A team of international researchers reported that some of the world’s most important freshwater sources — from the Caspian Sea between Europe and Asia to South America’s Lake Titicaca — lost water at a cumulative rate of around 22 gigatonnes per year for nearly three decades. That’s about 17 times the volume of Lake Mead, the United States’ largest reservoir.

Fangfang Yao, a surface hydrologist at the University of Virginia who led the study published in the journal Science, said 56 per cent of the decline in natural lakes was driven by climate warming and human consumption, with warming “the larger share of that.”

Climate scientists generally think that the world’s arid areas will become drier under climate change, and wet areas will get wetter, but the study found significant water loss even in humid regions. “This should not be overlooked,” Yao said.

Scientists assessed almost 2,000 large lakes using satellite measurements combined with climate and hydrological models.

They found that unsustainable human use, changes in rainfall and runoff, sedimentation, and rising temperatures have driven lake levels down globally, with 53 per cent of lakes showing a decline from 1992 to 2020.

Nearly two billion people who live in a drying lake basin are directly affected and many regions have faced shortages in recent years.

Scientists and campaigners have long said it is necessary to prevent global warming beyond 1.5 C to avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change. The world is currently warming at a rate of around 1.1 C.

Thursday’s study found unsustainable human use dried up lakes, such as the Aral Sea in Central Asia and the Dead Sea in the Middle East, while lakes in Afghanistan, Egypt and Mongolia were hit by rising temperatures, which can increase water loss to the atmosphere.

Lakes in Canada’s Arctic were part of the drying trend, the study found, “partially because of changes in temperature and PET (potential evapotranspiration), which is in line with broader climate changes toward increasing evaporative loss due to higher lake temperatures and reduced lake ice extents.”

Water levels rose in a quarter of the lakes, often as a result of dam construction in remote areas such as the Inner Tibetan Plateau.

Declines seen in naturally occurring lakes were in part offset, the study found, by “precipitation- and runoff-driven LWS (lake water storage) gains” in others such as the Great Lakes and Lake Winnipeg.

In all, the study said, between 1984 and 2015, satellites have observed a loss of 90,000 square km of permanent water area — an area equivalent to the surface of Lake Superior — whereas 184,000 square km of new water bodies, mainly reservoirs, were formed elsewhere.

Trends and drivers of global lake water storage have remained “poorly known,” the study added, which “impedes sustainable management of surface water resources, both now and in the future.””

— Gloria Dickie is a Reuters climate and environment correspondent in London. Includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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Conditions have deteriorated in some areas, however, and the majority of Western Canada was still in some kind of drought state.

A north-south divide of precipitation saw central and northern areas of the Prairies receive above-normal moisture while southern regions of the Prairie provinces saw lower than normal precipitation.

Drought conditions generally improved in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but the area of extreme drought grew slightly in southern Alberta, according to the report.

Extreme drought regions were still found in central Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba, but the coverage area was significantly reduced.

While the precipitation that did fall will not fully help the ground recover from long-term moisture deficits, “it has allowed for slight improvement across the region,” AAFC said.

The Prairie region was classified as 61 per cent abnormally dry or in moderate to exceptional drought as of Jan. 31, 2022. That accounts for 95 per cent of the agricultural area in the region. That was down from 67 per cent and 98 per cent respectively the previous month.

Saskatchewan’s Water Security Agency on Tuesday separately released a preliminary spring runoff outlook for 2022. Given average precipitation between now and spring melt, the report calls for “below-normal snowmelt runoff potential” for most of southern Saskatchewan and “above-normal snowmelt response” in central areas.

The spring melt rate is expected to have “significant” impact on runoff yields across the province’s south, the agency said. A slow melt would likely see the bulk of the snowpack go to recharge the soil column, while a rapid melt would improve surface water supplies — but “the current snowpack is not sufficient to satisfy both.”

Without more snowfall in southwestern Saskatchewan between now and spring melt, “surface water supply issues are likely to occur” this spring in that region.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. Includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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Meanwhile, dry conditions are expected to continue across the Prairies.

AccuWeather’s report forecasts below-normal temperatures for B.C. and western Alberta going into spring. That could delay the snowpack from melting, leading to an increased risk of flooding.

“The result of this expected weather pattern will be above-normal snowpack and river levels that may lead to a higher-than-usual threat for spring flooding due to excessive runoff and ice jams in B.C. and western Alberta by late spring and into early summer,” AccuWeather meteorologist Brett Anderson said in a news release.

Anderson, a specialist in long-range forecasting for the private weather service, explained there are two storm tracks, with one helping stir up storms across B.C. and elsewhere in Canada, something quite typical during a La Nina.

The other track will veer south into the northern U.S. Plains, taking away opportunities for precipitation from the Prairies. In turn, that’s expected intensify the current dry conditions across the Prairies.

“However, it is still very early and conditions can change quickly in early spring, thus additional updates on the spring flood risk are likely through the season,” Anderson added.

There could be a risk of wildfires in southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, he cautioned, should the dryness become quite severe during the spring.

For Ontario and Quebec, as well as Atlantic Canada, AccuWeather forecasts above-normal precipitation during the spring. While that will replenish depleted soil moisture levels in a number of parts of Eastern Canada, the likelihood of more precipitation could result in flash flooding.

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“We have seen significant departures from normal in terms of precipitation (on the Prairies over) a long period. The winter hasn’t been above average (for precipitation) so there hasn’t been a whole lot of recovery,” said Trevor Hadwen, agroclimate specialist with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) in Regina.

AAFC’s drought monitor map, updated March 31, shows improved conditions compared to the month before. There are still extreme drought conditions in Saskatchewan around Weyburn and Regina; however, the area is smaller. Throughout most of southeastern Saskatchewan there are severe drought conditions and in other parts of southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba there are moderate drought conditions. Throughout central Alberta it is abnormally dry.

Abnormally cool conditions throughout the end of March and start of April have led to a slow snowmelt, with temperatures warming during the day, only to drop down below 0 C overnight.

The start of winter saw a parched Prairie. In many areas, above-ground water sources dried up, along with the soil. There are a lot of water supply issues for farms, Hadwen said, due to the drought last year.

“We’re looking for those dugouts to fill up with the spring melt. But depending how we melt this year, if we get a slow melt the water tends to go to the soil. If we get a quicker melt it might run off into some of those on surface water supplies.”

While the late-season snow has been welcomed by farmers across Western Canada, as it brought much-needed moisture, the cool temperatures are leading to a delayed spring.

According to meteorologists at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), the Prairies will see abnormally cool temperatures continue throughout April. Temperatures will start to hit above 0 C as of the week of April 15, but closer-to-seasonal temperatures won’t arrive until May.

“We have to get rid of the snow on the ground and then temperatures will have a chance to rebound. But in the meantime, for the next couple of weeks, below-average temperatures are forecast and really all the way through until the end of April,” said John Paul Cragg, warning preparedness meteorologist with ECCC in Saskatoon.

Southern Alberta still has a thick snow cover, meaning temperatures won’t start to rise until that melts.

Alberta “went into the winter very dry in the southern portions of the province. They’ve been through a couple of freeze, thaw, melt cycles with the chinooks through there, so a lot of the snow in the west is gone, but conditions have improved significantly,” Hadwen said.

In Manitoba there has been a low amount of snow accumulation. According to Hadwen, there has been about an inch of moisture across most of southern Manitoba, which equates to about 25 millimetres of rain, which isn’t very good for winter snow accumulations.

The situation is better in Saskatchewan; around Regina there are between two to three inches of snow.

“So certainly a little bit better and (there’s) more chance of improvement over the next month. But again (that’s) not near as much (snow) as we normally would get,” Hadwen said.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @ashleymr1993 on Twitter.

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Levels of spring flooding still depend on future weather conditions, Infrastructure Minister Blaine Pedersen said Friday in the province’s March flood outlook, but the risk of overland flooding is “slightly reduced” from the February outlook.

Flooding risk, he said, remains “moderate to major” across the province.

“At this time, the Souris River basin continues to be of concern while favourable weather conditions have eased expected flows in the Red River Basin,” he said, so the chance is low of closing Highway 75, the principal highway from Winnipeg to the U.S.

Right now, the province said, it’s anticipated the province’s major flood infrastructure, including the Red River Floodway and the Portage Diversion, would be activated under unfavourable weather conditions.

The province on Wednesday announced it’s increasing outflow from the Shellmouth Reservoir, a flood control structure on the Assiniboine River at the Saskatchewan border, to 600 cubic feet per second.

More increases in outflow on the Shellmouth are expected over the next few days to maintain storage in the reservoir for anticipated spring runoff, the province said.

With “unfavourable” weather, the province said, the outlook suggests “major” risk on watersheds in the southwestern region; “moderate to major” risk on the Pembina, Roseau River and Assiniboine Rivers; “major” risk in the eastern region and on the Winnipeg River; “moderate” risk in the Interlake region and on the Red and Fisher rivers; and moderate risk in northern Manitoba, around The Pas regions and on the Saskatchewan, Carrot and Swan rivers.

Pedersen, after a municipal tour of potentially affected areas in the southwest, said the province is planning for flooding based on unfavourable weather conditions and the scenario of highest flood risk.

The province said it plans to provide daily flood information to municipalities once runoff begins, to “fine tune” flood preparations. — AGCanada.com Network

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The province’s Water Security Agency on Thursday released a March spring runoff forecast pointing to two “areas of concern” — the province’s far southeastern corner, and the Red Deer River basin in east-central Saskatchewan near Hudson Bay.

Saskatchewan’s heaviest snowpack is in the areas below the Rafferty and Alameda reservoirs in southeastern Saskatchewan and near the Manitoba border, the province said. Those areas, in the Souris River basin, were wetter than normal at freeze-up in 2016.

“Unless conditions are favourable leading up to and during the spring melt, well above normal flows are expected,” the province said.

Snowstorms seen earlier this week are expected to “add slightly” to snowpack in those areas “but not have a major impact.”

“Out-of-channel” flows are expected in those areas, the province added, but “significant” flood damages aren’t expected “unless conditions significantly change leading up to and/or during the spring melt.”

Manitoba, in late February, issued a spring flood outlook that pointed to “major risk” of overland flooding along the Souris and lower Assiniboine Rivers, among others.

Near Hudson Bay, Saskatchewan’s report said Thursday, the “well above normal” moisture conditions seen in the fall of 2016, combined with a near normal snowpack, are expected to result in above normal flows on the Red Deer River.

Manitoba in late February said the Red Deer River near Erwood, just east of Hudson Bay, was tracking “above normal streamflow conditions” and could have a “major risk” of flooding under unfavourable weather.

Much of Saskatchewan saw “well above seasonal temperature episodes” in January and February, leading to snowmelt and runoff in February, the province said, noting the area south of Biggar and west of Avonlea saw the “complete melt” of its snowpack in mid-February.

Given the current “near normal” mountain snowpack, runoff conditions are expected to be near normal throughout the Saskatchewan River system over the next six months, assuming normal conditions going forward, the province said.

Lake Diefenbaker, meanwhile, is now at an above-normal level for this time of year, but “will be returned to near normal levels prior to the end of May.”

Most water supply reservoirs were at or above normal levels in the fall of 2016, so surface water supplies across the province are expected to be “adequate” in 2017.  Snowmelt runoff is also expected to replenish reservoirs that were below normal levels in 2016, such as Nickel Lake and Boundary Reservoir. — AGCanada.com Network

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Keystone Agricultural Producers president Dan Mazier, speaking from a conference in the U.S., said only about 50 per cent of the normal amount of fertilizer went on Manitoba fields last fall due to the late harvest.

While many were likely hoping for a dry March to help them get onto fields sooner, that likely won’t be happening.

“All that pre-melting we had during February is all gone now,” said Mazier. “We’re back to where we started.”

There is a lot of crop to get off first also, he noted, so producers will be scrambling when the ground is dry enough to get on.

“In hindsight it may not be a bad thing that the fertilizer didn’t go on, as there will be runoff with the wet spring,” he said.

The story is a different one in Alberta, where much of the southern part of the province is considerably drier.

“I guess one of the big things to look for is how dry the crop is left out in the field,” said Lynn Jacobson, president of the Alberta Federation of Agriculture.

Speaking from his farm southeast of Calgary, he said some producers are optimistic they’ll be able to start laying down fertilizer next month.

“People will probably be out by the 10th of April working things. Still, you can’t say for sure,” he said.

The price of nitrogen fertilizer has increased slightly since the fall, he said, but many farmers he knows pre-purchased their supplies.

“Probably the large majority of people have pre-bought three-quarters of their usage,” he said.

That approach was taken by a lot of farmers in Manitoba too, according to Mazier.

“Guys have it priced and bought up, but the logistics of getting it onto the ground is the bigger challenge,” he said, adding prices have gone up roughly C$20 a tonne since the fall.

Some producers will likely be buying right now, he added, as not everyone can hang onto fertilizer through the winter.

“You might have got a good deal on the fall but if you can’t get on the land, then you have to store it.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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Saskatchewan’s Water Security Agency on Thursday released its 2017 preliminary outlook for spring runoff, noting the province has another six to 10 weeks of possible snowpack development.

The outlook assumes normal snowfall leading up to the spring melt, and a normal rate of snowmelt. More snow or a fast melt could also mean flooding, even in areas where below-normal runoff is now forecast.

So far, though, “many areas saw the snowpack almost completely melt or lost to sublimation in January due to above-normal temperatures.”

This melting of snowpack, however, “would have saturated the soil surface, reducing the infiltration capacity available for the melt of any late-season snow.”

A below-normal runoff might not mean reduced flood risk, the WSA added, as many regions with closed basins, such as wetlands and “terminal” lakes, are at “well above normal or record levels following several high-runoff years.”

Furthermore, the agency said, a majority of Saskatchewan was wetter than normal going into freeze-up in November 2016, so higher-than-normal precipitation going forward, and/or a “rapid” spring melt, could “significantly increase the runoff potential.”

In the province’s southeast, the WSA noted, the snowpack is “near normal, increasing to well above normal in the very southeast corner.”

For that reason, above-normal runoff is expected in the lower Souris River Basin below the province’s Rafferty and Alameda Dams, including the Antler River, Gainsborough Creek, and Lightning Creek basins.

The outlook for southeastern Saskatchewan may compound flooding worries downstream in Manitoba.

Manitoba’s latest preliminary flood forecast at the end of January found that with future unfavourable conditions, the province’s southwest, along with the Souris, Red, Pembina, Lower Assiniboine and Roseau river areas, are now at risk of major flooding.

Manitoba’s first full provincial flood outlook is expected at the end of February. — AGCanada.com Network

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The Wigle Creek subwatershed, west of Leamington, has turned into ground zero in long-term research on how farmers can reduce phosphorus running into the lake. Phosphorus from various sources, including farm fields, is being blamed for an increase in algae growth in Lake Erie.

The watershed is perfect for finding a baseline for phosphorus levels in the soils and how they run to the lake, says Denotter, who recommended it to the Essex Regional Conservation Authority (ERCA) for its Priority Subwatershed Project.

The subwatershed project is part of the Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative which funds changes to agricultural practices in watersheds that feed into Lake Erie.

The funding for the project is into its third year and the last intake for the project was in the late fall.

Projects gobbling up the entire funding were submitted in about the first five minutes, said Chris Snip, a certified crop advisor with Agris Co-operative. He is based at the Agris office in Cottam and was interviewed at the Chatham-Kent Farm Show.

Farmers who have got funding to help with new equipment have generally bought or modified equipment to more precisely place fertilizer or to strip till crops.

The starting point for farmers is a farmland health checkup, which involves working with a certified crop advisor to look at erosion, organic matter, soil health, soil chemistry and phosphorus levels.

Those who complete the free checkup are then eligible to apply for funding to improve best management practices. Farms in a subwatershed project are available for even greater funding — up to 80 per cent of projects.

That has allowed almost every farm in the Wigle Creek subwatershed to conduct soil tests, providing an extensive benchmark of phosphorus levels across the area.

Denotter said during an interview at the farm show that “the greatest thing about the watershed program is that we need a baseline.”

The Wigle Creek is already part of a monitoring program as part of a project to monitor greenhouse runoff. It has no greenhouses feeding water into its watershed, so serves as a baseline to other area watersheds.

Denotter, a past president of the Ontario Soil and Crop Improvement Association (OSCIA), has taken the funding he’s received and purchased a Salford 2000 variable rate fertilizer cart that allows him to place fertilizer more precisely. They no longer broadcaster fertilizer. He’s also customized a John Deere air seeder for precision fertilizer and seed placement.

Denotter says he and his family are conservationists and that he’s motivated to reduce his runoff of phosphorus because “I don’t like to see green water,” in the lake.

The second largest farmer in the watershed, he was an early adopter of no-till farming and was recognized in January by the conservation authority with its education award.

The other large farmer uses a lot of plowing, he noted, so the subwatershed is a good place to compare phosphorus movement and tillage practices.

The program has expanded the number of farmers who are soil testing, said Snip, who has been helping lead the Agris work on phosphorus reduction because of a personal interest: He lives near the lake.

Snip was recognized by Agris parent co-op Growmark with one of its Endure 4R Advocate awards last year, one of four winners in North America.

The 4R nutrient management program is a certification program that encourages the reduced and proper use of fertilizers across North America. About 10 per cent of Ontario certified crop advisors are certified under the 4R program, said Snip. The Agris board of directors recently adopted a 4R Stewardship pledge.

The GLASI program is administered by OSCIA.

— John Greig is a field editor for Glacier FarmMedia based at Ailsa Craig, Ont. Follow him at @jgreig on Twitter.

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Gophers have been reported causing problems in southern, central and northeastern Alberta for canola crops and pastures, according to the provincial Crop Report.

“It’s been dry again this year and that triggered them; it’s been quite a problem,” said Phil Merrill, Alberta Agriculture’s pest specialist in Lethbridge.

Cereal crops have seen some damage; however they are able to outgrow the gophers before too much damage is done, Merrill said.

Canola crops don’t seem to be as lucky. “It’s very hard on canola crops,” Merrill said.

“It’s also devastating for pastures as far as mounding and damage to the pasture… for driving across it and machinery and stuff like that.”

Due to the dry spring last year, he said he expected gophers might rear their little heads, but producers seem to have been caught off guard.

“We tried to get the message out, but I don’t know how successful we were… at this point it’s too late to control (the gophers) with bait, that has to be done in March or April.”

Crops in Saskatchewan have avoided any damage so far, but have seen an increase in gopher population due to drier conditions, said Scott Hartley, pest management specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture in Regina.

“One of the things that seems to keep (the gopher) population down is a good spring runoff,” said Hartley.

“When that runoff is coming they’re wet and cold, and there isn’t enough of a reasonable food source for them to keep body heat… Last winter there wasn’t a huge amount of runoff so that’s part of it.”

Manitoba crops have also escaped the tiny jaws of gophers, which isn’t abnormal, said Rejean Picard, farm production advisor with Manitoba Agriculture at Somerset, Man.

“In my 28 years I’ve never seen a (gopher) epidemic,” Picard said. “Sometimes you see them take up a corner of a crop here and there, but this year I’ve heard no reports of any issues.”

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @ErinDeBooy on Twitter.

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