Baldwin, AgChieve’s manager of advisory services, said Canada has its lowest ending stocks for feed grains in the last 35 years. On the world stage, global feed grains stocks are at a 23-year low.

“That’s good for prices. Good underpinning strength to say ‘we need to grow more barley to get that replenished,'” he said.

Feed barley is currently in the $5.50 per bushel range, according to Baldwin, who noted that’s the highest price since 2013.

The story is very similar for feed wheat, with prices between $5.50 and $6 per bushel.

Around Lethbridge’s Feedlot Alley, prices are at the higher end, according to Baldwin, noting wheat has been at its best level since 2016.

“If I look at it from a charting perspective… I could draw a pretty good line at that $5.50. That’s your resistance,” he said.

For the short term, Baldwin does not expect feed grain prices to drop dramatically for the remainder of the 2018-19 crop year.

While corn imports from the U.S. continue, he said the Canadian dollar has helped to keep wheat and barley competitive.

“With a 75 (U.S.)-cent dollar, for every dollar you spend on corn costs you $1.30. So US$4 corn is $5.20 in Canada,” he explained.

As for domestic corn, Baldwin said it’s around the $5-$5.50 range in Manitoba.

— Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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For much of 2017 and the early portion of 2018, corn prices in Western Canada were hanging around the $4-$4.30 per bushel range.

A few weeks ago prices started to climb and recently hit the $4.50-$4.80 range.

According to Myron Krahn, a director with the Manitoba Corn Growers Association, last week’s planning intentions report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture helped solidify the spike.

“The report talked about a lower corn crop than the market was expecting,” he explained. USDA pegged this year’s corn crop in the U.S. at 89.3 million acres, 2.2 million fewer than the year before.

By comparison, western Canadian farmers seeded 470,000 acres of corn in 2017, according to Statistics Canada. The agency is scheduled to release its first estimates for 2018 on April 27.

The price increase means farmers may start to make some profits, rather than just breaking even, Krahn said.

“We’ve come up 30 to 50 cents which doesn’t sound like a lot but we’re working with such tight margins to begin with.”

That’s a spot price, Krahn noted, so it may not be enough of a catalyst on its own to increase this year’s acreage.

If the increase ever spread to the futures market though, he says more farmers could decide to plant corn. As well, seeding problems in the U.S. could sway producers’ minds.

Manitoba corn is still heading to southern Alberta, he added, but shipments are slowing down due to rail backlogs.

“Now it’s going by truck, which is more costly and less efficient. That almost put the lid on the idea of shipping corn to the west.”

The rest is mostly being sold at home with little, if any, going to the U.S.

Going forward, Krahn said he’d like to see some warmer weather and rain.

According to an agronomist with the Manitoba Corn Growers Association, cold temperatures in March may have actually helped cut down on the potential for pest problems this spring.

“The mix of dry and cold may have killed (cutworm) larvae in the soil,” said Morgan Cott. “They are the biggest concern in the first month.”

Farmers will likely be planting in fairly dry conditions this spring, she said, but traditionally May has seen timely showers help get things started.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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“Supply seems to be tight in general. There’s not a lot of offers on either corn or barley at the moment. And demand is higher than expected coming into March,” said Brandon Motz, sales manager at CorNine Commodities in Lacombe, Alta.

Manitoba corn has been making its way to feedlots lately, but according to Motz logistics are coming into play making corn from south of the border more attractive.

“A large of chunk of (corn) is coming from (the U.S.) simply because we can move in 100 cars at a time. It’s just logistically a little easier to manage,” he said.

Supply has been consistent from Manitoba, but at smaller volumes than from the U.S.; corn from the U.S. is also cheaper, due to large U.S. stocks.

However, corn prices across the board are on the upswing due to increased demand and tightened supplies.

In the last two weeks, Manitoba corn has rallied 20 cents, according to Motz. Manitoba corn bids are sitting between $4.40 and $4.50 a bushel picked up from the farm as of Wednesday.

U.S. corn also has seen an increase lately and is sitting in the $2.32-$2.35 per bushel range for delivery to feedlot, according to Motz.

“I would think anybody that’s gotten on the corn program is looking to reload with corn before the April, May, June cycle. If barley became fairly attractive versus corn, you could convince them to switch, but coming in through March the timeline’s getting fairly tight,” he said.

The Alberta barley market is heating up, though, according to Motz. As feed supplies tighten, interest is increasing for feed barley.

At CornNine, feed barley for pickup in central Alberta was sitting Wednesday at $4.40-$4.60 per bushel.

Feed oats, however, aren’t seeing a lot of interest. According to Motz, there isn’t a strong supply of feed oats, which makes them less attractive to feedlots.

“There’s always interest but once again a strong supply is always a factor,” he said. “I would say next to corn and barley, wheat is probably the next favourable commodity but once again, price point becomes an issue.”

Feed oats on Wednesday at CorNine were at $2.80-$3 for farm pickup; however, Motz said that isn’t a firm number, just an indication.

Feed wheat was sitting in the $5.50-$5.60 per bushel range for pickup in central Alberta.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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According to Allan Pirness of Market Place Commodities, both feed barley and feed wheat prices are around the $220 per tonne mark, down a touch from the pre-Christmas spike.

“The deliveries are back on schedule,” he said.

Cold weather at the end of December had resulted in a slightly higher price, he said, but the temperatures are becoming milder and driving conditions are better.

Bids could creep lower, he added, as a lot of finished cattle are leaving the feedlots.

“They are shipping them out earlier than they would normally, because the packers are bidding them up pretty good,” said Pirness.

Some cattle that were supposed to be shipped out later this month or in February are already gone, he said.

“That has made a lower demand for barley here as we go into the February market,” he said.

Pirness doesn’t expect to see a return to the highs of late December until the summertime at the earliest. However, he said, that still depends on whether the flood of corn that has entered the province still continues to pile up.

“The abundance of corn coming from southern Manitoba has muted the likelihood of a near-term rally of any substance,” he said.

Last week’s USDA supply and demand report also weighed down the wheat market, further adding to barley’s competition, he said.

“There’s no incentive for prices to stay up,” said Pirness. “It looks like forward prices here are under some pressure going forward so there’s no real incentive to hang on.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“It’s encouraging on the price outlook to see they (U.S. farmers) put less acres in,” said Myron Krahn, president of Manitoba Corn Growers.

Some analysts have estimated the losses in the U.S. to be in the four million-acre range. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently rated much of the crop in Illinois and Idaho in the fair to poor category.

While conditions in Western Canada were also wet during the spring, Krahn said our crop has started to establish nicely.

“Conditions are fairly good provincewide,” he said. “As we sit here on June 6, probably 80 to 90 per cent of the corn crop has emerged by now.”

Over the past few months, Krahn says prices have been in the $4-$4.30 per bushel range, with new-crop supplies getting a little over $4.

“Really, since last fall, the price has bounced around a narrow trading range,” he said.

However, with the loss of U.S. acres and a healthy Manitoba crop, Krahn thinks this could improve slightly.

“I think $4.50 (a bushel) farmers would be happier sellers,” he noted.

Going forward, he said, the crop could use warm temperatures, warm nights and rain every 10 days or so.

“Big parts of the province are looking for rain, not that the crop is stressing or anything. But with the heat it’s growing fast.”

However, Krahn said, extremely hot days aren’t going to help development very much.

“Anything over 30 degrees (C) is not ideal for corn.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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The Manitoba Corn Growers Association (MCGA), Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers Association (MPSG), National Sunflower Association of Canada (NSAC) and the Manitoba Wheat and Barley Association (MWBGA), all of which are headquartered at Carman, Man., announced their MOU Tuesday along with the Winnipeg-based Manitoba Flax Growers Association (MFGA).

“This MOU signals a more formalized relationship between all the involved commodity groups as we work together to explore new and innovate ways in how our organizations can improve efficiencies and deliver maximum value to our memberships,” Pam de Rocquigny, joint general manager since January for the MWBGA and MCGA, said in a release.

The five groups said they plan to hire an advisor by early June, to come up with a a work plan that includes “timelines and consultation with members.” According to the groups’ preliminary timeline, member consultations would start in about December.

The groups emphasized Tuesday they have “no predetermination of what this common commodity organization will eventually look like,” except that they would make sure farmers from each commodity organization “will have a strong, critical voice in shaping this merger.”

The MOU follows more than three years of talks on how the groups could “better work together to maximize member value,” the groups said.

Retired MCGA general manager Theresa Bergsma told the Manitoba Co-operator in February that the “seed” for the idea came from one southern Manitoba grower, Danny Penner of Halbstadt, who called on commodity groups to make better use of checkoff funds through a merger.

A motion around the board table was passed in November 2014 to begin investing “minimal dollars” pursuing the idea of “working together to increase efficiencies,” later followed by monthly meetings on the topic, the groups said.

For example, Bergsma noted in February, most commodity groups have their own specific agronomists, but could benefit from improved co-ordination and efficiency by working under one blanket body.

However, if growers expect to see reduced commodity checkoffs as a result of a merger, that’s “not necessarily going to happen,” Bergsma said at the time. “It is more about using the money and then leverag(ing) it.”

“Good farming is about growing more than one crop. I represent one farm that grows multiple crops,” Jason Voth, chair of MPSG’s board, said in Tuesday’s joint release. “This merger makes sense.”

The notion of a merged provincial-level body for multiple crop commodities isn’t new by itself. Grain Farmers of Ontario, for example, has represented that province’s corn, soy and wheat growers since 2008, plus its barley and oat growers since mid-2015.

The MPSG, for another example, has operated since 1983, collected checkoffs since 1989 and worked out of Carman since 2000. The MWBGA formed in 2013 and began jointly collecting spring wheat and barley checkoffs the following February, also setting up an “administrative support agreement” with Manitoba Corn Growers.

The five Manitoba groups, along with the Manitoba Canola Growers Association, Manitoba Oat Growers Association and Manitoba Seed Growers Association, have also already begun holding their annual general meetings at a single event, the CropConnect Conference.

Other “like-minded” commodity groups may also join the merger talks, as long as they have the “same level of commitment to delivering value and increasing profitability among their farmer members,” the five groups said Tuesday.

Other interested organizations will have an opportunity to join the working group in April 2018, after the first phase of the merger process has been completed, the five groups said. — AGCanada.com Network

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The southwest corner of the province appears to be the wettest, while other areas are drying nicely, according to Pam de Rocquigny, general manager of the Manitoba Corn Growers Association.

“For some producers it (planting) isn’t as far away while others are a few weeks away,” she said.

Over in the Steinbach region, in southeastern Manitoba, there is still excess moisture to burn off, according to area farmer Dennis Thiessen, the group’s vice-president.

“We’re anywhere from 10 days to two weeks away from seeding here,” he said in an interview Tuesday.

It would have been closer, he added, except for showers over the weekend that dumped “probably half to three quarters an inch” of rain on the area.

Time is definitely an issue for corn farmers in Manitoba, as most regions see crop insurance cutoffs happening at the beginning of June.

“June planting is too late,” Thiessen said. “My cutoff is around the 20th for grain corn, silage can go later.”

Last year, producers sowed 330,000 acres in Manitoba, the second largest amount ever. De Rocquigny expects that to continue.

“We’re being kind of hesitant not to put a jinx on what acreage could be,” she said.

Thiessen expects acres will stay steady, as long as Mother Nature co-operates.

“It’s totally dependent on the weather, if we get cool damp days it counts for nothing but if you get 20 C with wind, things dry up quick,” he said.

Prices are down about 10 per cent from the year before, he added, due to the record crop.

“We’re getting around $4.40 a bushel here, $4.30 for some guys,” he noted. “That’s doable but if it drops below $4 it’s tough to get a margin.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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“It appears that the trend is headed toward larger (corn) crops,” said Myron Krahn, president of the Manitoba Corn Growers Association. Better varieties were helping yields in the province, he added, while farmers were also getting better at growing the somewhat intensive crop.

Manitoba grew 1.17 million tonnes of corn on 330,000 harvested acres in 2016, according to Statistics Canada data. The acreage and production were both the second largest ever for the province, but average yields of 139.4 bushels per acre far surpassed the previous record and compare with the prior five-year average of 114 bu./ac.

“There was a period of time during the growing season where it looked like (the corn crop) might not even reach average (yields),” said Krahn.

However, he said, while some fields will be left to overwinter, the end result was better than expected in most cases.

“Long-time growers are putting more corn in, because with the yields we’re getting it’s proving to be profitable,” said Krahn, adding “that’s also enticing new growers to enter the corn business.”

The initial front-end costs for growing corn are high, as specialized equipment is needed, as are grain dryers and extra bin space, he said.

However, those high costs of entering the corn business serve to keep those growers who made the plunge growing corn year after year.

From a pricing standpoint, Krahn said current spot prices in Manitoba of about $3.80 to $4 per bushel are nearing the “tipping point” where some farmers may be looking at other cropping options.

While those prices are still profitable in Manitoba with good yields, he said farmers would rather see $4.50-$5 per bushel.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“I would not all be surprised to see a 20 per cent increase. The value of corn isn’t terrific but it’s not terrible either,” said Myron Krahn, president of the Manitoba Corn Growers Association at Carman.

Manitoba farmers last year planted 250,000 acres of corn.

“Some areas may be too wet, but with an early spring that can get alleviated,” he said.

The toughest question producers may be facing is when to put the seed in the ground, MCGA agronomist Morgan Cott said.

“With corn you kind of have to guarantee some nice weather to be planting, because corn doesn’t like sitting in cold soil,” she said.

The second week of May is generally a good target date for planting corn in the province, she said.

Prices are currently in the $4.50-$4.70 per bushel range which is about average, based on the cost of production, Krahn said.

“Right now corn is still at a profitable level to grow,” he said. “But we’re at the bottom end of that range of the profitability and we don’t want to go too much lower or it could discourage acres.”

However, he said, the province still isn’t producing as much corn to fulfill demand.

“It’s a real good feed energy for animals and for the ethanol industry. It helps keep the price competitive.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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“The southwest was wet, wet, wet and now they’re expecting to be dry, dry, dry. Neither of those conditions is great for corn,” said Morgan Cott, agronomist for the Manitoba Corn Growers Association.

Producers may fill those acres with wheat, oats, or other grasses, she added. It likely won’t be soybeans — often already part of the same rotation as corn.

The short season of 2014 made it tough for many producers to produce a top-notch crop and it may discourage others from even trying, she said.

“Logistically it may not make sense if they don’t have shorter-season hybrids available to them,” she noted, adding some good hybrid varieties were making their way onto the market.

“Not as sexy”

She also pointed out corn growers had a couple of “long” seasons where very little drying of the grain had to be done. It may have convinced some that such seasons would be the norm, when in fact, they were the exception.

“We’re not quite there yet; we do need shorter-season hybrids,” she said.

Roughly a quarter of a million corn acres were put into Western Canada last year, according to Cott, who doubted we’d see so much this season.

“If there’s an increase, I wouldn’t expect it to be great,” she said, noting most seed companies she talked to have also expected acres to be down.

“I think everybody is getting more realistic about the potential of corn and not jumping into it; it’s not looking quite as sexy as it did the past couple of years,” said Cott, adding the average yield was 113 bushels an acre.

It could help corn growers this year if snow leaves the fields by mid-April, she added. “There might be some corn planted by the first week of May for a change.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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