At 12:01 a.m. on Aug. 22, both railways failed to reach an agreement with more than 9,300 workers represented by the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference. For the first time ever, traffic at both CN Rail and CPKC is halted simultaneously.

Jared Seitz, general manager of Giddyupp Grain Brokers in Spruce Grove, Alta., said sales opportunities which would normally present themselves at this time of year have been put on hold. The rail shutdown will likely drag down feed grain prices on top of harvest pressure.

“You would expect prices to be spiking, but the market just pauses for now and a lot of things will hold flat,” Seitz said. “It feels like we’re nearing the bottom and the rail strike isn’t helping anything at the moment.”

He added that even if the work stoppage only lasts one or two days, more grain buyers will rely on the cash market.
“I think everyone thinks this will be a short-term thing and that’s the expectation. But the long-term effect surely will add to everything getting more expensive,” Seitz explained. “The buyers are hesitant to do anything. Sellers are hesitant. It’s creating a strange market dynamic I haven’t seen in quite some time.

“What we’re suggesting farmers do is try to deal with their lowest quality crops first, because there does seem to be a lot of light grain … We are seeing some feedlots that are extending their discount schedule so it includes lighter grain, but we’re hearing barley at (a test weight of) 38 to 42 pounds across a large swath of Alberta. So it’s going to take some big changes from everyone who has their machinery set up for 48 lb. barley to handle all of that.”

Delivered feed barley prices in Alberta as of Aug. 21 ranged from C$4.07 to C$5.70 per bushel, with the latter down seven cents from the previous week, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. In Saskatchewan, the range was C$4.14 to C$4.50/bu., down 25 cents, while in Manitoba, prices were steady at C$4.34 to C$4.50/bu.

For feed wheat, delivered prices in Alberta were from C$5.81 to C$7.76/bu. with the high price down 24 cents from the week before. In Saskatchewan, a price of C$6.75/bu. was reported, steady from the previous week, while C$6.29/bu. was reported in Manitoba, down 13 cents.

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[Feed wheat] has been so expensive for so long,” Haley commented, noting buyers wanting to acquire larger amounts are few and far in between.

“If they can’t get any volume, they’re not messing with it,” he added.

Haley said those who have been purchasing feed wheat have been some feed mills and a few pork producers, and not the cattle feeders.

He cited feed wheat prices of C$265 to C$270 per tonne delivered to Lethbridge on Aug. 13.

“Until there’s an offer of any magnitude of tonnage…you’re not going to see a lot of demand,” Haley said.

Feed barley prices also slipped back over the last week as well, he noted, pointing out that it needs to remain C$10 to $15/tonne cheaper than corn.

Haley said feed barley for delivery next month was C$255/tonne, down C$10 from the previous week. That for January-February-March delivery was going for C$275/tonne, easing back C$5 from last week.

“The barley market might weaken up a little bit more in September and stay that way to stay in in the ration,” Haley cautioned.

The main reason being that it’s relatively easy to import corn from the United States. Also, projections have called for a large U.S. corn crop this year, with good supplies available.

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New crop barley is starting to become available, although end users were not showing much interest in the newly harvested supplies, according to Travis Ebens of CorNine Commodities in Lacombe, Alta. He expected values would remain under pressure through the harvest period.

Recent heat and dryness contributed to the early development, with anecdotal reports pointing to ok yields but lighter bushel weights, according to Ebens.

In addition to the seasonal harvest pressure, ongoing weakness in the United States corn market was another bearish influence on North American feed markets. December corn settled below US$4.00 per bushel on Aug. 8, with values at their weakest levels since 2020.

Feed barley bids in southern Alberta are also at their lowest levels in four years, according to government data, with barley trading into Lethbridge at about C$265 to C$266 per tonne in the latest provincial report.

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Glen Loyns, trader and general manager for JGL Commodities in Moose Jaw, Sask., said while the recent heat and dryness has reduced yield expectations, prospects of a decent harvest are still putting pressure on prices.

“It appears that there’s probably going to be an average crop. So that’s putting pressure on some prices. Especially in the United States where you’re seeing pretty favourable growing conditions for both corn and beans,” Loyns said.

However, the warmer and drier-than-normal conditions are now starting to have a real effect on crops.

“The heat is affecting it and it’s running out of moisture. It’s going to be not as good as everyone was expecting a month ago,” Loyns added.

Despite lower corn and wheat prices in the U.S., there isn’t much in the way of grain shipments into Saskatchewan according to Loyns. He added that the feed grain market will wait and see before prices make their move.

“It’s going to be volatile until we get a very good picture of the quality and quantity (of feed grains),” Loyns said.

Delivered feed barley prices in Saskatchewan ranged from C$4.30 to C$4.75 per bushel as of July 31, with the latter steady from last week, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. In Alberta, prices ranged from C$4.15 to C$5.88/bu., down 11 cents from the week before. In Manitoba, prices were C$4.50 to C$4.51/bu., down one cent from the previous week.

For delivered feed wheat, the price range in Saskatchewan was C$6.60 to C$7.75/bu., while in Alberta, prices were from C$6.49 to C$8.16/bu. The maximum prices from both provinces were unchanged from the previous week. In Manitoba, feed wheat was at C$6.79/bu., up two cents.

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“It’s very odd we are not seeing the reflection in the [feed] market,” stated Susanne Leclerc of Market Master Ltd. in Edmonton.

“Canola is having some positive days, and we are seeing that reflected into the canola market. But feed grains have yet to see that priced into the market,” she lamented.

One of the main reasons for stronger prices Leclerc pointed out is the Prairie weather, with a hike in daily temperatures. Highs were forecast to surpass 30 degrees Celsius across much of the region with scatter thunderstorms at best for precipitation.

She explained that grain buyers placed their focus on cheaper corn in the United States and the prospects there for a very good harvest, while suggesting there might soon be change in feed prices.

“It will be interesting to see come another week or two any of those markets ‘appreciate’ the weather,” Leclerc commented.

Leclerc said Market Master is paying five dollars per bushel for old crop feed barley picked up in the yard in the Edmonton area, with new crop prices 10 to 15 cents/bu. higher. In the Red Deer, area she said barley was C$5.20/bu. for old crop and C$5.30 for new crop.

As for feed wheat, she had only an old crop price of C$7.50/bu., noting that buyers are waiting to see how this year’s wheat turns out.

When it comes to corn imported from the United States, Leclerc said the amount had tapered off a fair bit, but more purchases were now being made. She expects volumes to pick up again, but they won’t be as much as when Prairie barley and wheat were scarce.

Moving grain by truck continued to be something an issue in Alberta, Leclerc noted, but business has been lax. Once the busy season starts towards the end of July, she said there will very likely be problems with availability of drivers and trucks.

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“Everything is dropping. You’ve got big crops across the board all through Western Canada. Plenty of rain with some areas with slightly too much rain,” commented Glen Loyns of JGL Commodities in Moose Jaw.

“There’s going to be a lot of grain,” he stated.

That’s coming despite less barley being planted in Canada this year. Statistics Canada issued its planted acre estimates on June 27, showing the country’s barley area at just under 6.39 million acres compared to the 7.32 million seeded last year.

Although Loyns is optimistic, he cautioned that it’s still early to be sure as to how good the crop could be, and a lot could happen between now and harvest.

“If we keep going at this rate, your yields are going to offset the shortfall we have in seeded acreage,” he said, noting should that big crop materialize, that could result in a lot less corn being imported from the United States.

“Unless the corn yields in the U.S. fall so much and the price falls, it’s going to be a competitive ingredient into this market. Right now, it looks like probably not,” Loyns explained that at this point, the U.S. is in line for its own large corn harvest.

Feed barley prices were down in the Prairie provinces, with Saskatchewan incurring the largest decline at 25 cents per bushel. Prices ranged from C$4.77 to C$5.50/bushel according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

Prices in Alberta stepped back 11 cents at C$4.59 to C$6.21/bu. while in Manitoba those dipped three cents at C$4.95 to C$5.00.

Feed wheat prices fell further, with Alberta seeing a 54-cent drop at C$6.60 to C$8.84/bu. In Saskatchewan prices lost 25 cents at C$6.60 to C$8.25 and in Manitoba they were down eight cents at C$7.41.

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Susanne Leclerc, owner of Market Master Ltd. in Edmonton, said moisture levels in Alberta are not distributed evenly with the north seeing plenty of rain and the south becoming drier. A recent cold snap between Calgary and Edmonton plunged lows to around the freezing mark earlier this week, while snow fell over parts of the Foothills.

“You have some areas that have ideal growing conditions, but they don’t have the heat. (Crops) are growing slower than usual at this time of year,” Leclerc added. “There was some frost reported in Alberta and Saskatchewan this week, which is crazy for the middle of June. So it will be interesting to see how everyone survives this cold snap.”

Despite the weather scare, most crops are still expected to be good to excellent. As a result, some prices are declining.

“Barley has come down about 30 cents per bushel over the past two weeks, just based on the fact that everyone’s seeing a crop coming and grazing conditions are better,” Leclerc said. “Feed wheat has dropped off about the same and more in some cases, depending on what you can find.”

She added that while it’s unsure of the grain bought by feedlots, there are still plenty of deliveries coming in. With Eastern Canada in a heat wave with temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius and Western Canada is an ongoing cooler weather pattern, Leclerc said it’s anyone’s guess how the market will react.

“I think it’s a wait-and-see game on this one,” she said.

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Matt Beusekom of Market Place Commodities in Lethbridge, Alta.  said the Prairies have seen copious amounts of precipitation over the past month, with the exception of the Peace River region which is still struggling with dryness.

“Every corner of the Prairies have had decent moisture from one end to the other,” he said. “Everywhere just seems to be having a fantastic start.”

The added precipitation, combined with tumbling grain prices in the United States, caused feed grain prices in Western Canada to move lower as of late.

“Barley is off from C$295 (per tonne) to probably C$285 to C$290. Corn has come from C$315 delivered at the feedlot to C$300 and feed wheat’s probably off from C$355 down to C$345,” Beusekom said.

However, this doesn’t necessarily mean more corn deliveries from the U.S. are coming in the near-term.

“I don’t know if feedlots are buying quite yet,” he added. “I think it piques their interest a little bit more, but they want to see how low it gets.”

Beusekom said it’s hard to tell where prices will go in the near future, but they may keep going lower.

“With the amount of moisture around, you would think it’s going to put a bit more pressure on prices here, especially as we’re getting closer to new crop, too,” he added. “It certainly looks like we’re going to have a big crop on the Canadian Prairies and everybody’s feeling a little bit bearish.”

Delivered bids for feed barley in Alberta ranged from C$226.43 to C$297.17/tonne, up C$1.84 from last month, as of June 5 according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. In Saskatchewan, prices were from C$234.24 to C$264.10/tonne, unchanged from last month. Manitoba prices were also steady from C$228.73 to C$229.65/tonne.

For feed wheat, delivered Alberta prices ranged from C$242.51 to C$356.05/tonne, up C$8.08 from last month. In Saskatchewan, feed wheat went for C$242.51 to C$330.70/tonne, steady from the month before. In Manitoba, only C$300.93/tonne was reported, up C$19.84 from one month earlier.

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“There’s been very minimal (price) movement in the last month, give or take five dollars a tonne,” said grain trader Jay Janzen of Cornine Commodities in Lacombe, Alta., adding “it’s status quo at this point.”

While showers have caused some seeding delays, he estimated that farmers in most regions were into the planting the last 20 per cent of the 2024 crop. The rains will allow fields to get off to a good start, although Janzen added that more moisture will be needed through the growing season.

As far as the spot market is concerned, “there’s still a decent of old crop grain in the bin, especially barley,” although little business was taking place. While any weather issues that materialize could provide support for new crop bids, “feedlots are very content to sit on their hands at this point,” according to Janzen.

Feed barley into Lethbridge’s feedlot alley was trading at around C$295 to C$298 per tonne in the latest weekly market review from the Alberta government, released May 24. That was unchanged on the top end from the previous week.

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Canada imported 34,500 tonnes of U.S. corn during the week ended May 16, taking the crop year total to 925,500 tonnes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report. That’s roughly double the 406,300 tonnes of U.S. corn Canada had brought in by the same point the previous marketing year.

Outstanding sales of 129,600 tonnes still to move compare with 126,900 tonnes the previous year.

Only 3,700 tonnes of new crop sales were on the books as of May 16, which compares with 25,400 tonnes of forward business that had already been booked by mid-May 2023.

Corn bids in the key livestock feeding area of Lethbridge climbed to around C$349 per tonne during the week of May 17, which compares with C$314 per tonne the previous week, according to the provincial government’s weekly market review. Meanwhile, feed barley bids were only up by one or two dollars, ranging from C$293 to C$298 per tonne.

Feed wheat into Lethbridge was priced at C$340 to C$347 per tonne, according to the provincial report, an increase of about C$5 per tonne on the top end on the week.

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