Spot bids for large green lentils delivered to the elevator were trading anywhere from 60 to 76 cents per pound in mid-February 2024, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data. That compares with bids topping out at 50 cents per pound at the same time a year ago. New crop pricing opportunities are also solid, with contracts in the 50 to 57 cents per pound area well ahead of the 40 cents peer pound new crop bids on offer in February 2023.

Meanwhile, the market on red lentils is relatively steady with year-ago levels. Current spot bids of 28 to 36 cents per pound have softened over the past month compare with pricing in the 30 to 32 cents per pound range in February 2023. For new crop red lentils, available contract opportunities are topping out at 31.5 cents per pound, only 1.5 cents above levels at the same time the previous year.

A large red lentil export program from Australia has reportedly weighed on that sector, according to a report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC).

The government agency expects total seeded lentil area in the country to be up by 8.0 per cent in 2024 compared to the previous year, at 1.60 million hectares, “due to higher projected returns compared to other crops.” With a return to average yields, lentil production in the country is forecast to rise by 32 per cent at 2.20 million tonnes.

Total Canadian lentil exports are forecast to increase to 1.80 million tonnes in 2024/25, from an

expected 1.60 million in the current marketing year. However, prices are forecast to come under pressure going forward, with the stocks-to-use ratio rising from six per cent in 2023/24 to the much more comfortable level of 15 per cent, according to AAFC.

Total lentil ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecast to rise to 310,000 tonnes, from an anticipated 100,000 tonnes for 2023/24.

––Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville said due to reduced production in India and the elimination of tariffs on lentil imports going into the country, Canadian lentils are in greater demand.

“(India) is going to be tighter on supply and green lentils are very much oriented towards that,” he said, adding that prices for pigeon peas, which are often used as a lentil substitute, are currently on the rise.

“That will be the key element that will drive the lentil market for the remainder of this marketing year and likely the dictating influence, short of Canadian production issues this summer, that will drive prices in the year ahead for new crop so far,” Jubinville added.

As of Feb. 12, high-delivered bids for Laird, Eston and Richlea lentils in the Prairies ranged from 58.5 to 76.5 cents per pound, up four to seven cents per pound from the month before and up 20.5 to 28 cents per pound from last year, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

“For new crop pricing, if green lentils are at 58, 59 cents (per pound), it’s still a pretty strong price,” he said. “Green lentils could be the most profitable crop growers can get.”

High-delivered bids for Crimson lentils ranged from 30 to 36 cents per pound, up four cents from last year but between 1.5 cents lower to two cents higher from last month.

Statistics Canada (StatCan) released its Dec. 31 grain stocks report on Feb. 8 and showed that lentil stocks in Canada totaled 1.002 million tonnes as of Dec. 31, 2023, compared to 1.441 million on the same day in 2022, a 30.5 per cent decline.

Meanwhile, dry pea stocks declined 15.6 per cent to 1.843 million tonnes and chickpeas lost 56.5 per cent of its total from one year earlier at 81,000 tonnes.

Jubinville said, according to the Canadian Drought Monitor, primary pulse-producing regions on the Prairies, such as southwestern Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta, haven’t seen much improvement from dry soil conditions over the past month.

While rains after seeding are key, lentils and peas typically grow in dry areas. For the former, it may look more attractive for growers.

“For those growers, I suspect we’ll see (lentil) acres increase,” he added.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man. 

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That lack of price movement is quite normal, according to Marcos Mosnaim, field crop trading manager for Export Packers.

“For lentils it’s not uncommon to see prices to be steady,” Mosnaim commented.

“If you look at the history, it’s not like every week there’s going to be a change in prices,” he added about lentils, noting firm prices is helpful to the industry.

“And prices are high enough,” he quipped.

Lairds were among those lentils that remained steady over the last week. Prairie Ag Hotwire listed them at 60 to 75 cents per pound delivered depending on the size, as of Feb. 5. Also holding firm were Estons at 51.5 to 66 cents/lb., as well as Richleas at 50 to 73, and Crimsons at 25 to 37.5.

The sole outlier was Eston lentils, having nudged up a penny per pound at 51.5 to 66 cents/lb. delivered.

Mosnaim stressed that lentil prices will eventually fluctuate, but that this time the amount of lentils moving in the marketplace has not been that large.

He said that could include different reasons, such as farmers hanging on to their lentils or a lack of export demand.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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That included lentils, which the Laird ones and twos topped off at 73 cents per pound, which gained one cent during December. The Laird threes and X3’s held at 63.5 cents/lb. on their high ends.

Eston lentils also remained unchanged during the holiday week. The numbers ones were at a 2023 high of 65 cents/lb. and the number twos were at 66 cents/lb., also a high for the year. The Eston threes and X3’s were steady with their upper prices a penny below their highs for the year, at 55.5 and 51.5 cents/lb. respectively.

It was pretty much the same story for the Richlea lentils, with the number ones and twos remaining at 70 cents/lb., while the X3’s stayed at its high of 60.5 cents/lb. The exception were the number threes which dipped one cent at 54.5 cents/lb.

Movement in the Crimsons was an exception, while not budging on the week, the high ends for one and twos held at 37.5 cents/lb., two and a half cents below their top end of 2023. The upper level for Crimson threes held at 29 cents/lb., but had 33.3 cents during the year. The X3’s were firm at 32 cents/lb. versus its best high of 2023 at 36.5 cents/lb.

The French number ones were firm at the low of their run in 2023, with their price range of 54.5 to 56 cents/lb. versus the year high of C$1.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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To Marcos Mosnaim of Export Packers, there were two central reasons for such sparse movement in lentils.

“On one side… I will say the lack of participation by farmers,” he said, noting those growers were holding back product.

The other factor Mosnaim cited was lacklustre demand at this time, although he said that from India was strong.

Mosnaim cautioned, however, that the situation could be different with other companies.

“Our company doesn’t see a huge demand that other companies are seeing because they go to different markets,” he said.

Otherwise, he said, the lentil market was rather “hand to mouth.”

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported No. 1 and 2 Laird lentil dipped one cent, while the No. 3s and X3s edged up by the same amount. Altogether, prices across the region were 52.5-65 cents/lb. delivered.

Eston lentils were unchanged regardless of size, with prices at 48.5-60 cents/lb.

Most of the Richleas bumped up a penny, except for the No. 1s; prices ranged from 49 to 62 cents/lb.

Crimsons were steady to lower, as its No. 1s and 2s were unchanged while No. 3s and X3s eased back by 0.3-1.5 cents/lb.

The French No. 1s were the outlier in the market, experiencing an uptick of four cents at 56-60 cents/lb.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“We went so fast up in prices that we are getting into a pause mode,” he said.

“Buyers have to accept the new prices. So whenever you increase the price too fast, you have some pauses,” he added, noting the price will either continue moving higher or it will pull back. “Nobody knows where it can go.”

Over the last month, prices have climbed higher for most lentils. As of Monday, Laird No. 1s and 2s gained two to three cents per pound at 50-53 cents/lb., according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. However, the Laird ‘s and Laird X3s lost one to two cents over the same time at 41-44 cents/lb.

Crimson lentils pushed upward as well, with No. 1s and 2s tacking on 3.5 cents at 30-35 cents/lb. The No. 3s and X3s bumped up a penny to 26-30 cents/lb.

Eston lentils added one to three cents just in the last week, at 30.5-45 cents/lb. depending on the size.

Richleas have been the exception to the recent increases; instead they gave up three cents at 35-38 cents/lb.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The pulse industry will get a better idea of what will be going into the ground over the coming weeks on April 27, when Statistics Canada releases its first survey-based planting projections for the year.

“The price signals are very positive [for lentils]. They are also very positive for canola and some of the other major crops,” she said, suggesting there’s strong competition among the crops to be planted.

Also, “the rotational bind is much tighter than it used to be.”

Last month, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) projected about 4.2 million acres of lentils to be planted in 2021, down a little bit from the estimated 4.23 million to have been seeded in 2020. However to Boersch, AAFC’s projections went the wrong way.

“The shift [upward] won’t be as big as people think,” she added.

For the coming crop year, AAFC forecast production to dip from 2.87 million tonnes of lentils in 2020-21, to 2.7 million. The department also called for exports to ease, from 2.7 million tonnes to 2.5 million, but ending stocks are to hold for both marketing years at 150,000 tonnes.

While most lentil prices on the Prairies have seen pretty good gains over the past 12 months, they have remained steady during the last week, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

Depending on the size, Laird lentils were 22-36.5 cents/lb., with Estons at 22-34 cents; Richleas, 23-35 cents; Crimsons, 23 to 30; and French greens, 28-30.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“Prices are going to keep going higher,” Darcy Barie, a commodity buyer with Verdient Foods at Vanscoy, Sask., said.

Ahead of the 2020 harvest, red lentils were around 24 cents/lb.

“They’ve sort of skyrocketed,” Barie said, quoting red lentil prices around 29-30 cents/lb. Green lentils are between 38 and 40 cents/lb.

Foreign demand has been the main driver behind prices, as countries attempt to keep their pantries stocked during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“People don’t want to run out of food, so the demand is there,” he said.

For the first two months of the 2020-21 marketing year, Canadian lentil exports total just over 436,000 tonnes, according to Statistics Canada data. That’s 12.6 per cent higher than the same period last year, when lentil exports totalled approximately 387,000 tonnes.

India has recently softened long-held tariffs on Canadian pulses, which has also been supportive of lentil prices. About 30 per cent of all Canadian lentil exports have been to India.

“Indian demand is higher compared to a few years ago,” commented Barie.

At the end of October, India announced its intention to extend its current tariff reductions until the end of 2020, paving the way for more Canadian exports.

With strong export demand levels expected to sustain, some producers have chosen to hold on to their products until prices rise further.

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Over the last month, prices for large green lentils have jumped 25 per cent because of issues with pigeon peas, said Jubinville. Green lentils can be substituted for the pigeon peas.

“That crop is grown during the summer and that got off to a dry start,” he said. “The monsoons came late and now into the harvest season, the monsoon rains aren’t stopping.”

Just in the last few weeks, prices for large green lentils rose from 19-20 cents/lb. to 24-25 cents. “Once India starts buying, other buyers take note,” Jubinville said.

However, he saw any further upside to large green lentils being limited at the moment as the crop from the Black Sea region, especially Russia, is about to enter the global market.

The current situation in the Middle East, particularly with Turkey having invaded northern Syria, is cause for concern. Geopolitical uncertainty in the region, which consumes large amounts of lentils, could limit any further gains, he said.

Also, the Canadian harvest has been a difficult one this year with cold, wet conditions causing delays. In turn, that’s created concerns over the quality of Canadian-grown lentils, Jubinville said, noting later in the year there could be more upward movement.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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Red lentil prices began to rise about two to three weeks ago, he said, as shipments were made to India with the exporter increasing the price.

“I would love to see a firm demand. The demand is not big. It’s more of a spot demand. So the same way prices went up, they may come down, once that demand is filled,” he said.

Also, he noted there have been cheaper prices in the Black Sea region, which could affect prices in Canada. He said it’s best to see what happens over the next little while.

Presently, red lentils were 19 cents/lb. with large green lentils at 21 cents/lb., he quoted.

India has been moving the market when it comes to green lentils, Mosnaim said. Whenever the price of pigeon peas has increased too much, the Indian market has switched to less expensive green lentils.

Traders expect green lentil prices to increase further, he said, as farmer selling in Canada has been moderate at best.

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) having won a majority in India’s recent federal election, Mosnaim said it’s currently too early to say if the BJP will lower or remove import duties on pulse imports.

The BJP on Thursday scored 303 of the 545 seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s equivalent of Canada’s House of Commons. Along with the BJP’s partners in the National Democratic Alliance, Modi controls 365 seats.

Well prior to the election, the BJP imposed the duties as it gave the party the support of farmers and rural voters, who make up about half of the India’s electorate.

“The Modi government is much stronger now,” Mosnaim said.

— Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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