a variable rate approach can even increase the total amount of fertilizer applied, although that fertilizer is more strategically placed. Regarding nitrogen, he says another misconception is the economic range of nitrogen is narrow. In reality, the most economic range for nitrogen is around 25 pounds, with weather and moisture playing a key role in nitrogen availability.

“There’s an idea that if input rates are set to predicted yield potential of 200 bushels. But if everything lines up it could be 220 bushels. So you put on extra, a little insurance nitrogen,” McDonald says. That extra nitrogen, however, is not where an actual yield boost may come from.

“I don’t think that pays off … Your insurance was already built into the system through nitrogen mineralization.”

If a grower does want to experiment with different fertilizer rates, they have to know whether the experimental rate is actually responsible for the end result. McDonald continues encouraging growers to try their own on-farm rate trials with a zero-control check to identify actual fertilizer impact. Even small block checks, he says, can provide the necessary data to confidently “play with your rates.”

He adds data management remains an ongoing challenge, requiring growers to engage advisors to clean and interpret data before drawing impact conclusions. It can still be a worthwhile process, though.

“Farmers should find what they do best, and find the right people to optimize their system,” McDonald says.

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Financial pain can bring technologies and practices that were peripheral for many into sharp focus.

The rapid rise in fertilizer costs has been marked and could be the difference between profit and loss for some farmers this summer.

I’m curious to see if it will drive changes on farms.

Farmers don’t want to skimp on nitrogen as it is a major driver of yields, so they will err on the side of applying more than less.

A significant amount of money has been spent on fertilizer innovation, particularly in the area of nitrogen, over the past decade. Most of those solutions have a place, but aren’t mainstream.

This edition (April 7) features a couple of stories that address nitrogen options and a program to support the transition to split application. See them on pages 14 and 15.

The easiest way to manage fertilizer is to soil test. I’ve heard recent stats that less than 40 per cent of farmers soil test. You can’t manage what you can’t measure.

Variable-rate fertilizer is a technology that isn’t new, but it’s likely to gain more usage this year, as farmers think carefully about how better to manage the expensive input. This is a technology that won’t likely save you a lot in fertilizer costs, but it could help bump yield to pay for it.

Encapsulated fertilizer is another option to improve nitrogen use efficiency. Coating urea keeps it in place longer, hopefully so it’s there when the corn plant roots need it. The value is that the nitrogen is released slower and therefore doesn’t leach away and more of it is used by the crop.

Another practice that’s received mixed reviews is the split application of nitrogen. Instead of applying a full season of nutrients at planting, with a spreader and/or planter, 30 to 50 per cent might be applied at planting, then multiple other applications can be made, such as a sidedress at the V4 to V6 stage of corn. Wheat can also be sidedressed. Other farmers leave some of the nutrients to be added, if needed, up until pre-tassel, using high clearance sprayers with tubes that drop the nutrients at the soil level.

This practice is valuable for saving nitrogen, as the corn is usually tissue tested to ensure that the extra fertilizer is actually needed. Some years it will be, and there won’t be savings, but some years there will be.

There are programs to help with experimentation with nitrogen usage.

Farmers for Climate Solutions is administering an interesting program that helps guarantee a profit if you take the risk of using a second nitrogen application.

With today’s urea price, it’s likely worth the risk of a second N application, later in the season, but a program like this can make experimentation worthwhile.

How are you managing the high cost of nitrogen this year? Are you standing pat, or trying something new?

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Some 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas also transits the Strait, and its near closure, combined with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, have forced regional energy facilities to halt output.

That has, in turn, shut fertilizer plants in the Gulf and beyond, just as farmers across the Northern Hemisphere prepare for spring planting, leaving little margin for delays.

The global market for urea was already struggling with tight supplies prior to the current conflict, with Europe forced to cut output due to the loss of cheap Russian gas and China restricting fertilizer exports, including urea, in order to ensure domestic supplies.

Which fertilizer plants have halted or cut output?

Qatar Energy has halted output at the world’s largest urea plant after shutting down gas output following attacks on its LNG facilities.

In India, a massive global urea market, three urea plants have cut output as LNG supplies from Qatar have plummeted.

India, home to nearly a fifth of the world’s population, buys more than 40 per cent of its urea and phosphatic fertilizers from the Middle East, and recently agreed to buy 1.3 million tons of urea, some of which might not arrive on time.

Bangladesh has shut four of its five fertilizer factories, while Australia’s Wesfarmers has warned of possible shipment delays, including for urea.

Egypt, which supplies eight per cent of globally traded urea, could struggle to produce nitrogen fertilizer after Israel declared force majeure on gas exports to the country, Scotiabank and Rabobank analysts say.

Brazil is almost 100 per cent reliant on urea imports — nearly half of which transits the Strait of Hormuz.

In the U.S., farmers are reporting sold out retailers, with the country about 25 per cent short of fertilizer supplies for this time of year.

Globally, urea exports are set to fall to about 1.5 million metric tons in March, compared to 3.5 million without China’s supplies, or 4.5 to 5 million with China, according to Scotiabank.

How has the conflict affected prices?

Urea export prices in the Middle East have jumped about 40 per cent to just above $700 per metric ton (C$958) on March 13 from just under $500 (C$685) before the war, according to Argus.

In the U.S., fertilizer prices have surged as much as 32 per cent since the conflict began.

Analysts say prices for nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea could roughly double if the war drags on.

Given the Middle East’s dominant market share, no producer can quickly make up for the lost supply, according to Chris Lawson, analyst at CRU.

Russia, the world’s largest fertilizer exporter, is facing supply disruptions due to Ukraine drone strikes, while China, despite ample capacity, is restricting exports, he said.

— Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz, Sybille de La Hamaide and Dewi Kurniawati

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“Farmers just aren’t 100 per cent clear on how this is totally going to affect them,” said Jeff Harrison, chair of the Grain Farmers of Ontario (GFO). “And I think that is what is the most frustrating part.”

Ontario and Eastern Canada have already seen increasing fertilizer prices due to a tariff on Russian imports. The recent trade disruptions with Iran threaten to make that situation worse.

Why it matters: The Iran conflict could see prices and supply of fertilizer already harmed by Russia tariff affected further.

“We’re being told fertilizer prices have gone up significantly,” Harrison said. “But in some cases, I’m hearing from farmers that they can’t even get … a clear answer on what fertilizer will cost them.”

He said in Ontario some farmers are being told available supply may soon be more expensive than usual.

“I’m a little bit skeptical about some of those statements, because it’s almost like ‘we’ll be able to get it, but you’re gonna have to pay a lot for it,’” he said.

“The biggest message is there’s no clarity.”

Fertilizer prices have been high since the government first put duties on Russian fertilizers after the outbreak of the war with Ukraine, which Harrison argued have not made the intended impact on the Russian economy.

A report from Farm Credit Canada (FCC) said, the tariff on Russian fertilizer imports are costing Canadian farmers around $100 per tonne compared to their United States counterparts.

The FCC report also found farmers in Eastern Canada are the most vulnerable to these specific trade shocks.

Harrison acknowledged Western Canada is not immune to high fertilizer prices largely due to transportation costs and market factors but said Eastern Canada is more reliant on fertilizer imports.

“I’ve heard it said before that it’s cheaper to move fertilizer, potash, out the Port of Vancouver on a Panamax vessel and around the Panama Canal and service the European Union … than to bring potash across our country by rail into Ontario,” Harrison said.

“If we’re going to be expected to sell our grain in a global marketplace, then we have to be able to source our inputs in a global marketplace.”

Harrison said one of the biggest frustrations around the cost is the lack of meaningful acknowledgement from governments on the impacts on farmers.

“This past weekend Brooke Rollins, the (U.S.) Secretary of Agriculture, recognized the impacts that fertilizer prices are having, and (the U.S. Treasury Department) have gone on record this past weekend that they will seek to have more fertilizer exports out of Venezuela.”

“We can’t even get our government to acknowledge the pain that this is inflicting on our industry.”

Harrison said the topic is delicate, especially as some could see the removal of the tariff as rewarding Russia and being anti-Ukraine, which he said could not be farther from the truth.

“Farmers are compassionate people,” he said. “We care about the people that we farm with. We care about all humanity, and no one wants to see those atrocities that happen in Ukraine. No one condones that.”

When the tariff is not achieving its intended goal and is penalizing farmers though, Harrison said it must stop. He said it has been a struggle to get politicians and decision-makers to understand the negative impact of the tariff.

Now, the blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, which sees around one third of global fertilizer trade pass through it according to the United Nations Trade and Development, threatens to disrupt access markets and further complicate matters.

“How does this impact the Ontario farmer? Really, it’s the unknown,” Harrison said. “There’s going to be farmers that have all their fertilizer sourced. There’s going to be farmers that have none.”

“Farmers operate on a level of faith,” he added. “It’s very difficult to change your rotation. It’s not even always sensible. You have to make hard decisions.”

GFO has prepared a letter to the Prime Minister’s Office requesting it lift the tariffs on fertilizer at the federal level. Harrison called it as a sensitive statement and reaffirmed farmers’ compassion toward Ukraine and the ongoing conflict.

“We recognize that it is sensitive and that there could be backlash from people that don’t understand the impacts of these tariffs and don’t understand the fact that this tariff is not achieving its intention,” Harrison said. “These people don’t comprehend the punishment it is having on our farmers.”

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That would be in addition to the planted area recently projected by Statistics Canada, as nitrogen-based fertilizers have seen price hikes of 30 per cent since the start of the current Middle East war. Vessels transiting the narrow Strait of Hormuz to and from the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf have come to a stop, which threatens global supplies.

On Feb. 27, nearby urea futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were nearly US$442 per tonne and then jumped to US$590 by March 3. Since then, urea has fluctuated with crude oil prices, closing on March 9 at US$585/tonne.

Pulses add nitrogen

Risula said in a March 10 interview that switching to pulses would make sense due to the nitrogen benefits they provide.

“But it may not be as much as one might think because there are other aspects that could influence farmers’ decisions,” he added.

He said farmers’ crop rotations would be a major consideration as well as concerns over root rot, which has been a problem for pulse crops in Saskatchewan.

Of the choices for additional pulse acres, Risula said the most likely would be lentils. Another selection he said farmers would consider is chickpeas.

“They’re growing it away from the area it was intended for, which was the drier part of southwest Saskatchewan,” he said, noting there are more chickpea varieties available.

StatCan recently forecast a 13.3 per cent increase of planted chickpea acres in Saskatchewan for 2026/27 at 559,100.

Phosphorus issues

As for lentils and peas, Risula cautioned these pulses require good phosphorus levels, which is currently a problem in the province.

“Generally, our soils have been running down in phosphorus levels,” which he said are cyclical.

That would also mean farmers would have to consider the costs to applying phosphorus where levels are lower than normal and its availability. While urea process have risen significantly, those for phosphorous are up only five per cent.

StatCan planted and forecast pulse acres in Saskatchewan

Pulse 2025/26 2026/27

Lentils 3,808,600 3,643,900

Dry Peas 1,773,000 1,479,300

Chickpeas 493,400 559,100

Faba Beans 15,300 29,800

Dry Beans 8,600 n/a

– With files from Sean Pratt, Glacier FarmMedia

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Urea barges in New Orleans traded roughly US$50-$80 per short ton, or 11 to 17 per cent higher, on March 2 compared to Feb. 28, according to Argus Media.

The conflict presents a “major risk” to North American urea supplies ahead of spring planting, according to an analysis published on the Argus website.

A vessel loading on Monday in the Middle East would arrive in the United States by mid-April. March and April are the largest months for urea imports.

“If shipments from the Middle East are delayed or disrupted, the U.S. would lose a critical source of urea, likely crunching supply and laying the groundwork for upward price volatility,” Argus analyst Calder Jett said in his article.

“Middle Eastern producers of urea so far have suspended offers and are grappling with shipping complications in the Strait of Hormuz.”

WHY IT MATTERS: This is the time of year when farmers are contemplating spring fertilizer purchases.

StoneX fertilizer analyst Josh Linville said the conflict couldn’t come at a worse time for North American farmers, who are gearing up for spring.

Commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has started to “grind to a halt.” Vessel owners do not want to put their ships and crews in harm’s way.

The market impact will depend on how long the strait is shut down, he said in a YouTube video on the subject.

U.S. president Donald Trump has stated that U.S. military operations in Iran are likely to last at least one month.

“The unfortunate part is that means you have locked in three of your top 10 global urea exporters and three of your top 10 global anhydrous exporters,” said Linville.

Saudi Arabia is also a major exporter of phosphate fertilizer.

The phosphate market was already suffering from the lack of Chinese exports. The world’s largest exporter of the product said it will not be shipping any product until August 2026.

The urea market has also had problems with supply keeping up to rising demand due to a lack of Chinese exports and the European Union functioning at about 75 per cent of its normal operating rate.

“We have gotten to the point where we don’t have any excess supplies anymore,” said Linville.

Iran and Saudi Arabia don’t have any alternatives to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

“For those manufacturers that rely on the Persian Gulf to get out to the rest of the world, if you shut down that narrow body of water, you’re stuck,” he said.

Dennis Voznesenski, agricultural economist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, reports that three freight vessels from the U.S. and United Kingdom have already been struck in the Strait of Hormuz.

He noted in a post on X that one-third of global urea trade passes through the strait, according to Kpler.

The hostilities will also disrupt natural gas shipments through the strait, which could lead to higher fertilizer production costs.

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“There has a been a spike in the market down at the Gulf, so that eventually translates to maybe higher prices here. We’ll see how long it sticks around.” Burnett said.

“I don’t think it sticks around that long.”

Hurricane Milton is expected to hit Florida’s west coast late Oct. 9, according to a U.S. National Weather Service bulletin. Central and southwestern Florida, including Tampa, are expecting “life threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rains.”

This, after Hurricane Helene hit the state in late September.

Gulf urea prices have risen by seven or eight per cent this month and peaked on Oct. 4, said Burnett.

Global urea prices rose in recent days, which some have blamed on conflict between Iran and Israel, Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, told the AgriTalk podcast on Monday.

However, urea inventories were already tight based on “production hiccups” around the world, he said.

“Iran attacking Israel was not the thing that caused it. It was just the trigger that allowed the market to come together and say we now need to move higher because the supply issue is very, very real,” Linville said.

Linville was more concerned about phosphate.

Florida has several phosphate mines in the path of the hurricane. As much as 42 per cent of U.S. ammonium phosphate, 32 per cent of U.S. phosphate rock, and half of U.S. wet-processed phosphoric acid production capacity is located near Tampa Bay. About 40 per cent of all U.S. phosphate fertilizer exports and 27 per cent of total fertilizer exports go through Port Tampa Bay.

Fertilizer maker Mosaic said today it has idled Florida operations. The company, which mines phosphate rock in the state and produces about three-quarters of North America’s phosphate fertilizers, said last week that a facility in Riverview, Florida, was offline because of a storm surge from Helene.

On X, Linville said he was less concerned about phosphate facility damage than he was about electrical infrastructure damage and about workers who might need to care for friends and family before returning to work.

The Gulf region also has many port loading facilities for phosphate, Burnett said. If those are damaged, that could cause shipping delays of the raw material from the mines.

However, he pointed out that Canadian farmers are likely in no hurry to purchase phosphate at this time of year.

“So really the price of mono and diammonium phosphate are irrelevant right now, unless you’re buying for the spring,” he said.

However, farmers are likely frustrated with the price of fertilizer in general, Burnett said. Crop prices have dropped 20 to 30 per cent over the last year while fertilizer prices have remained fairly level.

“I would say that farmers are looking at next year’s cropping rotation, relatively expensive fertilizer compared to the price of the crops that they’re growing and will probably look to minimize nitrogen or try to move to more pulse crops,” Burnett said.

“I think we’re going to see that in a number of areas, not just fertilizer,” he added.

—With files from Reuters

—Updated: added additional information about Florida phosphate production, facility closures.

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“The world has realized that food can be a weapon and it is being currently used,” Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, one of the world’s largest suppliers of plant nutrients, told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

He said the direct impact of Russian sanctions has removed at least 15 per cent of global fertilizer supply and the indirect impact was even more severe due to disruptions of supply chains and the impact of gas price rises.

“We need to work on an emergency response for the most vulnerable. For that we urgently need to unlock funds of the world food programme (WFP), which has a $10 billion funding gap,” he said (all figures US$).

David Beasley, the executive director of the United Nations’ World Food Programme, said this month even before the war in Ukraine some 276 million people were hungry globally.

WFP is believed to face a $10 billion fund shortage as food prices, fuel and shipping costs are skyrocketing while donors such as oil-rich Gulf countries are not contributing agreed funds.

Some 25 million tonnes of corn and grains are stuck in Black Sea ports because of the war in Ukraine and Russian grains and fertilizers exports are also disrupted by sanctions.

“Currently, we have an extreme combination of events when food supplies are going down, fertilizers supplies are doing down, gas supplies are going down and prices for gas and fertilizers are rising,” said Holsether.

Global fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas and the EU receives 40 per cent of its gas from Russia.

In March, Yara curtailed its ammonia and urea output due to the surge in gas prices but has fully restored production since.

“We need to build a system that is less reliant on Russia and is more green including by using renewable energy for fertilizer production,” Holsether said.

The UN classifies over half a million people in Ethiopia, southern Madagascar, South Sudan and Yemen in the most severe phase of acute food insecurity.

Africa generally features among the most severely hit regions. Yara has donated 18,000 tonnes of fertilizers to Ghana and agreed another 40,000 tonnes of delivery, expecting that with the donated part the average price will come down.

— Reporting for Reuters by Dmitry Zhdannikov.

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The company cut back ammonia production at a number of sites in Europe from September through November following a jump in the price of the natural gas used in the manufacturing process, hitting its overall output in the region by 30 per cent.

Fertilizer prices have risen sharply this year, tracking higher energy costs, putting key crops at risk and adding to global food security and inflation fears, analysts say.

“The price of finished nitrogen fertilizer has risen in the quarter to a level where it has been profitable for us to start up production and, in addition, the global ammonia price has also risen,” a Yara spokesperson said.

The company said in a statement that while it aimed to keep supplying customers, it couldn’t rule out cutting back ammonia production again if necessary.

Rivals including CF Industries have also cut production.

Including maintenance and unscheduled outages, Yara’s European ammonia production was approximately 370,000 tonnes below capacity during the curtailments.

“The impact on finished fertilizer production has been limited, as unprofitable ammonia production has been replaced with sourcing from Yara plants outside Europe, and from Yara’s global ammonia trade and shipping network,” the company said.

CEO Svein Tore Holsether told Reuters last month that some capacity at Yara’s Dutch plants had already been brought back on stream.

European wholesale gas prices have surged as much as 700 per cent this year as demand recovered rapidly from a pandemic slump at a time of low storage levels and supply constraints.

As of Tuesday, the European benchmark was 570 per cent higher than at the start of 2021.

As a result of supply constraints, farmers in Europe have scrambled to buy urea and liquid nitrogen at elevated prices for fear of running short in the planting season.

Yara has the capacity to produce 8.5 million tonnes of ammonia per year worldwide, with 4.9 million tonnes of that coming from Europe.

Ammonia is an ingredient in finished products used to fertilize crops but also goes into explosives and for cleaning exhaust from diesel engines, among other applications.

— Reporting for Reuters by Victoria Klesty and Nora Buli; additional reporting by Terje Solsvik.

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The Texas Arctic Blast in February and Hurricane Ida in August disrupted U.S. fertilizer production. Then, prices of natural gas, a key input in producing nitrogen, soared in Europe due to high demand and low supplies.

Global urea prices this month topped $1,000 per tonne for the first time, according to BMO Capital Markets (all figures US$). Russia and China have curbed exports.

In the United States, nitrogen fertilizer supplies are adequate for applications before winter, said Daren Coppock, CEO at U.S.-based Agricultural Retailers Association. Applying fertilizer before winter reduces farmers’ spring workload.

But with prices so high, some farmers are delaying purchases, risking a scramble for supplies during their busiest time of year, Coppock said.

Global nitrogen fertilizer sales were worth $53 billion in 2020, and prices are at least 80 per cent higher so far this year, according to Argus Media.

Normally, MKC, a Kansas farm co-operative, sells fertilizer to farmers for payment up front with delivery months down the road, giving growers certainty about a key expense.

With prices soaring, MKC has scaled back its pre-paid sales out of caution.

“You just don’t know what the price is going to be. It has put a lot of retailers in a tough spot,” said Troy Walker, MKC’s director of retail fertilizer.

Delaying fertilizer purchases until spring runs the risk of further supply chain congestion as farmers rush to apply fertilizer and plant seed during a tight window.

“There’s going to be a lot of people who wait and see,” Coppock said. “(But) if everybody’s scrambling in the spring to get enough, somebody’s corn isn’t going to get covered.”

Wisconsin farmer Jim Zimmerman decided to bite the bullet and secure all his fertilizer for spring, this year.

“It’s next year’s prices I’m worried about,” Zimmerman said. “It could get worse.”

Nutrien, the largest U.S. farm supplier, has secured less nitrogen fertilizer than usual for spring delivery because manufacturers are making less available, said Jeff Tarsi, the company’s senior vice-president of retail. Sales to farmers are likely to occur closer to spring than usual, he said.

The one nitrogen product that is running short in North America is urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), said Kreg Ruhl, crop nutrients manager at Illinois-based farm co-operative Growmark. UAN is a liquid form that is convenient for farmers to apply.

The U.S. International Trade Commission is conducting an anti-dumping investigation into UAN from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago, at the request of U.S. producer CF Industries.

Importers are reluctant to book shipments into 2022, because they may have to pay retroactive duties if CF wins its case, Ruhl said.

Farmers could reduce their fertilizer needs by planting more soybeans and less corn, but there is little evidence many plan to do so.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast U.S. corn plantings would decline to 92 million acres in 2022, from 93.3 million in 2021.

Waiting until spring to buy fertilizer could disappoint some farmers, said Matt Conacher, senior fertilizer manager at Federated Co-operatives Limited, a Canadian wholesale seller.

“My advice is, if you can get your fertilizer now, do so.”

— Reporting for Reuters by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg; additional reporting by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago.

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