Ontario wheat prices reached 52-week highs as the market incorporates a risk premium due to the uncertainty in production. Statistics Canada said Ontario farmers plan to increase corn acres by 5.4 per cent this spring; soybean acres will be similar to last year.

The world is no longer comfortable with past stock levels of grains and oilseeds. The ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and China’s heightened frustration over Taiwan have major importers increasing stocks for food security.

Quick look:

Soybeans: Ending stocks have been at historic lows in Ontario.

Corn: Ethanol plant bids have hit three-year highs.

Wheat: Ontario winter wheat planting in 2025 was down versus the previous year.

Soybeans

Ontario farmers plan to seed 2.9 million acres of soybeans this spring, unchanged from last year, according to Statistics Canada. Using an average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre, production has the potential to come in at four million tonnes, up from the 2025 output of 3.6 million tonnes. The year-over-year increase in production comes on the heels of historically low ending stocks in Ontario.

Commercial stocks in Ontario are declining, and the market will function to encourage imports moving forward. Bids from the domestic crusher in Ontario need to be $0.50-0.75 per bushel to higher to attract supplies from south of the border. Domestic crush margins are at three-year highs, so there is breathing room for stronger cash bids.

On the world market, Brazil’s soybean harvest progress has moved past the halfway mark. Argentine farmers will begin harvest in the latter half of March and move into high gear during April. Brazilian soybean offers in export position are US$50 per tonne discount to U.S. origin.

U.S. farmers are expected to increase soybean acres by four to five per cent this spring, according to the USDA. That increase may have influenced Ontario farmers rotational plans.

Soybean futures reached 18-month highs during the first week of March. While the futures markets surged, basis levels deteriorated. This was largely fund buying. As of March 10, we estimated that the non-commercial position in the soybean futures was near 250,000 contracts, which is a historical high. When the speculative trade is this large, the market tends to decrease.

This week, we’re advising farmers to increase sales by 10 per cent, bringing total sales to 80 per cent for the 2025 production. We’ll save the final 20 per cent increment until the upcoming crop is more certain. When we see Canadian imports from south of the border increase, this will be the top in the Ontario soybean market.

Corn

Ontario farmers plan to plant 2.3 million acres of corn this spring, Statistics Canada estimated. This is up from 2.2 million in 2025. Using a traditional abandonment rate and an average yield of 174.2 bushels per acre, production has potential to reach 10 million tonnes, up from the 2025 crop of 9.5 million tonnes. The higher corn acres come at the expense of lower canola and spring wheat acres. Farmers are clearly responding to market signals.

Bids from ethanol processors are reaching three-year highs. Buying interest from feedlots and elevators sourcing for the export market have not increased to the same extent. To reiterate from our previous issue, Ontario corn ending stocks are expected to drop to historical lows at the end of the 2025-26 crop year. The market is functioning to ration demand by trading at a premium to the world market.

Canadian crop year-to-date corn exports for the week ending March 1 were 398,100 tonnes, down from last year’s number of 1.2 million tonnes. Northern European feed grain markets continue to be saturated with domestic wheat supplies.

Despite the rally in the corn futures market, export offers have only risen by US$2-4 per tonne. U.S. corn FOB the Gulf was quoted at US$225 per tonne while Brazilian corn was valued at US$226 per tonne FOB Paranagua.

The seeding of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is moving into the final stages. Total Brazilian corn production is expected to finish in the range of 130 million-132 million tonnes, down from the 2025 output of 136 million tonnes. Conditions are favourable in Brazil, but we’re still expecting drier conditions to develop due to ‘La Nina’. Argentine farmers have started harvesting their record corn crop, which is expected to reach 53 million tonnes, up from last year’s output of 50 million tonnes.

U.S. farmers are expected to seed 94 million acres of corn this spring, down from 98.8 million last year. Missouri, Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana are experiencing drier conditions heading into the spring seeding period. This is favourable for seeding, but timely rains will be needed or the corn market is moving significantly higher. The world cannot afford a problem with the U.S. corn crop.

This week, we’re advising farmers to increase sales by 10 per cent bringing total sales to 80 per cent for the 2025 production.

Wheat

Ontario farmers planted 1.12 million acres of winter wheat last fall, down 64,000 acres from the fall of 2024. We continue to project an Ontario winter wheat crop of 2.5 million tonnes, compared to last year’s output of 2.9 million tonnes.

Ontario farmers are only expected to plant 43,000 acres of spring wheat versus 62,800 acres last year. This is a modern-day historical low.

U.S. hard red winter wheat was offered at US$281 per tonne FOB the Gulf on Friday, while U.S. soft red winter was quoted at US$263 per tonne. French soft wheat was offered at US$245 per tonne FOB Rouen. Russian 12.5 per cent protein was quoted at US$250 per tonne FOB the Black Sea. Ontario soft red winter was quoted at US$265 per tonne FOB St Lawrence port.

Conditions in Russia have improved over the past month, and the crop will come out of dormancy in fair condition. We’re factoring in a minor year-over-year decrease in Russian and Ukrainian wheat production. The ongoing war will be a significant factor determining export potential.

In Europe, the winter wheat crop in the northern regions has come out of dormancy earlier than normal due to warmer temperatures. Conditions are drier in parts of Germany, Poland, Hungary and Czechia. European wheat production will be down from last year, but it’s hard to put a number on the crop size at this time.

The winter wheat crop in the U.S. southern Plains needs rain. There are major concerns in Oklahoma, Texas and southern regions of Kansas. If the seasonal April rains do not materialize, there is a serious problem with the hard red winter wheat.

This week, we’re advising farmers to sell 20 per cent bringing total wheat sales to 80-90 per cent. We need to be selling into this recent strength. The U.S. winter wheat crop will be down from last year, but once harvest begins the market will come under pressure.

The post Ontario farmers to plant more corn in 2026 appeared first on Farmtario.

On April 1, profit-taking took May canola down C$13.30/tonne to close at C$718.50. However, it has still remained between C$710 to C$740 since March 24.

Phil Speiss from RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg said while canola prices have been in a bullish trend line over the past few months, fundamentals are leaning bearish due to large stocks and high acreage expectations this year.

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

A canola contract closing below its 20-day average in two straight sessions is an indicator of a downturn, he added.

“That’s step one. Get a close below the trend line,” Speiss said. “If you can get (two closes below), well now you start talking maybe there’s a potential downside. You look at targets from previous days. On (March 23), we saw a low of C$708.70/tonne and (the week) before that, we saw C$700.60. Those would become targets on the downside.”

Canola prices are largely tied to crude oil and especially to Chicago soyoil, but Speiss said diesel and heating oil markets are also influencing the oilseed.

“(Heating oil) is the most firm out of the energy markets,” he said. “There is a connection there on the bio side of things … If you look at a heating oil chart, it’s going straight up. If you’re playing biofuel and you’re a speculator or large managed money and you see that play, you’re just feeding into that canola length.”

Canola crush margins are also remarkably strong with the May contract at C$333.64/tonne as of March 31, more than double from a year earlier (C$165.31). However, Speiss noted that margins are sure to come down soon.

“It’s parabolic,” he said. “We know the crush pace is the crush pace. We know that they’re full through summer. At some point, it’s just a number. From a futures perspective, we see crush demand getting pushed further and further out the curve: November, January 2027, March 2027 … (Crush margins) don’t play too much of a role anymore.”

As for where canola prices could go in the near future, Speiss said they’re as uncertain as the war itself.

“We’re so tied to the geopoliticals right now, it’s an impossibility,” he said. “If you want to bet on anything, the trend just stays intact until you break it.”

The post ICE Weekly: Trade waits for canola to break out appeared first on Farmtario.

The USDA releases its prospective plantings report on March 31, providing the first survey-based estimates on the upcoming U.S. growing season.

The trade sentiment ahead of the report is for a three-to-five-million-acre reduction in corn area from the 98.8 million acres grown in 2025 and a similarly sized increase in soybeans from the 81.2 million acres grown last year. Rising fertilizer costs due to the war could see even more area shift to soybeans.

Soybean/corn ratio

The soybean/corn ratio is calculated by dividing the soybean futures price by the corn futures price, with a number above 2.5 historically seen as favouring planting soybeans and a ratio below that tipping the scales to corn.

With May soybeans settling at US$11.7175 and corn at US$4.6725 on March 25, the ratio works out to 2.51 — slightly favouring soybeans.

However, the localized cash bid ratios across the countryside are more varied. Looking at a sampling of elevators in Illinois and Iowa the local soybean/corn ratios range from 2.35 to 2.65, meaning seeding corn looks more favourable in some areas and soybeans in others.

The high fertilizer costs and other metrics are also not caught in the ratio, which should keep speculation on the annual fight for acres at the forefront of the trade in the coming weeks.

Charts

May corn has traded in a range of US$4.40 to US$4.76 per bushel since the Middle East war started on Feb. 28. Fund traders added to the bullish bets, to sit on their largest net long in corn since February 2025 at about 230,000 contracts. The trend is still higher in corn, as that market looks to keep too many acres from flipping to soybeans.

May soybeans settled at US$11.7075 per bushel on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran and hit a session high of US$12.3875 per bushel two weeks later. However, the contract was right back where it started by March 25.

The post CBOT weekly outlook: Soybeans/corn awaiting acreage data appeared first on Farmtario.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 110,658 contracts as of March 17 (135,694 long/25,036 short), up by about 18,000 contracts on the week due to a combination of short covering and new longs going on the books. That marked the largest net long position since July 2025.

Total open interest in canola futures increased to 364,317 contracts from 352,531 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders reduced their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 16,000 contracts, with the net long dipping to about 195,200 contracts. That was the first contraction after six previous weeks of increases.

The net short position in corn came in at about 230,800 contracts on March 17, up by 32,000 contracts on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 11,900 contracts — down by about 10,000 contracts from the previous week.

Hard red winter wheat posted a net long of about 11,300 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, the managed money net long position came in at about 15,300 contracts.

The post Speculators add to bullish bets in canola appeared first on Farmtario.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 26,844 contracts as of Feb. 24 (71,072 long/44,228 short), up by about 21,000 contracts on the week due to a combination of short covering and new bullish bets going on the books. That marked the largest net long position since August 2025.

Total open interest in canola futures dipped to 296,019 contracts from 305,730 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders grew their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 12,000 contracts, with the net long rising to about 171,400 contracts.

The net short position in corn came in at about 13,200 contracts on Feb. 24, down by 30,000 contracts on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 17,800 contracts — down by about 52,000 contracts from the previous week as bullish chart signals had speculators covering short positions and putting on new longs.

Hard red winter wheat moved from a net short of about 11,100 to a net long of 6,300 contracts. That marked the first net long fund position for the market in two-and-a-half years. In MIAX spring wheat, the managed money net short position was cut from about 18,700 contracts to 9,800.

The post Speculative net long position grows in canola appeared first on Farmtario.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 7,663 contracts as of Feb. 17 (59,074 long/51,409 short). That compares with the previous week when the speculative position was evenly balanced, as managed money traders put on more fresh longs than shorts during the week. The net fund position was last in positive territory in September 2025.

Total open interest in canola futures increased to 305,730 contracts, from 247,124 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders grew their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 43,000 contracts, with the net long rising to just under 159,000 contracts.

The net short position in corn came in at about 42,300 contracts on Feb. 17, down by 15,200 contracts on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 69,600 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 11,100 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 18,700 contracts as of Feb. 17.

The post Funds move to net long in canola appeared first on Farmtario.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 42,379 contracts as of Feb. 3 (40,584 long/82,963 short). That was down by about 10,000 contracts from the previous week on a combination of short covering and new longs going on the books. It marks the smallest net short in canola in two months.

Total open interest in canola futures increased to 296,432 contracts, from 254,979 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders grew their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 10,000 contracts, with the net long rising to just over 29,000 contracts from about 19,800 the previous week.

The net short position in corn came in at about 80,600 contracts on Feb. 3, holding relatively steady on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 81,500 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 7,800 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 20,800 contracts as of Feb. 3.

The post Funds exiting short positions in canola appeared first on Farmtario.

Corn and wheat futures held near unchanged.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture this week confirmed that China bought more than 1.5 million tonnes of American soybeans. Traders said they had largely expected deals of that size before the USDA reported them, and they had factored China’s buying into the market already.

“They buy, and it’s already behind us,” said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities in Iowa.

The January soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was 2-1/2 cents higher at $11.25 a bushel at the close. That was down from Tuesday’s peak of $11.69-1/2, the highest since June 2024.

China’s soybean purchases remain far off the 12 million tonnes that U.S. officials said it promised to buy by year-end. The U.S. also faces tough competition for global export sales from cheaper soybeans in Brazil, analysts said.

Some traders said China could bear the cost of making larger purchases of U.S. soybeans in order to preserve the trade truce agreed with Washington in late October but expected the market to remain cautious until volumes are confirmed.

“We wouldn’t be surprised if Chinese purchases from the U.S. are closer to a trickle than a flood,” said Rod Baker, an analyst at Bendigo Agribusiness Insights.

The USDA reported on Thursday that China also bought 132,000 tonnes of U.S. white wheat. The deal failed to spark a strong rally in CBOT wheat futures as global supplies were plentiful, traders said.

CBOT March wheat was down one cent at $5.39 a bushel, while March corn futures dipped 1/4 cent to $4.37-1/2 a bushel.

— Reporting by Tom Polansek, Peter Hobson and Gus Trompiz

The post U.S. grains: Soybeans mixed on doubts over Chinese demand appeared first on Farmtario.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

Reporting was halted during the 43-day shutdown that began Oct. 1, and backdated reports will be released twice a week over the next two months until the data is current by late January.

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 13,741 contracts as of Sept. 30 (47,649 long/61,400 short). That was up by about 9,000 contracts from the previous week and marks the largest net short in canola since April.

Canola futures trended steadily higher during the data blackout — a sign that the speculative money moved back to the long side in the oilseed.

Fund traders were also short soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade ahead of the government shutdown. The net short of about 31,600 contracts in soybeans as of Sept. 30 was the largest short position since early August. Soybean futures also moved higher since late September.

The net short position in corn came in at about 129,300 contracts on Sept. 30.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 96,200 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 54,100 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 26,200 contracts as of Sept. 30.

The post Funds held large net short in canola before U.S. shutdown appeared first on Farmtario.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported wheat exports for the week ended Oct. 12 at 710,500 tonnes, well ahead of the 420,900 tonnes shipped the previous week. So far this marketing year, 4.282 million tonnes of wheat were shipped for export, a new record for this time of year, compared to 3.749 million the year before.

The CGC also reported that 80 per cent of its CWRS samples were in the top grade, while another 18 per cent were graded No. 2. However, the Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) crop saw 22 per cent making the top grade, 27 per cent at No. 2 and 37 per cent at No. 3.

CWRS wheat was down C$2.10 to up C$4.90 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$239.60/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$266.10 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$37.70 to C$64.20/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7118), CWRS bids were from US$170.50 to US$189.40/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$12.50 to US$31.40 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$8.90 to C$22.30 below the futures.

Meanwhile, CPRS prices were up C$3.50 to C$6.10 per tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$216.30 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$240.10 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for CWAD were unchanged to up C$0.70 per tonne with bids between C$277.40 in northwest Saskatchewan to C$291.90 in western Manitoba.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$5.4950 per bushel on Oct. 16, down 7.5 cents.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The December contract was down one cent at US$4.8875/bu.

The December Chicago soft red contract lost four cents at US$5.0250/bu.

The Canadian dollar declined one-quarter of a cent to close at 71.18 U.S. cents on Oct. 16.

The post Prairie Wheat Weekly: Most Western Canadian bids higher appeared first on Farmtario.