As for the Canadian soybean crush, StatCan has not published any new data since it released its report for the July crush in August 2025. The agency said any numbers have been “suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act.”

The post February canola crush up from 2025, StatCan reports appeared first on Farmtario.

Corn: Tight stocks should mean good Ontario demand over the summer.

Soybeans: Export and domestic demand running the same as 2024-25, despite lower stocks.

Wheat: About 40 per cent of U.S. winter wheat is under drought conditions.

Ontario on-farm corn, soybeans and wheat stocks will drop to historically low levels at the end of the 2025-26 crop year. There is no cushion in Ontario if there is a crop problem.

The grain and oilseed markets are incorporating a risk premium due to the uncertainty in production. Ontario has received below-normal precipitation over the past 30 days. On March 5, Statistics Canada will release its first acreage estimate for 2026.

Canada, the U.S. and most of the developed world appear to be heading into a major inflationary period over the next couple of years. On a macro level, this is bullish for grain and oilseed markets. The world is no longer comfortable with past levels of ending stocks. Food security will be more of an issue given fresh trade alliances and deglobalization. If there are one or two problem areas in the Northern Hemisphere during the 2026 growing season, we are in for significantly higher prices. Fertilizer prices are back up to historical highs. Keep all this in mind as you read the following analysis.

Soybeans

Ontario farmers harvested 3.5 million tonnes of soybeans in 2025, down from the 2024 output of 4.3 million tonnes. Canadian crop year-to-date soybean exports for the week ending Feb. 15 were 3.5 million tonnes, up 100,000 tonnes from last year. Crop year-to-date domestic disappearance for the week, at 928,400 tonnes, was down 100,000 tonnes from the year-ago usage. Despite the year-over-year decrease in production, export and domestic demand is running at similar levels to last year. The Ontario domestic market needs to trade high enough to curb exports and to attract imports in the latter part of the crop year.

Finally, the Ontario soybean market needs to strengthen to encourage farmers to increase acreage this spring. At this stage, Ontario soybean prices need to move $1/bu. higher to pull acres away from corn.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant 85 million acres of soybeans this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This is up from the 2025 planted area of 81.2 million. U.S. production has the potential to reach 121 million tonnes, up from last year’s crop of 116 million tonnes. Despite the increase in production, the carryout for 2026-27 will finish near 9.7 million tonnes, relatively unchanged from 2025-26 campaign due to an increase on domestic and export demand. There are some drier pockets developing in the U.S. Midwest and northern Plains moving into the spring period. The market will be extremely sensitive to yield and crop development.

U.S. soybeans continue to trade at a premium to South American origin as the Brazilian harvest moves into the final stages. The Argentine soybean crop will be harvested during March and April.

We’ve advised farmers to be 70 per cent sold on their 2025 soybean production. We continue to have a bullish outlook for the soybean market.

Corn

Ontario corn prices have been percolating higher. Certain ethanol processors are well covered for their nearby requirements but there appears to be significant open demand for May through August. We have a bullish outlook for the energy complex which will directly spill over into the corn market. Ethanol processors will have a hard time sourcing adequate supplies late in the crop year, given the tighter stocks situation. On a side note, feedlot operators also need to have full coverage through September. Higher fertilizer prices may hinder corn acreage this spring. New-crop prices will function to encourage production moving forward.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant 94 million acres of corn this spring, down from the 2025 area of 98.8 million, according to USDA. Using a trend yield, U.S. production has potential to finish near 400 million tonnes, down from the 2025 crop of 432 million tonnes. Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri and Illinois are contending with drier conditions heading into spring.

Brazil’s second corn crop was about 50 per cent planted at the end of February. Conditions have been favourable for early crop development. Traders are concerned about drier conditions during April due to La Niña. The Argentine corn harvest will move into high gear during March. We’re expecting the corn market to develop a significant risk premium in late March and April.

Europe is the main destination for Ontario corn exports in a normal year. Currently, the Ontario corn market is premium to U.S. and French offers keeping Ontario corn at bay. Ontario corn prices will need to maintain a premium over the world market.

This week, we’re advising farmers to sell 20 per cent of their 2025 production bringing total sales to 70 per cent. Ingredion Cardinal Corn bids were hovering at $7 for May delivery. The market is showing a carrying charge which tells farmers to sell now for delivery in May or June.

Wheat

The Ontario winter wheat crop for the 2026 harvest is expected to come in at 2.5 million tonnes, down from the 2025 crop of 2.9 million tonnes. This lower production estimate comes on the heels of a historically tight carryout. Flour millers appear to have open demand for May through July. Currently, Ontario export offers are premium to French values f.o.b. Rouen and U.S. prices f.o.b. the Gulf.

Approximately 40 per cent of the U.S. winter wheat region is contending with some level of drought. The U.S. hard red winter crop in Texas, Oklahoma and parts of Kansas will need timely rains during March and April to sustain yield potential.

In Russia and Ukraine, the ongoing war has also resulted in a cash market risk premium. The latest weapons developments in Ukraine have enhanced the ability to strike Russian grain and energy infrastructure. These Ukrainian-manufactured weapons are not under Western restrictions. Secondly, there are pockets in the Russian Southern District, Volga District and North Caucasus District that have received below-normal precipitation over the past couple of months.

In Germany and Poland, the winter wheat lacked snow cover during a recent cold snap. There is potential for larger than normal winterkill. These regions have also received below-normal precipitation. Romania is also on the drier side while conditions in France have improved.

Analysts are factoring in a year-over-year decrease in production in the U.S., Russia, Europe and Canada. This week, we’re advising farmers to sell 20 per cent of their 2025 production, bringing sales to 60-70 per cent for milling and feed wheat.

The post Low Ontario on-farm stocks could shape spring and summer markets appeared first on Farmtario.

Marlene Boersch of Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc. in Winnipeg said large carryouts and lower prices over the past year will likely mean fewer pulse acres this spring.

“Like for all commodities, prices are down quite a bit. So your return-per-acre calculation will change very significantly,” Boersch said. “On top of that, for both lentils and peas, you will have some very significant carryout.”

Seeded lentil acres were estimated at 4.138 million tonnes, down 5.5 per cent from last year. The total would be the least amount of acres in three years and the second-least since 2020. One reason for the decline would be the 2025-26 carryout of 1.695 million tonnes, more than three times larger than the previous year’s.

Dry pea acres were also set to be lower, dropping by 12.3 per cent at 3.078 million acres. The figure was also the lowest in three years and the second-lowest since 2012. Dry pea plantings will decline in all three Prairie provinces, most notably Saskatchewan where it will lose 16.6 per cent for a total of 1.479 million. The 2025-26 carryout for dry peas was 1.31 million tonnes, nearly triple from the previous year.

The amount of edible bean acres is projected to decline by 30.7 per cent at 295,000 acres, the smallest total since 2015 and one year after the biggest edible bean crop since 2020. Manitoba’s seeded area was estimated at 120,000 tonnes this year, down 44.7 per cent from 2025.

StatCan estimated faba beans acres this spring to total 55,900, 18.8 per cent lower than in 2025 and the fewest acres since 2016. It would also mark the fourth straight time faba bean acres in Canada declined year-by-year.

Chickpeas were the only pulse to buck the trend. Canadians are expected to use 6.3 per cent more land than last year to grow the crop at 575,000 acres. It would be the fifth straight yearly increase for chickpeas and its largest seeded area since 2001. This is despite 2026 ending stocks for chickpeas having more than quadrupled from the year before at 275,000 tonnes.

The planting survey was conducted from mid-December to mid-January. However, rising fertilizer prices tied to the escalating conflict in the Middle East could shift planting intentions, said Glacier FarmMedia analyst Bruce Burnett. He said the relatively lower input costs for pulse crops compared to other options could lead to more area going to peas and lentils this spring than earlier expectations.

The post Pulse Weekly: StatCan projects fewer pea and lentil acres appeared first on Farmtario.

Farmers are expected to stick with the 18.8 million spring wheat acres and boost their barley acres from the projection based on a December-January survey, as they respond to a spike in fertilizer prices due to the Iran war, an ongoing rally in canola prices, and a search for “safe” crops to grow in a geopolitically fraught world, they said.

Canada is the world’s top producer and exporter of canola seed and a top-five wheat exporter.

“I think we’re going to see some upward adjustment to the canola acres,” said analyst Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital. “When this survey was done, canola prices were below the cost of production.”

In some areas like Alberta, many farmers can now make a small profit on canola at today’s forward prices, so farmers are likely to grow more, he said. An increase of 400,000-500,000 acres is likely.

“I’m sure they’re going to lean further in to the oilseeds if they have any opportunity at all,” said Lawrence Klusa of Seges Markets, noting the runup in global vegetable oil crop prices.

Canola prices rise after uncertain winter

Futures prices for 2026-grown Canadian canola are up by more than $80 per metric ton since mid-December, a bigger gain than most competing crops have experienced.

Farmers might also boost their acres of pulse crops like peas if the present surge in fertilizer prices continues, Klusa said. Pulse crops are able to produce much of their own nitrogen requirements, allowing farmers to grow them at a relatively low cost.

Canadian farmers have faced a host of issues this winter. China’s market was blocked to canola and peas by prohibitive tariffs that were reduced only in the past two weeks. Trade tensions with the U.S. and unclear U.S. biofuels policies made that major market for canola oil appear uncertain. The war in the Persian Gulf has suddenly made fertilizer costs and supplies look worrying.

Klassen said farmers are likely to stick with their spring wheat acres and boost their barley acres from what they told StatCan because of these risks and due to the likelihood of financial losses this year.

“Those are kind of safety crops and a good choice with the price of urea going through the roof and so much instability,” said Klassen.

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

The post Farmers expected to boost canola area beyond Statistics Canada intentions report appeared first on Farmtario.

The survey was conducted from mid-December to mid-January, marking the earliest time planting intentions data was collected by the agency. Subsequent surveys will provide data on actual planted area, with revisions possible for the next two years.

Wheat

Total Canadian wheat area is expected to be down by 1.1 per cent from 2025, at 26.7 million acres. Much of the decline was tied to a 6.7 per cent drop in winter wheat seeded in the fall, with spring wheat relatively steady on the year.

Canola

Canola area is forecast to increase by 1.0 per cent on the year at 21.8 million acres. The survey was conducted before China announced it was lifting tariffs on Canadian canola, causing prices to rise, and analysts generally expect actual canola area will top 22 million acres.

Soybeans

Soybean planting intentions came in at 5.9 million acres, which would be up by 2.9 per cent from 2025. Ontario remains the top growing area for soybeans, with acreage expected to increase by 0.2 per cent to 2.9 million acres.

Meanwhile, Manitoba farmers intend to plant 12.9 per cent more soybeans in 2026, with area forecast at 1.9 million acres.

Barley and oats

Barley area is expected to increase by 5.0 per cent on the year, at 6.4 million acres. That was in line with trade expectations.

Oats area is forecast at 2.9 million acres, which would be down by 3.1 per cent from 2025.

Corn

Canadian farmers expect to plant 3.8 million acres of corn for grain in 2026, up 1.7 per cent from one year earlier. Ontario is forecast to see the largest increase in corn area, at 5.4 per cent. If realized, that would see Ontario farmers plant a record 2.3 million acres of corn.

Pulses

Most pulse crops are forecast to see lower planted area in 2026, with lentil planting intentions down 5.5 per cent at 4.1 million acres; peas down 12.3 per cent at 3.1 million acres; and edible beans down 30.7 per cent at 295,000 acres.

Of the major Canadian pulse crops, only chickpeas are expected to see an increase on the year with planted area estimated at 575,000 acres, which would be up by 6.3 per cent.

The post Canadian farmers intend to plant more canola, less wheat in 2026 appeared first on Farmtario.

Canadian farmers and ranchers held 11.1 million cattle and calves on Jan. 1, up 2.5 per cent from one year before. Inventories rose across all categories of cattle. Beef heifers for breeding were up 4.8 per cent and beef cows were up 1.9 per cent.

Producers held 3.6 million calves, 4.3 per cent more than a year prior. This was mainly due to a 42.7 per cent increase in international imports of calves between July and December.

In the last six months of the year, slaughter of cattle and calves fell by 6.5 per cent to 1.6 million head, StatCan said. International exports dropped by 8.9 per cent to 361,300 head. Despite decreases, feeder and slaughter cattle prices climbed to record highs over the latter half of 2025 on global demand.

Hog inventories down

Canadian hog farmers reported 13.9 million hogs on farms as of Jan. 1, down 0.8 per cent from one year prior. They reported 1.2 million sows and gilts — up 0.4 per cent. The number of boars was unchanged at 15,300 head.

The pig crop for the second half of 2025 rose by three per cent year-over-year to 15.2 million. StatCan attributed this to an increase in demand from processors and international trade.

International exports of live hogs were up eight per cent year over year at 3.5 million head. Hog slaughter rose by 1.8 per cent to 10.9 million head.

Sheep and lamb inventory up

Canadian sheep and lamb inventories rose by three per cent year over year to 833,000 head.

The sheep breeding herd was up 2.2 per cent as inventories of ewes and replacement lambs both increased. Ram numbers were stable.

Sheep and lamb slaughter fell by 2.9 per cent year over year between July and December. Average producer prices for slaughter lambs fell well below those in the previous six months.

Between July and December, international exports of live sheep and lambs rose by 19.5 per cent to 4,900 head.

The post Canadian cattle herd sees first annual increase since 2018 appeared first on Farmtario.

Wheat

• Total Canadian wheat stocks as of Dec. 31 of 27.5 million tonnes were up by 5.9 per cent from the same point the previous year, and well above the five-year average of 23.6 million tonnes.

• On-farm stocks at 24.1 million tonnes were up 7.2 per cent on the year, while commercial stocks were down 2.7 per cent at 3.4 million tonnes.

• Of the total, durum stocks were up by 18.5 per cent on the year at 5.3 million tonnes.

Canola

• Canola stocks as of Dec. 31, 2025, were up 18.8 per cent on the year at 15.6 million tonnes. On-farm stocks were up 21.2 per cent at 14.3 million tonnes, while commercial stocks dipped by 7.4 per cent at 1.3 million tonnes.

• StatCan linked the larger canola supplies to increased production and a sharp drop 36.1 per cent drop in exports due to Chinese tariffs.

Barley

• Barley stocks were up 16.7 per cent on the year at 5.7 million tonnes. That compares with the five-year average of 4.8 million tonnes.

Pulses

• Lentil stocks of just under three million tonnes were roughly double what was on hand at the same point the previous year.

• Pea stocks were 77.5 per cent higher on the year, at 3.0 million tonnes.

Corn/soybeans

• Corn stocks were down 3.3 per cent from the same point a year ago, at 10.9 million tonnes.

• Soybeans stocks were 26.6 per cent lower on the year at 3.2 million tonnes.

The post Large Prairie crops lead to increased December stocks appeared first on Farmtario.

Average income for families operating a single farm in Canada grew by 0.9 per cent to $216,021 in 2023 compared to 2021. However, this was driven by higher off-farm income — namely through investment and pension revenue.

Average net operating income fell by 0.6 per cent.

Farm family income is published every two years, StatCan said.

Highlights of the report include:

• Families operating potato farms saw the largest increase at 25.5 per cent growth since 2021. Poultry and egg farmers came in second with 8.6 per cent growth.
• Families operating pig farms saw the largest decline in income — a 21.9 per cent decline between 2021 and 2023. Greenhouse, nursery and floriculture farm families saw a 17.2 per cent decline in average income.
• Average off-farm income increased by 2.2 per cent to $116,788. Off-farm income accounted for 54.1 per cent of total farm income in 2023.
• Prairie farm families earned the highest average total income in Canada, led by Saskatchewan at $264,991 in 2023, Manitoba ($247,707) and Alberta ($242,130)

Farm average net operating income jumped in 2023 by 17 per cent over 2022, according to Agriculture Agri-Food Canada data. The net operating income tracks producers’ revenue minus cash expenses at the farm level. High livestock receipts, driven by strong cattle markets, bolstered the total. Crop prices were also strong for most of the year.

Conditions were less favourable for hog farmers.

The post Farm family income gains driven by off-farm earnings: StatCan appeared first on Farmtario.

China with the first blow

China dealt a serious blow to Canada’s yellow pea exports in March, as Beijing slapped 100 per cent tariffs on its imports of the pulse crop from Canada, as well as canola oil and meal. The move was a retaliatory measure against Ottawa’s earlier action to impose 100 per cent duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles and 25 per cent on steel and aluminum that went into effect in October 2024.

Pulse Canada said about 500,000 tonnes of Canadian yellow peas in total were exported to China in 2024, with average annual exports of around 1.50 million.

Data from the Canadian Grain Commission showed China’s pea imports from licensed facilities in 2025/26 are a mere 70,400 tonnes. That represents less than eight per cent of the nearly 892,000 tonnes Canada has shipped out so far this year. In 2024/25, China already took in 263,000 tonnes, which were more than 26 per cent of Canada’s pea exports.

India with the second blow

Then throughout much of 2025, India has played something of a cat and mouse game with a series of extensions to its duty exemptions on yellow pea imports. A lack of domestic supply and rising prices led the Indian government to suspend its duties, but not without some bumps along the way.

Back in March, there was a great deal of uncertainty as to what New Delhi was up to as it had missed its own deadline to announce another extension or impose tariffs. Almost two weeks late, New Delhi said it extended the duty-free period to the end of May.

Things seemed to be just fine with India until the proverbial wheels came off the bus at the end of October. Rumblings within the market proved to be true when New Delhi slapped 30 per cent tariffs on all of is yellow pea imports, even though it said earlier the duty-free period would last until March 2026.

Declining prices led India’s pulse growers to push for the duties to be reinstated, and a lot earlier than what the government planned.

Prices & production

Currently, yellow pea prices across Western Canada are C$6.50 to C$7.38 per bushel delivered as of Dec. 19, Prairie Ag Hotwire reported. During 2025, the yellows topped off at a high of C$11.40 and they were C$5.94 at their lowest point.

As for production, Statistics Canada placed the 2025/26 total dry pea harvest at 3.93 million tonnes, up from slightly below three million the previous year.

In Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s December supply and demand report, it raised the dry pea carryover to 1.57 million tonnes from 1.20 million in November and 489,000 in 2024/25.

The post Pulse Weekly: Tariffs guide yellow peas in 2025 appeared first on Farmtario.

“A really good flax crop this year. Acres were up and the quality on an overall basis was definitely better than what we have seen in at least five years, maybe 10,” Shiels added.

He said there’s a possibility of more flax being planted come spring.

Why it matters: flax can be a suitable alternative to canola

Statistics Canada reported earlier in December that Prairie farmers brought in an estimated 454,460 tonnes. That’s up from nearly 258,000 tonnes combined last year and well above the five-year average of about 383,700 tonnes. Virtually all of Canada’s flax is produced on the Prairies.

“It’s been a good year, a little bit of a resurgence for flax,” Shiels said, noting the increase in flax largely came at canola’s expense.

Good prices

While Canadian flax production pales in comparison to the record 21.80 million tonnes of canola harvested in 2025, Shiels said there are a few factors favouring flax going into 2026.

One of those is pricing. Shiels said flax continues to maintain its premium over canola of C$2 to C$3 per bushel, despite the flax pulling back from around C$20/bu. for brown flax to about C$17.

“(Flax) is down a couple of bucks off of the highs that we saw at harvest time and in the late summer,” Shiels said.

Good pricing also fueled the increase in flax production this year, as farmers were able to lock in for C$19/bu. versus C$14 to C$15 for canola, he continued.

Shiels said the demand for flax is strong, particularly when it comes to the bakery and health food markets. Also, the United States hasn’t imposed a tariff on its imports of Canadian flax.

“Flax isn’t for everybody,” Shiels warned. “It’s a little tougher to market and it’s a lot tougher to grow.”

Looking ahead

However, he wasn’t sure if flax prices would improve between now and when spring planting begins in 2026.

“If canola prices stay where they are, we could see another bump up in flax acres,” Shiels said, adding that it depends on flax’s premium over canola. “If that remains when the new crop pricing comes out, we will see (an increase).”

Although canola’s outlook is currently bleak, as the market grapples with this year’s record harvest grapples versus poor exports, Shiels suggested any increase in canola prices could push up flax prices “just to try to stay competitive.”

Shiels said he welcomes more increases in flax production as the North American market doesn’t produce enough and relies on imports.

“We’d love to see flax acres back on the Prairies,” he said. “We would like to buy local.”

Flax production 2024/25 2025/26

Planted hectares 203,800 250,900

Harvested hectares 204,100 249,100

Production (tonnes) 257,974 454,461

Yields (tonnes per hectare) 1.28 1.82

Source: Statistics Canada

The post ‘A little bit of a resurgence for flax’ appeared first on Farmtario.