To Marcos Mosnaim of Export Packers, there were two central reasons for such sparse movement in lentils.

“On one side… I will say the lack of participation by farmers,” he said, noting those growers were holding back product.

The other factor Mosnaim cited was lacklustre demand at this time, although he said that from India was strong.

Mosnaim cautioned, however, that the situation could be different with other companies.

“Our company doesn’t see a huge demand that other companies are seeing because they go to different markets,” he said.

Otherwise, he said, the lentil market was rather “hand to mouth.”

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported No. 1 and 2 Laird lentil dipped one cent, while the No. 3s and X3s edged up by the same amount. Altogether, prices across the region were 52.5-65 cents/lb. delivered.

Eston lentils were unchanged regardless of size, with prices at 48.5-60 cents/lb.

Most of the Richleas bumped up a penny, except for the No. 1s; prices ranged from 49 to 62 cents/lb.

Crimsons were steady to lower, as its No. 1s and 2s were unchanged while No. 3s and X3s eased back by 0.3-1.5 cents/lb.

The French No. 1s were the outlier in the market, experiencing an uptick of four cents at 56-60 cents/lb.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“We went so fast up in prices that we are getting into a pause mode,” he said.

“Buyers have to accept the new prices. So whenever you increase the price too fast, you have some pauses,” he added, noting the price will either continue moving higher or it will pull back. “Nobody knows where it can go.”

Over the last month, prices have climbed higher for most lentils. As of Monday, Laird No. 1s and 2s gained two to three cents per pound at 50-53 cents/lb., according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. However, the Laird ‘s and Laird X3s lost one to two cents over the same time at 41-44 cents/lb.

Crimson lentils pushed upward as well, with No. 1s and 2s tacking on 3.5 cents at 30-35 cents/lb. The No. 3s and X3s bumped up a penny to 26-30 cents/lb.

Eston lentils added one to three cents just in the last week, at 30.5-45 cents/lb. depending on the size.

Richleas have been the exception to the recent increases; instead they gave up three cents at 35-38 cents/lb.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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However, MarketsFarm Pro senior analyst Mike Jubinville said the lentil crop likely fared a bit better than cereals or oilseeds.

Earlier this year, Statistics Canada projected lentil production to come at about 2.75 million tonnes. Jubinville estimated about 2.3 million tonnes will be harvested and pegged Canada’s total supply at 2.5 million to 2.6 million tonnes.

“This means somebody has got to go without,” he said, noting prices have swung quite higher over the last few weeks as the market took notice of the shortages.

Jubinville pointed out Turkey, another lentil producer, is suffering from dry conditions that have impeded its crop. India slashing its import levies from 33 per cent to 10 per cent has also added fuel to the fire for lentil prices to swing higher.

“India is still the 800-pound gorilla in the lentil market. Once they make a move like that and signal they’re going to be buying, you have this domino effect among import players,” he explained.

Over the last month, Laird lentils have climbed 14-26 cents/lb., depending on the size, with prices ranging from 36 to 61 cents/lb., according to Prairie Ag Hotwire from Monday.

Similarly, Eston lentils gained 10-11 cents to reach 31.5 to 48 cents/lb. Richleas rose 11-17 cents, at 33 to 51 cents/lb. and crimsons swung higher by nine to 19 cents, also at 33 to 51 cents/lb.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“It’s a kind of an interesting scenario, where you see farmers not selling and prices to farmers keep going up and up. The trade cannot cover their positions selling at lower prices. Destination markets are not in desperation mode to buy products,” Mosnaim said, noting the latter is only buying “hand to mouth, with no rush to buy more.”

He couldn’t place a finger on one particular reason, but believes it’s a combination of factors, including the global COVID-19 pandemic.

He suggested the pandemic has resulted in people in less fortunate countries having only enough money to buy the cheapest food they can find — and that transportation costs have risen to the point where customers have turned to buying local.

“It looks like a lot of markets bought a lot of products last year. The sales have not been as strong as they were expecting,” Mosnaim said.

“Why would you fill your warehouse with $1,000 lentils when a year ago you were paying $700 or $800?”

The true picture of what has been happening this year will come out eventually, he said. “In our industry, the beauty is every year is different, and we only know the reason why when it’s too late.”

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

Table: Current lentil price ranges, in Canadian cents per pound. Source: Prairie Ag Hotwire.

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“[Lentil prices] are just softer than what they were. There’s no fire in the lentil belly, that’s for sure,” Allan Johnston, president of Johnston’s Grain at Welwyn, Sask., said.

However, producers are demanding more money for their green and red lentils, he said.

“Guys are being very bullish. They want 40 cents [per pound] for their greens, 30 cents on their reds. It’s not been happening.”

Prairie Ag Hotwire cited prices for Laird lentils between 23 and 38 cents/lb. delivered as of Monday. Estons were fetching 22-34 cents/lb., Richleas 23-35, Crimsons 23-30 and French greens 26-28.

Nevertheless, Johnston said prices are good and continue to be for pulses, as well as grains and oilseeds. The big factor on the Prairies for all crops this spring is moisture.

“We just need three to four inches of rain,” he said.

At this point, Johnston stressed it’s very unlikely producers would be changing their seeding intentions for lentils, by either adding more or reducing their amounts.

“Guys make up their minds in the winter. They get their seed prepared. It’s very hard to change. You just don’t change on a dime, there are too many decisions to make and too many factors.”

The most recent estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) called for 4.2 million acres of lentils to be seeded in 2021, down a pinch from the previous year.

However, AAFC estimated production to decline from 2.87 million tonnes in 2020-21 to 2.7 million in 2021-22.

Statistics Canada is scheduled to release its next set of estimates at the end of this month.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“There’s a huge demand on everything right now. The lentil market is strong just like the yellow peas,” Allan Johnston, president of Johnston Grains at Welwyn, Sask., said.

“The whole world is buying grain and [the market is] just on fire.”

Prices for Laird lentils have jumped two to three cents/lb. over the last month, ranging from 19 to 38 cents/lb., according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

Richleas have seen increases of a half cent to a nickel, at 19-31 cents/lb.

Crimsons have gained one to five cents, at 19-30 cents/lb.

Estons, meanwhile have been rather steady of late, except for No. 1’s, which have bumped up a nickel at 18-33 cents/lb.

February’s supply and demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada were also a factor in lentil prices, as they projected lower ending stocks for the crop, going from 209,000 tonnes in 2019-20 down to 150,000 tonnes in 2020-21 and again in 2021-22.

That estimate would bring lentils’ stocks-to-use ratio from seven per cent to five per cent for the current marketing year, as well as the next.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“The market is not very friendly,” Johnston said, noting dry pea prices have receded as well.

“Lentil prices are still pretty good. People were getting used to them being higher and going higher,” he added.

Johnston chalked it up to the usual lull the market hits come December. “This can turn around and come back in the New Year.”

Johnston Grains posted red lentils from 25 to 28 cents/lb. depending on size, f.o.b. for November-December. Large greens were 35-37 cents/lb, mediums at 21-30 cents/lb. and smalls at 28-29 cents/lb. Feed lentils, red and green, were 18-20 cents/lb.

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported Laird lentils were steady to down one cent on the week, depending on the size, as of Monday. They ranged from 23.5 to 38 cents/lb. delivered.

Eston lentils were mostly steady, but some lost two cents, with prices at 20-30 cents/lb. depending on the size.

Richleas were on the same boat, seeing their prices remain firm to slipping back a couple of pennies. They ranged from 20 to 32 cents/lb.

Crimsons echoed that trend, holding steady to losing two cents, at 21-30 cents/lb.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“The summer exports were unusually good and are going fairly well right now,” said Marlene Boersch of Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc. in Winnipeg.

“People are realizing overall green lentil supplies, primarily in the United States and Canada, are tight,” she said. “People are moving to secure their supplies.”

Added to that, farmers are not ready sellers at this time, having sold large amounts during the summer, along with their wheat and canola, according to Boersch.

“They can hold as the market still had momentum.”

Laird lentil prices were at 31-36 cents/lb. delivered for No. 1s, rising six cents over the last month, Prairie Ag Hotwire reported. No. 2s were 30-36 cents/lb., increasing seven cents, while X3s gained 12 cents, at 25-33 cents/lb. However, over the last week, prices were steady to rising a couple of cents.

Richlea lentils rose by five cents over the month to be positioned at 24-28 cents/lb. for No. 1s. No. 2s were up a couple of cents, to 22.5-24 cents, and X3s gained three cents, to 19-22 cents.

As for green Estons, they rose by a lesser amount. No. 1s garnered five cents, at 24-29 cents/lb. delivered; No. 2s were up two cents at 22.5-24 cents and X3s nudged up a penny to 19-20 cents.

Meanwhile, French green lentils bumped up only a penny, to 21-24 cents/lb.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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However, to Marcos Mosnaim of Globeways Canada Inc. at Mississauga, Ont. there’s more to the recent declines.

“We are feeling pressure from other origins. As United States green lentils are selling much cheaper than Canadian and some Russian lentils are also hitting the market at lower levels,” Mosnaim said via email.

Over the last month, prices for Laird large green lentils have been steady to slightly lower, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. The No. 1 Lairds slipped by one cent to 28 to 32 cents per pound delivered, while No. 2s held at 26-32 cents/lb. No. 3s remained firm at 18-21 cents/lb.

The medium Richlea lentils saw little movement over the last month, with No. 1s dropping two cents at 20 to 25 cents/lb. No. 2s and 3s held steady at 20-24 and 16-19 cents/lb. respectively.

As for the small-sized Eston green lentils the No. 1s were down two cents on the month at 24-28 cents/lb. delivered. Eston No. 2s were firm at 23-26 cents, and No. 3s gained a penny to 16-19 cents/lb.

Meanwhile, French green lentils were steady at 20-22 cents/lb.

Red crimson lentils saw greater movement during the month with prices dropping five cents each for No. 1s and 2s at 23.5-26 cents/lb. No. 3s lost a penny to 17-18 cents/lb.

With the harvest, Mosnaim said he expects this year’s crop to be large than last year’s, but ending stocks should be smaller.

“Now we have to wait and see the quality and yields,” he said.

Statistics Canada estimated more than 4.23 million acres of lentils were planted in 2020. That’s an increase of almost 12 per cent compared to the acres in 2019; that year, about 2.17 million tonnes of lentils were produced.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has estimated 2.15 million tonnes of lentils to be produced in 2020.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“I think the impact and extension of the impact of the Indian import tariffs permeates through the pulse complex,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada in Winnipeg. “They’re (India) also in the midst of harvesting their main pulse crop right now so there is no sense you have to be an aggressive buyer.”

Statistics Canada is set to release its acreage estimates Friday and there are widespread expectations plantings in Saskatchewan and Alberta will be lower.

In a survey of analysts by MarketsFarm, estimates for lentils came in at three million to 3.9 million acres, down from last year’s figure of 4.4 million, when Saskatchewan farmers planted 3.9 million and Alberta farmers chipped in with 485,000.

According to Jubinville, part of the reason is that buyers don’t want to get caught holding inventory, prompting them to shy away from large purchases. Sellers, meanwhile, don’t want to miss out on a bounce in the futures.

“I just don’t see this marketplace doing anything more than small hand-to-mouth marketing needs from a buyer’s perspective,” he said.

According to the Prairie Ag Hotwire, Laird No. 1 Lentils fell eight cents this week to between 26 to 28 cents per pound. Red lentils are holding firm at 16-17 cents a pound. Jubinville pegged large green lentils in the 25-cent range.

“I think lentils, particularly red ones, could take one to two years to really climb,” said Jubinville.

Going forward, farmers can always store their crops for future sales when the price moves higher. But, according to Jubinville, that could be a problem if the Chinese tariffs last a lot longer.

“You start to get towards July, August and the next harvest; how much storage do you have for the new crop to come in?” he said.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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