The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 125.1 points in November, down from a revised 126.6 in October and the lowest since January.

The November average was also 2.1 per cent below the year-earlier level and 21.9 per cent down from a peak in March 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the FAO said.

The agency’s sugar price reference fell 5.9 per cent from October to its lowest since December 2020, pressured by ample global supply expectations, while the dairy price index dropped 3.1 per cent in a fifth consecutive monthly decline, reflecting increased milk production and export supplies.

Vegetable oil prices fell 2.6 per cent to a five-month low, as declines for most products including palm oil outweighed strength in soyoil.

Meat prices declined 0.8 per cent, with pork and poultry leading the decrease, while beef quotations stabilised as the removal of U.S. tariffs on beef imports tempered recent strength, the FAO said.

In contrast, the FAO’s cereal price benchmark rose 1.8 per cent month-on-month. Wheat prices increased due to potential demand from China and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region, while maize prices were supported by demand for Brazilian exports and reports of weather disruption to field work in South America.

Record cereal production/stocks forecast

In a separate cereal supply and demand report, the FAO raised its global cereal production forecast for 2025 to a record 3.003 billion tonnes, compared with 2.990 billion tonnes projected last month, mainly due to increased wheat output estimates.

Forecast world cereal stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season were also revised up to a record 925.5 million tonnes, reflecting expectations of expanded wheat stocks in China and India as well as higher coarse grain stocks in exporting countries, the FAO said.

— Reporting by Gus Trompiz

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The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 127.7 points in May, reflecting a 0.8 per cent decrease from the April figure.

Why it matters: Declining food prices are good for consumers, but cut into farmers’ returns.

The May reading was up six per cent from a year earlier but over 20 per cent below a March 2022 peak following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that started a devastating war between two of the world’s leading grains producers.

The FAO cereal price index fell 1.8 per cent month-on-month, led by a sharp drop in global corn prices. Strong harvests and ample supplies in Argentina and Brazil, along with expectations of a record crop in the United States, weighed on prices.

Wheat prices edged lower due to improved crop conditions in the northern hemisphere.

By contrast, rice prices rose 1.4 per cent, supported by firm demand for fragrant varieties and currency movements.

Vegetable oil prices declined 3.7 per cent from April, with declines across all major oils. Palm oil prices fell due to seasonal output increases in Southeast Asia. Soy oil prices dropped on higher South American supplies and weak demand for biofuel.

Rapeseed oil eased on improved European Union supply prospects, while sunflower oil declined amid weak global demand.

The FAO sugar price index decreased by 2.6 per cent, reflecting concerns over the global economic outlook, weaker demand from food and beverage industries, and expectations of a production recovery next season.

Meat prices rose 1.3 per cent from April. Beef, pork and sheep meat prices increased, with beef reaching a record high. Poultry prices declined, pressured by surplus supplies in Brazil following import restrictions linked to a bird flu outbreak.

The FAO dairy price index rose 0.8 per cent, supported by strong demand from Asia. Butter prices remained at historic highs, while cheese and whole milk powder prices also increased.

Global cereal production to rise

In a separate report, the FAO forecast record global cereal production of 2.911 billion tonnes in 2025, up from 2.848 billion in its previous estimate and 2.1 per cent above 2024.

With production expected to surpass consumption, global cereal stocks are anticipated to grow by 1.0 per cent, partially recovering from last year’s contraction.

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The World Seed Congress is on in Rotterdam, Netherlands with a discussion of the major issues facing the seed and crops sector.

The event brings close to 2,000 people together from around the world, including seed production companies, national trade associations and researchers. King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands even showed up to open the congress by planting some seeds.

The major issues on the agenda include the challenges that the decline in free trade and globalization brings to major suppliers of seeds, the acceptance of gene editing and the technology involved in that process.

Seeds move from everywhere to everywhere

The move from free trade to tit-for-tat application of sanctions and increased use of non-tariff trade barriers has made business more challenging for seed companies, which have global supply chains.

Marco van Leeuwen, president of the International Seed Federation and managing director of the Rijk Zwaan vegetable seed company says the company is buffeted by increasing disputes among countries that decide to impose sanction or to not to trade with each other. He also says that during the COVID pandemic, countries identified domestic food production as a strategic priority. That included seeds. However, that’s also meant that some countries have closed their border to some seed imports.

“We breed varieties in country one, we test varieties in all the countries with the appropriate climatic conditions, and then we have to produce seeds, which we do again in other countries,” said van Leeuwen.

Then, those seeds are brought back to one country for packaging and distribution.

There’s about eight times more seed movement between countries than just 20 years ago, said Michael Keller, executive director of the International Seed Federation.

Food and Agriculture Organization working quicker

The sense of urgency to move food aid quicker, including the means for areas in crisis to grow food, requires the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to work more efficiently.

The FAO’s Deputy Director General Beth Bechdol told a press conference at the World Seed Congress that as part of the United Nations, the FAO has similar attributes to the UN such as being “highly bureaucratic, deeply institutionalized and very complex”.

But the American from a seven-generation farm in Indiana, said there’s need for speed and agility in managing food aid.

“There’s no more time for competition, there’s no more time for stepping over one another. There’s no more time for turf battles,” she said.

FAO is promoting science and technology as a way to more quickly get food to people.

“I would not say that science and innovation five years ago, 10 years ago were some of our biggest messages to the world’s agricultural leaders. Today it’s undeniable,” Bechdol said.

Gene editing is not the same debate as GMO

A panel of researchers and companies working on gene editing said there’s a long way to go until there’s wide acceptance of gene-edited crops. However, the debate isn’t as polarized as  when genetically modified crops were introduced.

Genetically modified crops involved moving novel genes into new species, whereas gene editing involves turning genes already in an organism on and off.

There’s less trepidation about working with genetics than in times past, but there are also significant global issues that can be helped by gene-edited crops. Securing food supplies and managing climate change are among issues that resonate with consumers.

Ania Lukasiewicz of Wageningen University said that some gene therapies that use gene editing technologies are being accepted, and that should help the acceptance of gene editing in other areas.

Claudia Hallebach, general counsel and head of global IP for KWS Group said that experience will help convince people. Take them to a field of sugar beet destroyed by a virus and the public will have both an emotional and scientific understanding of the impact of gene editing.

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The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 118.3 points in March, up from a revised 117.0 points the previous month, the agency said on Friday.

The February reading was the lowest for the index since February 2021 and marked a seventh consecutive monthly decline.

International food prices have fallen sharply from a record peak in March 2022 at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of fellow crop exporter Ukraine.

The FAO’s latest monthly reading was 7.7 per cent below the year-earlier level, it said.

In March, the agency’s vegetable oil price index led gains, jumping 8 per cent month on month, with all major oils registering increases.

The dairy index gained 2.9 per cent for a sixth straight monthly rise, driven by cheese and butter prices, while the FAO’s meat index added 1.7 per cent, reflecting higher poultry, pig and beef prices.

Those gains outweighed declines for cereals, which shed 2.6 per cent from February, and for sugar, which fell 5.4 per cent.

Wheat led the decline in cereals amid strong export competition and cancelled purchases by China, offsetting a slight rise for maize (corn) prices partly due to logistical difficulties in Ukraine, the FAO said.

Weaker sugar prices mainly reflected an upward revision to expected production in India and an improved harvest pace in Thailand, it said.

In separate cereal supply and demand data, the FAO nudged up its forecast for world cereal production in 2023/24 to 2.841 billion metric tons from 2.840 million projected last month, up 1.1 per cent from the previous season.

For upcoming crops, the agency trimmed its forecast for 2024 global wheat output to 796 million tons, from 797 million last month, due to reduced expectations for European Union and UK crops following rain-hit sowing and dry conditions in some areas.

For maize, a fall in world production was anticipated but the volume would remain above the average of the past five years, the FAO said, without giving a precise forecast.

—Reporting for Reuters by Gus Trompiz

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The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 118.5 points in December, down 1.5 per cent from November and 10.1 per cent below December 2022 levels.

For 2023 as a whole, the index averaged 13.7 per cent below year earlier levels, with only sugar prices higher over the period. The FAO’s sugar price index did, however, decline 16.6 per cent in December from November.

This was “mainly driven by the strong pace of production in Brazil, along with reduced use of sugarcane for ethanol production in India,” the UN agency said in a statement.

The FAO’s cereal price index rose 1.5 per cent in December from November, as wheat, maize, rice and barley prices all rose amid hindered shipments from major exporting countries.

For the year as a whole however, cereal prices were 15.4 per cent below their 2022 average as markets are well supplied with the exception of rice.

The largest price falls were in vegetable oils, with the price index slumping 1.4 per cent in December, from November, and a substantial 32.7 per cent drop for the year as a whole.

The FAO’s meat price index dipped 1.0 per cent in December from November and was down 1.8 per cent year-on-year, while the December dairy price index rose 1.6 per cent month-on-month, but was down 16.1 per cent from a year earlier.

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“The Ukraine crisis is creating shock waves when it comes to supply chain and especially food security and impacting the most vulnerable at the most difficult time,” said Harjit Sajjan, minister of international development.

“We are making adjustments to reflect this… People are going hungry because the prices of food have gone up,” Sajjan told Reuters in an interview in Jordan, the first leg of a regional tour that also takes him to Egypt and Lebanon.

He did not give the new aid figure but the Ottawa-based Canadian International Development Platform said there was a 27 per cent rise in foreign aid last year to around $6.6 billion.

The United Nations has said a global food crisis fuelled by conflict, climate shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic is growing because of the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine driving rising prices of food, fuel and fertilizer.

Over 50 million people in eastern Africa will face acute food insecurity this year, according to a new study backed by the U.N.’s World Food Program (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Sajjan said Canada is boosting aid to the WFP, whose annual requirements have reached an all-time high of $22.2 billion, without taking away from other development programs.

“We have increased our support for the Middle East region when it comes to food,” he said citing as one example Lebanon, which has a significant reliance on Ukraine wheat and is facing bread shortages.

He described as a positive step an agreement brokered with Russia and Ukraine last month by the United Nations and Turkey to unblock grain exports from Black Sea ports but said the few shipments so far were not enough to ease the crisis.

Canada was also increasing aid to Egypt, typically the world’s biggest wheat importer, and to Afghanistan, Yemen and Syria that have been riven by conflict.

Canada was also looking at how to help improve resilience in African countries, noting in particular the continent’s shortage of food storage.

— Suleiman Al-Khalidi is Reuters’ chief correspondent for Jordan and Syria.

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Many different strains of bird flu are present in China and some sporadically infect people, usually those working with poultry. There is no indication that H10N3 can spread easily in humans.

The man, a resident of the city of Zhenjiang, was hospitalized on April 28 and diagnosed with H10N3 on May 28, the health commission said. It did not give details on how the man was infected.

His condition is now stable and he is ready to be discharged. Investigation of his close contacts found no other cases, the NHC said. No other cases of human infection with H10N3 have been reported globally, it added.

H10N3 is low-pathogenic, which means it causes relatively less severe disease in poultry and is unlikely to cause a large-scale outbreak, the NHC added.

The World Health Organization (WHO), in a reply to Reuters in Geneva, said: “The source of the patient’s exposure to the H10N3 virus is not known at this time, and no other cases were found in emergency surveillance among the local population. At this time, there is no indication of human-to-human transmission.

“As long as avian influenza viruses circulate in poultry, sporadic infection of avian influenza in humans is not surprising, which is a vivid reminder that the threat of an influenza pandemic is persistent,” the WHO added.

The strain is “not a very common virus,” said Filip Claes, regional laboratory co-ordinator of the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases at the regional office for Asia and the Pacific.

Only around 160 isolates of the virus were reported in the 40 years to 2018, mostly in wild birds or waterfowl in Asia and some limited parts of North America, and none had been detected in chickens so far, he added.

Analyzing the genetic data of the virus will be necessary to determine whether it resembles older viruses or if it is a novel mix of different viruses, Claes said.

There have been no significant numbers of human infections with bird flu since the H7N9 strain killed around 300 people during 2016-17.

— Reporting for Reuters by Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton; additional reporting by Julie Steenhuysen in Chicago and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva.

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“Pulses are more than just nutritious seeds – they also contribute to achieving the goals of the 2030 Agenda of Sustainable Development,” the UN said in a release. “They play a critical role in addressing challenges of poverty, food security, soil health and climate change. These species provide many opportunities for improving the sustainability of agricultural production systems.”

A virtual event was held to highlight the day, bringing in industry and government officials to talk about pulse crops.

“Pulses play a key role in achieving better food systems. They are a source of safe and nutritious food for all and also contribute to the sustainability of agricultural production systems. Today we celebrate the role of this diverse and versatile commodity in addressing food security and contributing to healthy diets,” said Beth Bechdol, deputy director-general for the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Pulses can also play a role in reducing poverty, promoting well-being of people and the planet, and achieving the far-reaching and people-centred set of universal and transformative goals and targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, according to comments from Munir Akram, president of the UN Economic and Social Council and permanent representative of Pakistan to the UN.

The benefit of pulses in terms of food security, nutrition, sustainable agriculture and fighting climate change were also discussed during the event.

Pulses have many benefits, and these protein-, fibre- and mineral-rich leguminous crops are in the spotlight when featured in many dishes around the world, said the UN.

A number of chefs also took part in the event, noting the legumes are a part of the food culture, family traditions and diets of many people across the globe.

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It’s not a treat. They can either feed their crops to animals or let them spoil. And other farmers are doing just that — dumping truckloads of fresh grapes to rot on compost heaps.

The farmers cannot get their produce to consumers because of lockdowns that aim to stop the spread of coronavirus. In India, as in many parts of the world, restrictions on population movement are wreaking havoc on farming and food supply chains and raising concern of more widespread shortages and price spikes to come.

Across the globe, millions of labourers cannot get to the fields for harvesting and planting. There are too few truckers to keep goods moving. Air freight capacity for fresh produce has plummeted as planes are grounded. And there is a shortage of food containers for shipping because of a drop in voyages from China.

In Florida, a lack of Mexican migrant labourers means watermelon and blueberry growers face the prospect of rotting crops. Similar shortages of workers in Europe mean vegetable farms are missing the window to plant.

Such sprawling food production and distribution shocks illustrate the pandemic’s seemingly boundless capacity to suffocate economies worldwide and upend even the most essential business and consumer markets. There has been limited disruption so far to supplies of staple grains such as rice and wheat, although problems with planting and logistics are mounting.

Indian farmer Anil Salunkhe is feeding his strawberries to cows because the local tourists who usually eat them are gone, as are the fruit vendors who once worked the streets of the nearby metropolis of Mumbai.

“Nobody was willing to buy strawberries due to the lockdown,” Salunkhe told Reuters as he fed strawberries to a cow in Darewadi village, in Satara district.

He can’t even give his strawberries away: With stay-home orders in place, few villagers ventured out from their homes when he offered them the berries for free, he said.

In nearby Bhuinj village, Prabhakar Bhosale feeds lettuce to buffalo and lets villagers take more for their own cattle. The hotels and restaurants that normally buy lettuce are closed.

Migrant labourers stranded

The potential impact of planting and harvest disruptions is most acute in poorer countries with big populations, said Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

India — the world’s second-most populous country, where a majority of the population is involved in agriculture — is among the most vulnerable nations to the disruptions.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a 21-day lockdown with just a few hours notice on March 25, leaving many of its 120 million migrant labourers struggling to get home and with no money for rent, food or transport.

The country’s northern grain bowl relies on labour from eastern parts of the country, but workers have left the farms because of the lockdown.

“Who is going to fill the grain bags and bring the produce to market, and transport it to mills?” asked Jadish Lal, a merchant in Punjab’s Khanna grain market, the country’s largest.

Supply problems in one place are quickly felt on the other side of the world. In Canada, imports of speciality Indian vegetables such as onions, okra, and eggplant have dropped by as much as 80 per cent in the past two weeks as air cargo space dwindled, said Clay Castelino, president of Ontario-based Orbit Brokers, which helps shipments clear customs.

Castelino figured the sharp decline meant the food had simply gone to waste: “With perishable food, once it’s gone, it’s gone,” he said.

Europe’s missing workers

Spain has a shortage of migrant workers from countries such as Morocco who cannot travel.

“In around 15 days time, the blueberry season will peak until mid-May,” said manager Francisco Sanchez, a manager at Spanish growers association Onubafruit. “We need a big concentration of labour then.”

In Italy, about 200,000 seasonal workers will be needed in the next two months. The government may have to ask people receiving state benefits to pick the fruit and vegetables, said Ivano Vacondio, head of Italy’s Food Association Federalimentare.

In France, Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has issued a rallying cry to what he called France’s “shadow army” of newly laid-off workers to replace the usual crews of migrant workers on the farms.

“If the call is not heard, the production will remain in the fields, and the entire sector will be damaged,” said Christiane Lambert, head of France’s largest farm union, FNSEA.

In Brazil — the world’s top exporter of soybeans, coffee, and sugar — farm lobby CNA said the industry faces a range of problems, including challenges hiring truck drivers to haul crops and a shortage of spare parts for farm equipment.

In Argentina, the world’s top exporter of soymeal, exports have been delayed as the government ramps up inspections of incoming cargo ships.

Land, sea and air

In addition to the trucking problems, a sharp decline in air traffic has cut deeply into capacity to move fresh produce long distances.

Andres Ocampo, chief executive of Miami fruit importer HLB Specialties, relied on commercial flights to shift papayas and other produce from Brazil to Florida. Now he is buying more from Mexico and Guatemala, where goods can still be shipped by trucks.

Ocampo says volumes of the company’s imports from Brazil have dropped by 80 per cent.

“In Europe, it’s even worse, because they don’t have a Mexico-like source for papayas,” he said.

U.S. and Canadian exporters are grappling with a shortage of refrigerated containers to supply goods, as voyages of container ships from China to the West Coast are down by a quarter due to reduced demand because of lockdowns.

“The containers are tough to get right now,” said Michael Dykes, president of the International Dairy Foods Association, a U.S.-based trade group. “If a company needs five containers, they’ll find they can get one.”

Port congestion is slowing shipments of pork and beef to destinations such as China because workers have been told to stay at home. That is exacerbating the shortage of protein supplies in China, where an outbreak of African swine fever has taken a quarter of the world’s pigs off the market in the past year and a half.

A different kind of crisis

The emerging supply-chain disruptions are much different than the food crises of 2007-08 and 2010-2012, when droughts in grain-producing nations caused shortages that led to higher prices, unrest and riots in several countries. Those price spikes were driven in part by state hoarding of rice and other staples.

Now, staple grain supplies are relatively plentiful and global prices have been low for years as farmers in the U.S., Brazil and in the Black Sea region have planted more and improved yields.

Although there are signs that big importers such as Iraq and Egypt are boosting grains purchases amid rising food security concerns, other countries are boosting exports. Second-largest rice exporter Thailand, for instance, is taking advantage of higher rice prices by increasing exports from stockpiles.

Top rice exporter India, however, has stopped rice exports due to labour shortages and logistics problems. Third-largest exporter Vietnam has also curbed exports.

African nations — where many people spend more than half of their income on food — are among the most vulnerable to disruptions in staple food supplies.

The continent is the fastest-growing consumer of rice, accounting for 35 per cent of global imports and 30 per cent of wheat imports. Sub-Saharan Africa alone is the third-largest rice consuming region, yet holds the smallest grain inventories — relative to demand — of all regions, because of tight government budgets and limited storage.

While the earlier food crises involved supply shocks, today the problem is getting plentiful supplies to the people who need it — many of whom have suddenly lost their income.

“It is a whole different animal,” the FAO’s Abbassian said. “You don’t have labour, you don’t have trucks to move the food, you don’t have money to buy the food.”

— Reporting for Reuters by Rajendra Jadhav, Naveen Thukral and Nigel Hunt; additional reporting by Mayank Bhardwaj in New Delhi, Veronica Brown and Jonathan Saul in London, Sonya Dowsett in Madrid, Libby George in Lagos, Phil Blenkinsop in Brussels, Stephen Jewkes in Milan, Gus Trompiz and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris, Emma Farge in Geneva, Michael Hogan in Hamburg, Christopher Walljasper, Karl Plume, PJ Huffstutter and Tom Polansek in Chicago, Rod Nickel in Winnipeg and Ana Mano in Sao Paulo.

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The world’s richest nations poured unprecedented aid into the global economy as COVID-19 coronavirus cases ballooned across Europe and the United States, with the number of deaths in Italy outstripping those in mainland China, where the virus originated.

With over 270,000 infections and more than 11,000 deaths, the epidemic has stunned the world and drawn comparisons with periods such as the Second World War and the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

“All you need is panic buying from big importers such as millers or governments to create a crisis,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

“It is not a supply issue, but it is a behavioural change over food security,” he told Reuters by phone from Rome, the FAO headquarters. “What if bulk buyers think they can’t get wheat or rice shipments in May or June? That is what could lead to a global food supply crisis.”

Consumers across the world from Singapore to the United States have queued at supermarkets in recent weeks to stock up on items ranging from rice and hand sanitizers to toilet paper.

The global benchmark Chicago wheat futures rose more than six per cent this week, the biggest weekly gain in nine months, while rice prices in Thailand, the world’s second largest exporter of the grain, have climbed to the highest since August 2013.

France’s grain industry is scrambling to find enough trucks and staff to keep factories and ports running as the panic buying of pasta and flour coincides with a surge in wheat exports.

Restrictions imposed by some European Union countries at their borders with other member states in response to the pandemic are also disrupting food supplies, representatives of the industry and farmers said.

However, global wheat stocks at the end of the crop marketing year in June are projected to rise to 287.14 million tonnes, up from 277.57 million tonnes a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates.

World rice stocks are projected at 182.3 million tonnes as compared with 175.3 million tonnes a year ago.

Food in the right place

Logistics are likely to be a major global issue, analysts said.

“There is about 140 million tonnes of corn that goes in ethanol in the United States and some of that can used for food as it won’t be needed for fuel, given the drop in oil prices,” said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at brokerage IKON Commodities

“The concern is having food at the right time in the right place.”

Asian buyers were inactive this week with uncertainty looming in the market.

“We are not sure about the demand. What it is going to look like in June or July?” said one Singapore-based purchasing manager at a flour milling company that has operations across Southeast Asia. “Restaurant business is down, and as a result demand is a bit soft right now.”

Asian wheat importers, including the region’s top importer Indonesia, have been taking a bulk of the cargoes from the Black Sea region amid a global oversupply.

Oil exporting nations in the Middle East, which are also net grain importers, are likely to feel more financial pain with crude losing more than 60% of its value this year .

“Net oil exporters’ capacity to buy grains has dropped given the fall in oil prices and depreciation in currencies,” said FAO’s Abbassian.

“There will be less capacity to take policy actions to boost economies.”

— Naveen Thukral is a Reuters correspondent covering Asia’s grains sector from Singapore; additional reporting by Patpicha Tanakasempipat in Bangkok.

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