The futures market in the United States saw gains in Minneapolis spring wheat, as well as Chicago and Kansas City winter wheat.

Statistics Canada issued its principal field crops report on Aug. 28, projecting all wheat production in 2024/25 at 34.73 million tonnes, with spring wheat account for 25.35 million tonnes, durum at 6.02 million and winter wheat at three million.

United States wheat slipped four points in the weekly crop progress report from the Department of Agriculture, raising some concerns about quality. However, the decline of French soft wheat crop, both in output and especially quality, weighed on values.

The Canadian dollar rose during the week, adding seven-tenths of a cent, which put some pressure on Prairie cash prices.

Average CWRS (13.5%) prices added C$1.40 to C$5.20 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about C$237.70 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$260.50 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$20.80 to C$44.50 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars (C$1=US$0.7422), CWRS bids ranged from US$176.40 to US$193.30 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$23.70 to US$40.50 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$17.60 to C$30.10 below the futures.

Average CPRS (11.5%) wheat tacked on C$1.80 to rising $10.60 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$203.70 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$228.30 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices were trimmed by 60 cents to gaining C$2.90 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$285.80 per tonne in northwestern Saskatchewan to C$300.90 per tonne in western Manitoba.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$5.9050 per bushel on Aug. 29, up 6.50 cents on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The December Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$5.3700 per bushel on Aug. 29, rising 15.50 cents from a week ago.

The December Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.4875 per bushel on Aug. 129, up 13.25 cents.

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Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City failed to reach an agreement with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference by the deadline of midnight Aug. 22. As a result, traffic on both railways was halted simultaneously for the first time ever. Later that day, Canadian Labour Minister Steve MacKinnon announced he sent the dispute to binding arbitration and ordered operations at CN Rail to resume as soon as possible.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported 316,100 tonnes of wheat export sales during the week ended Aug. 18, compared to 528,000 the week before. The total for the first two weeks of the 2024-25 marketing year at 841,100 tonnes exceeded the total from one year ago at 624,100 tonnes.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a total of 492,700 tonnes of wheat sold for export during the week ended Aug. 15, a five-week high and at the higher end of trade expectations.

Spring wheat conditions in the U.S. were up one point from the previous week at 73 per cent good to excellent as of Aug. 18, according to the USDA. The country’s spring wheat harvest was 31 per cent complete, behind the historical average of 36 per cent, while the winter wheat harvest was 96 per cent complete.

Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) dropped C$5.70 to C$16.30 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$233.40/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$259.10 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$24.60 to C$50.30/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7352), CWRS bids were from US$171.60 to US$190.50/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$18.30 to US$37.20 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$13.50 to C$27.40 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) prices were down C$9.80 to C$12.90 per tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$199.90 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$226.10 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were down C$0.60 to up C$2.90 per tonne with bids between C$286.60 in northwest Saskatchewan to C$298.90 in western Manitoba.

The September spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$5.6825 per bushel on Aug. 22 and 18 U.S. cents lower than the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The September contract was quoted at US$5.2925/bu., down 7.75 U.S. cents.

The September Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat contract lost 17.25 U.S. cents from the previous week at US$5.11/bu.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.61 of a U.S. cent to close at 73.52 cents U.S. by Aug. 22.

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The futures market in the United States saw gains in Minneapolis spring wheat and losses for Chicago and Kansas City winter wheat.

The United States Department of Agriculture issued its supply and demand report on Aug. 12, showing total domestic production slipping to 1.98 billion bushels in 2024/25 compared to the 2.01 billion harvested the previous year. Planted wheat acres in the U.S. for 2024/25 contracted by 900,000 from a year ago at 46.3 million.

The Canadian dollar rose during the week, adding approximately seven-tenths of a cent.

Average CWRS (13.5%) prices dropped $7.80 to bumping up C$0.40 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about C$241.00 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$265.20 per tonne in northwestern Saskatchewan.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$25.50 to C$49.70 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars (C$1=US$0.7291), CWRS bids ranged from US$175.70 to US$193.30 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$22.10 to US$39.70 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$16.10 to C$29.00 below the futures.

Average CPRS (11.5%) wheat dipped $2.90 to rising $2.10 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$210.00 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$235.90 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices dipped 0.60 to adding C$2.90 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$291.50 per tonne in northwestern Saskatchewan to C$306.00 per tonne in western Manitoba.

The September spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$5.8625 per bushel on Aug. 15, up one cent on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The September Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$5.3700 per bushel on Aug. 15, dropping 14.50 cents from a week ago.

The September Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.2825 per bushel on Aug. 15, retreating 9.25 cents.

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Average Canada Western Red Spring (13.5%) wheat prices were down C$0.90 to down C$3.30 per tonne across the Prairies, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from C$244.80 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to as high as C$272.60 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $29.70 to $57.60 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting everything into Canadian dollars (C$1=US$0.7276) CWRS basis levels ranged from C$12.10 to C$26.90 below the futures.

Canada Prairie Spring Red (CPSR) wheat bids were down by C$2.70 to C$5.20 per tonne, with prices ranging from C$207.90 to C$238.80 per tonne.

Average durum prices were down by C$0.80 to C$2.80 per tonne, ranging from C$291.20 to C$306.00 per tonne.

Spring wheat futures in Minneapolis were down by 3.25 cents per bushel in the September contract to settle at US$5.8525 per bushel on Aug. 8.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The September Kansas City wheat contract was down by 3.00 cents at US$5.5150 per bushel on Aug. 8.

The September Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.3750 per bushel on Aug. 8, recovering from earlier losses to gain 5.50 cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar strengthened relative to its United States counterpart, up by about half a cent at 72.76 U.S. cents on Aug. 8.

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The Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) reported 350,100 tonnes of wheat were exported during the week ended July 21, the second-last week of the 2023-24 marketing year. The amount was higher than the 306,000 tonnes exported the week before. Cumulative Canadian wheat exports for 2023-24 were 20.738 million tonnes, compared to 19.162 million one year earlier.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points at 4.5 per cent on July 24, immediately putting pressure on the loonie.

The United States Wheat Quality Council saw much improved spring wheat and durum yields in its annual tour in North Dakota. The average yield was estimated at 54.5 bushels per acre, up from 47.4 bu./acre last year and the five-year average of 42 bu./acre.

However, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported 309,300 tonnes of wheat sold for export during the week ended July 18, near the lower end of trade expectations. Cumulative exports this marketing year were 2.463 million tonnes, slightly better than last year’s pace.

Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat prices were on both sides of unchanged, losing C$0.60 per tonne to gaining C$3.20, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$272.50/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$297.30 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$50.60 to C$75.50/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7236), CWRS bids were from US$197.20 to US$215.10/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$6.70 to US$24.70 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$4.90 to C$17.90 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) prices reported a decline of C$2.80 per tonne to an increase of C$3.60. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$250.50 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$269.40 in northern Alberta.

The average prices for Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were down C$0.40 to C$2.80 per tonne with bids between C$301.30 in northwestern Saskatchewan to C$316.80 in western Manitoba.

The September spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$6.0375 per bushel on July 25 and 3.25 U.S. cents higher than the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The September contract was quoted at US$5.6150/bu., down 1.25 U.S. cents.

The September Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat contract gained 2.50 U.S. cents from the previous week at US$5.3775/bu.

The Canadian dollar dropped 1.04 U.S. cents to close at 72.36 cents U.S. on July 25.

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Prospects for a good spring wheat crop in the U.S., pressure from the winter wheat harvest, and very little bullish news weighed on wheat values.

The Canadian dollar lost nearly four-tenths of a cent during the week, despite little movement in the loonie over the last few days.

Average CWRS (13.5%) prices dropped $10.80 to tacking on C$2.90 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about C$271.60 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$296.10 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$50.90 to C$75.50 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars (C$1=US$0.7301), CWRS bids ranged from US$198.30 to US$216.20 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$4.40 to US$22.40 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$3.20 to C$16.30 below the futures.

Average CPRS (11.5%) wheat fell $7 to $15.30 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$247.90 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$267.00 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices dropped C$13.10 to C$15.70 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$301.70 per tonne in northwestern Saskatchewan to C$317.40 per tonne in western Manitoba.

The September spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$6.0050 per bushel on July 18, losing 18.25 cents on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The September Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$5.6275 per bushel on July 18, dropping 21 cents from a week ago.

The September Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.3525 per bushel on July 18, retreating 26 cents.

The Canadian dollar closed July 28 at 73.02 U.S. cents, giving up 39/100ths of a cent.

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Although good planting progress for U.S. spring wheat weighed on values, recent storms in parts of the country tempered those declines.

There was very little net change in the Canadian dollar during the week, as it flirted with either side of 73 U.S. cents.

Average CWRS (13.5%) prices dropped 11 cents to C$4.30 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about C$278.20 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$295.20 per tonne in northern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$53.80 to C$70.80 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars (C$1=US$0.7305), CWRS bids ranged from US$203.20 to US$215.60 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$8.80 to US$21.20 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$6.40 to C$15.50 below the futures.

Average CPRS (11.5%) wheat was up 11 cents to down $1.32 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$258.30 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$279.10 per tonne in northern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices dropped C$10.70 to C$14.00 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$340.20 per tonne in northwestern Saskatchewan to C$356.80 per tonne in western Manitoba.

The July spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$6.1075 per bushel on June 27, losing eight cents on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The July Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$5.9200 per bushel on June 27, unchanged from a week ago.

The July Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.5975 per bushel on June 27, falling 13 cents.
The Canadian dollar closed June 27 at 73.05 U.S. cents, tacking on 5/100ths of a cent.

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Jerry Klassen of Winnipeg-based Resilient Commodity Analysis said conditions so far have been optimal for the wheat variety and if all goes well, above-average yields could be on the horizon.

“We’ve had significant rains in western Saskatchewan through the growing season. Seeding was a little bit delayed in some areas, but for the most part, the crop is off to a great start,” he said.

However, Klassen recalled that last year’s crop was also off to a great start before dryness and drought conditions reigned supreme from mid-June to the end of the growing season.

“That resulted in lower yields. Right now, I would say the crop is just about the same or a little bit better at this time,” he said. “This year, it looks like the forecast calls for regular rains in the durum areas and we’re not expected to see the extreme heat like we had last year in the summer.”

Klassen estimated that six million acres of durum wheat were seeded this year across Canada with expected production at approximately 7.5 million tonnes. In Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) monthly principal field crops outlook released on June 20, the agency estimated 6.343 million acres with production at 5.655 million tonnes. Statistics Canada (StatCan) will release their latest acreage estimates on June 27.

Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) prices in Western Canada as of June 21 ranged from C$349.87 to C$366.48 per tonne (C$9.52 to C$9.97 per bushel) according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes).

As durum growers are usually reluctant to forward-sell, according to Klassen, prices in Canada are now at a similar level to those in Europe.

“What we’re seeing here is a relatively bigger crop developing in Turkey than last year. So we’re expecting an increase in Turkish exports and that harvest is going to move into full swing here in July,” he said, adding that the durum harvest is also expected next month in southern France and Spain.

Areas that have already begun their harvest are so far reporting good quality with slightly below-average yields.

“What’s happened is not (so much) Canadian farmer selling, but we’re seeing farm selling from other areas in Turkey and also in Europe … There’s significant harvest pressure in the durum market now. Canadian durum values probably are a little bit overvalued yet compared to where we could see prices a month from now.”

Klassen expects prices to stay put and then decline as growers jump at the chance to convert their durum crop into cash flow.

“The Canadian market will likely stay flat for the next three to four weeks and then maybe come under a little bit of pressure at harvest yet, but we’re not expecting a rally until probably next spring when the market starts to factor in lower acreage in Canada and the United States,” he said.

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The Canadian Grain Commission reported 420,700 tonnes of wheat exports for the week ended May 26, 52,000 less than the week before. So far in the 2023-24 marketing year, 18.039 million tonnes have been exported, compared to 16.467 million one year ago.

In Saskatchewan, 84 per cent of the province’s spring wheat crop was planted as of May 27, while in Manitoba, 87 per cent of spring wheat acres were seeded as of May 28. Spring wheat seeding in Alberta was 72.2 per cent complete as of May 21.

Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat prices were down C$1.40 to C$4.20 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$332.80/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$352.70 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$60.10 to C$80/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7311), CWRS bids were from US$243.30 to US$257.80/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$14.80 to US$29.30 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$10.80 to C$21.50 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) prices were up C$0.30 to down C$2.90/tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$313.10 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$334.70 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were down C$0.80 to C$2.50 per tonne with bids between C$375.80 in southern Alberta to C$394.40 in western Manitoba.

The July spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$7.42 per bushel on May 30 and two U.S. cents lower than the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The July contract was quoted at US$7.095/bu., down 1.25 U.S. cents.

The July Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat contract lost 17 U.S. cents from the previous week at US$6.81/bu.
The Canadian dollar advanced 0.13 U.S. cents to close at 73.11 cents on May 30.

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After a slow start to seeding earlier this spring, planting progress accelerated on the Prairies over the past week. In Saskatchewan, spring wheat planting jumped from 12 per cent in the first week of May to 36 per cent the week after.

In Manitoba, spring wheat and barley planting was at 58 per cent as of May 12 after only being nine per cent complete the week before. However, recent rains across the Prairies may hinder further progress.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported 493,800 tonnes of wheat exports for the week ended May 12, less than the 604,900 shipped the week before. So far in 2023-24, 17.113 million tonnes of Canadian wheat were exported compared to 15.981 million one year ago.

The first two days of the Wheat Quality Council’s hard red wheat tour of Kansas showed an average yield of 45.8 bushels per acre, a three-year high exceeding the sub-30 bu./ac. yields from last year. Fields surveyed in Oklahoma averaged a 33.68 bu./ac. yield, slightly less than expected.

Last week, three grain-producing states in Russia declared states of emergency after frosts severely damaged crops including wheat. On May 16, SovEcon cut its 2024-25 Russian wheat production estimate by 3.9 million tonnes at 85.7 million.

Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat prices were up C$4 to C$6.90 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$323.80/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$341.50 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$59 to C$76.60/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7342), CWRS bids were from US$237.80 to US$250.70/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$14.10 to US$27.10 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$10.40 to C$19.90 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) prices were up C$7 to C$7.60/tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$299.90 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$324 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were down C$8.50 to up C$0.70 per tonne with bids between C$383.50 in northwest Saskatchewan to C$400.10 in western Manitoba.

The July spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$7.2075 per bushel on May 16 and 17 U.S. cents higher than the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The July contract was quoted at US$6.7325/bu., up 21.5 U.S. cents.

The July Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat contract gained 25.75 U.S. cents from the previous week at US$6.6325/bu.

The Canadian dollar advanced 0.38 U.S. cents to close at 73.42 cents U.S. on May 16.

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