The 2026 FCC Food and Beverage Report states sales among food and beverage manufacturers are predicted to rise by 0.8 per cent while volumes fall by 0.7 per cent, the fourth straight year of decline. It notes sales growth will likely be driven by higher prices, not higher consumption.

WHY IT MATTERS: With trade tensions still disrupting global supply, prices could fluctuate this year, affecting consumers’ choices.

FCC chief economist Craig Johnston said this disparity speaks to the issue of consumer purchasing power.

“Higher food prices over the past several years are really weighing on households’ budgets,” he said in an interview. “They’re making more cost-conscious decisions.”

“This is actually a headwind for consumption and a headwind for volumes.”

He said any upstream changes will no doubt filter down to Canadian producers. Some challenges are shared across sectors.

“When we think about common elements, you can think about the tariffs, the elevated input costs, generally,” he said.

Margins are tight across the sector, including for farmers.

“We’re not seeing massive improvements on margins within the food and beverage manufacturing sector to pre-COVID levels, and we’re not necessarily seeing that filter through to a broad-based increase in margins for primary ag.”

“The industry in general is still going through this adjustment period” he said, “and we do expect that to continue to 2026.”

Trade tensions still a factor

Canada will continue to grapple with trade uncertainty this year, including the recent instability caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

Forecasts for costs of goods in the Food and Beverage Report were made before the crisis, “meaning that if the commodity price surge persists beyond just a few months, there would be upside risks to those estimates.”

FCC had expected pressures on some inputs, such as cattle and hogs, to ease from 2025 highs, but surging energy prices due to the conflict make that less likely.

Costs of production up

Production costs for food and beverage manufacturers increased by two per cent in 2025, driven mostly by raw material costs.

“The increase in raw material costs was driven by disruptions that constrained availability and raised prices,” the report states.

“Some examples from 2025 include avian influenza impacts on poultry … tariffs that increased the cost of imported aluminum packaging and historically low cattle herd sizes across North America.”

Costs across sectors

The report also breaks down costs associated with sub-sectors of food and beverage processing.

In grain and oilseed milling, sales were uneven in 2025 but improved by the fourth quarter. 2026 shows signs of a rebound in sales and volumes.

Large carryover of canola stocks is expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. Canola prices are expected to fall by 3.1 per cent in 2026.

The report suggested demand for Canadian maple syrup and honey has continued to increase in the global market.

In the dairy sector, 2026 will likely see a 3.6 per cent increase of product manufacturing sales over 2025. Processors are also expected to pass along costs from the producer price increase for unprocessed milk to consumers.

In the meat manufacturing sector, FCC forecasts sales up 1.6 per cent and volumes down by 5.6 per cent.

Tight supplies of live animals, due largely to disease outbreaks, drove prices up in 2025. According to the report, “2026 will likely see another year where price, not volume, drives sales upward.”

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Federal Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau on Sept. 27 announced Shikha Jain will be the CDC’s commissioner for a four-year term effective Sept. 15.

Jain, who lives at Guelph, is the CEO for GET Corp., a green tech firm focused on conversion on dairy farms’ organic wastes to renewable natural gas.

A former chief administrative officer for Dairy Farmers of Ontario and CEO for Career Colleges Ontario, Jain “brings extensive experience in strategic and operational planning and is recognized as a trusted and collaborative leader,” the federal government said in a release.

“There is no doubt that Shikha Jain’s extensive experience in strategic planning and sustainability in the dairy industry will be assets for the Canadian Dairy Commission,” Bibeau said in the same release.

“Her guidance will be valuable as the CDC is moving forward with the government’s agenda to advance innovation and (greenhouse gas) emissions reduction.”

The commission is tasked with co-ordinating federal and provincial dairy policies; it administers support prices for butter and skin milk powder and the national marketing quota.

Jain’s appointment fills the vacancy on the CDC’s three-member board of directors, after the appointment of Benoit Basillais as the commission’s new CEO this summer and former commissioner Jennifer Hayes as CDC chair late last year.

CDC governance was flagged in a special report from the federal auditor general’s office in March last year, calling on the commission’s board to keep in touch with the ag minister’s office on a “timely basis” to make sure its board table is fully occupied.

That report found no board meetings had to be cancelled or any decisions left unresolved, but nevertheless, having an empty chair at a three-member board table “poses a significant risk that the board would be unable to make decisions and operate effectively,” the auditor general’s office said at the time.

That poses a risk particularly for the CDC. Its requirement for members to have “significant dairy industry experience” — with one member also serving as CEO — makes it somewhat more likely that a “real, potential or perceived” conflict of interest could pop up, requiring at least one member to abstain from voting on certain decisions. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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Federal Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau on Wednesday announced Benoit Basillais, the CDC’s director of policy and economics, became the Crown corporation’s new CEO effective Monday.

Basillais replaces Serge Riendeau, the dairy producer and former Agropur Co-operative president who’s been the CDC’s chief executive since 2018.

Basillais, who studied agricultural economics in France and has a master’s degree in rural economics from Laval University, has worked for the CDC since 2003. Starting there as an economist, he was named director of policy and economics in 2016.

The new appointee “is very familiar with both the stakeholders and the issues facing the dairy industry,” Bibeau said in a release Wednesday.

“Now as CEO, I trust that he will make a significant contribution to the success of the dairy industry while increasing the transparency of the pricing mechanism.”

The CDC is tasked with co-ordinating federal and provincial dairy policies; it administers the dairy production control mechanism used to avoid production shortages or surpluses. Its CEO serves as one of three members of the commission’s board of directors, along with the chairperson and a commissioner.

Former CDC commissioner Jennifer Hayes was named as its chairperson at the end of 2021, which leaves just the commissioner’s seat vacant at the board table.

CDC governance was raised in a special report from the federal auditor general’s office in March last year, which called on the commission’s board to keep in touch with the ag minister’s office on a “timely basis” to make sure it maintains a full complement at the board table.

That report found no board meetings had to be cancelled or any decisions left unresolved, but having one empty chair at a three-member board table nevertheless “poses a significant risk that the board would be unable to make decisions and operate effectively,” the auditor general’s office said.

That poses a risk particularly for the CDC. Its requirement for members to have “significant dairy industry experience,” with one member also serving as CEO, makes it somewhat more likely that a “real, potential or perceived” conflict of interest could pop up, requiring at least one member to abstain from voting on certain decisions.

Maintaining a full slate of CDC board members, the report noted, is the responsibility of the federal Governor in Council — that is, Canada’s governor general on the advice of the federal cabinet.

An Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada spokesperson said via email Thursday the department is
in the midst of the ongoing process to fill the CDC commissioner position “following the open, transparent and merit-based processes for selecting Governor in Council appointees” — and thus can’t yet say when a commissioner appointee will be named.

The June 30 order in council to appoint Basillais as CDC CEO sets his term at four years.

Basillais “brings with him a complete understanding of the issues faced by the sector,” AAFC said in its statement Wednesday, adding his background and “extensive knowledge of the Canadian supply management system allows him to identify and present innovative approaches to each unique situation.”

Riendeau, whose term as CEO was extended in April 2021 for one additional year, “has worked to improve collaboration between segments of the dairy supply chain, and supported the modernization of supply management,” AAFC said. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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That goes against the assurances of U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Purdue while visiting Canada last summer that the Americans didn’t want an end to supply management.

Canada’s chief agriculture negotiator Aaron Fowler told the Dairy Farmers of Ontario’s recent annual meeting that The Canada U.S. Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) was far from a normal trade negotiation from the start.

Why it matters: The CUSMA deal has created more challenges for dairy farmers, by increasing market access for the United States and limiting exports of Canadian products, which has dairy farmers looking for answers.

“Preservation and maintenance of supply management in Canada was not something the U.S. indicated a high willingness to accept,” said Fowler.

Fowler tried to provide some background to several areas which had greatly concerned dairy farmers.

They included:

• Why the Canadian government said that a version of the agreement posted by the U.S. didn’t match up with its expectations – then signed an agreement that was quite similar.
• Has Canada given up control of the dairy sector to U.S. oversight?
• Why Canadian dairy farmers continue to be the sector taking the biggest losses when trade deals are signed?
• What does the trade deal mean for the difficult-to-market skim milk powder which Canada had been exporting?

Fowler, who was appointed to the role of chief agriculture negotiator in the summer addressed the concerns directly.

He said that Canada was concerned that the U.S. version, posted shortly after the deal was signed, hadn’t had a “legal scrub” and that there were points of difference. That didn’t mean that the proposed dairy areas were going to see lots of changes, as dairy farmers had hoped and were disappointed to see when the final version was signed in late November.

Fowler admitted there was a lot of noise made around how transparent Canada has to be with the U.S. about changes being made to the dairy system and milk classes.

Most of the transparency provisions are common in trade deals and is found in other trade deals signed by Canada, he said. The transparency is necessary in order for countries to make sure their trading partners are meeting their obligations under a trade deal.

Notification of the creation of new classes of milk is the type of clause that can also be found in other trade deals, he said.

Another area of concern is that the U.S. price will have to be used for the setting of prices for milk protein isolates and other products made from skim milk powder.

Fowler said that for 15 of 18 months Class 7 – the class of milk that covered products made from skim milk powder – was in existence, the U.S. non-fat dry milk price was the basis of the pricing for the class. Now, it will have to be all the time, a big advantage for the Americans as Canadian pricing for those products will never be able to undercut the U.S. price even if there’s a lower base price elsewhere in the world.

And what about supply managed sectors always being the taker of the body blow when it comes to trade?

Fowler said that when entering into negotiations, countries often aim at the most protected sectors. Often, most other agriculture sectors are tariff free or will be once a trade deal is done, so the supply managed sector tariff lines 96 of them of between 7000 and 8000 tariff lines are not negotiable.

“It’s not surprising they target them,” he said.

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Two documents that surfaced this week help explain why.

The first, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s “Regulatory Economic Impact Analysis of the Final Decision to Establish a California Federal Milk Marketing Order,” has nothing to do with NAFTA.

But it does provide a window on the convoluted world of U.S. dairy policy. If Canada’s system of supply management is complicated, the U.S. system is damn complicated.

There are striking similarities, however. Both regulate milk prices, both use price pooling, and both systems have an effect on consumer prices; sometimes consumers pay more than they might in an unregulated market, sometimes they pay less.

In fact, agricultural economist Al Mussell, with Agri-Food Economic Systems, says the two systems are mirror images of each other — with a few notable exceptions.

Although the U.S. supports prices, it does not control supply, which leads to prolonged periods of overproduction. As one observer noted, the U.S.’s latest dairy crisis isn’t because of Canada’s supply management system, it’s because the U.S. has too much milk.

Canada controls production through quotas. Those quotas have been capitalized into a producer’s cost of being in business, although they are not factored into the cost-of-production formulas used to set the price of milk. Quota purchase is an asset, not unlike the purchase of farmland, the cost of which has no bearing on the price farmers receive for their grain.

Both countries limit dairy imports. The difference is, Canadian import tariffs are transparent.

“We may have 300 per cent tariffs (on butter), but they have equivalent protective trade measures that are maybe not as high as some our tariffs, but they have the same effect. It is very hard to export to the U.S., I would argue it’s almost equivalent,” Mussell said in an interview.

Canadian dairy exports are deemed subsidized and penalized under world trade rules. U.S. dairy exports haven’t been challenged at the WTO and face no such sanctions.

So for the U.S. to call out Canada in trade talks “is like the pot calling the kettle black,” Mussell says.

That brings us to the second document released recently, an analysis by Export Action Global consultants that challenges the notion that Canadian dairy products are overpriced and that consumers fare better in a deregulated dairy market.

The report “Dairy Systems Around The World: Are Canadian Consumers and Farmers Better Off with the Canadian Model?” is consistent with what Canadian dairy lobbyists have been saying for years.

According to author Adam Taylor, however, the analysis was not commissioned. “We sought data from farm groups, Nielsen and other sources (including updated information from the government) but we put this out ourselves,” he said in an email.

“We wanted to paint a more fulsome picture of dairy systems around the world especially how both consumers and farmers are affected.”

“We conclude there is a valid and evidence-tested argument in favour of supply management and the net benefits it delivers to farmers, consumers and across the dairy sector value chain.” So much so, that there are calls from within the U.S. dairy sector to replicate the Canadian system, rather than push for its demise.

Export Action Global found that Canadian dairy prices are similar, and in some cases significantly lower than prices in deregulated milk markets in the UK, Australia, New Zealand and the European Union.

“Virtually all of these jurisdictions swapped regulation for new and larger subsidies,” it says. “Consumers pay for their products once at the retail level and again through their tax dollars.”

It cited New Zealand as the only country in which a deregulated system has produced some benefits, largely due to the establishment of Fonterra, a quasi-monopoly marketing co-op. In other parts of the world, deregulation has contributed to overproduction, price volatility for farmers and consumers, as frequently, the dumping of excess milk.

Canadians currently pay less on average than Americans for butter, yogurt and cheese, the analysis found.

The U.S. dairy sector is heavily reliant on another subsidy of sorts, undocumented foreign workers.

The U.S. National Milk Producers Federation issued a report in 2015 that said immigrants make up half the workers on U.S. dairy farms. If that source of labour was lost, milk production costs would rise and retail milk prices would nearly double.

It also notes that simply gaining increased access to the Canadian market, as the Trump administration is demanding, would not solve the U.S. dairy crisis. Ten per cent of the Canadian market equates with only one per cent of U.S. dairy production.

This will not silence the critics, nor does it address the structural issues facing the Canadian dairy sector.

It does, however, suggest that the Canadian system isn’t as impractical or out of touch with the modern world as some would like you to believe.

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Fonterra’s GlobalDairyTrade Price Index dipped 2.9 per cent, with an average selling price of $2,190 per tonne, in the auction held on Tuesday (all figures US$).

A total of 20,406 tonnes was sold at the latest auction, falling 6.7 per cent from the previous one.

Dairy futures had suggested prices might rise, but analysts said continued strong global dairy supply was putting pressure on prices.

“The NZX Dairy Futures market has previously been a good barometer of market sentiment, but despite futures prices softening in the past few days this market was factoring in a lift in GDT prices,” said AgriHQ analyst Susan Kilsby in a research note.

Measures designed to support dairy farmers announced by the European Commission this week would continue to drag on prices, she added.

“The support mechanisms will distort market signals and therefore European farmers are likely to continue to produce more milk than the market requires,” Kilsby said.

After rising steadily since 2008 to scale record highs in 2013, global dairy prices have dropped sharply because of slowing economic growth in China and global oversupply of milk products.

The weak prices have put significant pressure on New Zealand farmers, with an estimated 80 per cent currently operating below break-even. The country’s central bank is today due to announce the results of a stress-test it asked major banks to undertake on their dairy portfolios.

The GDT auctions are held twice a month, with the next one scheduled for March 29. The auction platform was set up by Fonterra and is operated by trading manager CRA International.

Participants include Fonterra, Amul, Arla Foods, Arla Foods Ingredients, DairyAmerica, Euroserum and Murray Goulburn.

The auction results can affect the New Zealand dollar as the dairy sector generates more than seven per cent of the nation’s gross domestic product. The currency was quoted at 65.95 cents, having fallen overnight from as high as 66.84 cents the previous day.

— Reporting for Reuters by Charlotte Greenfield and Bangalore commodities desk.

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Headquartered in Denmark, Arla is Britain’s largest and the world’s seventh-largest dairy company. It reported net profit falling nearly eight per cent to 295 million euros (C$451 million) on revenue of 10.3 billion euros in 2015.

Rising European milk production following the scrapping of EU milk quotas combined with China’s slowdown in demand and a Russian embargo on European foods have put downward pressure on milk prices and prompted protests by farmers.

“Our annual results show that the dairy industry is in a global crisis. There is more milk supply in the market than demand can absorb,” CEO Peder Tuborgh told Reuters.

The GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) benchmark milk index showed milk prices are down 65 per cent since a peak in April 2013.

Tuborgh expects an upturn at the end of 2016 when China, the world’s biggest importer of powdered milk, will need to start increasing imports, having depleted its stocks although a game changer would be Russia lifting its import ban.

Arla Foods has mitigated the impact of low milk prices by moving more into added-value products — turning milk into more expensive goods such as its Lurpak butter and Castello cheese.

On Monday, France failed to secure more relief measures from the European Union for its struggling farmers, as it tries to contain domestic protests.

France initially favoured lifting the price at which milk producers can sell into public storage but many EU member states were against, recalling times when this led to stockpiles of “butter mountains” and “milk lakes.”

Rabobank dairy senior analyst Kevin Bellamy said in his latest quarterly report that international dairy prices stabilized in the fourth quarter but failed to show any real signs of recovery.

He expected stocks to approach normal levels by around mid-year, saying “Pricing pressure will still build over our (one-year) forecast period.”

Two of the world’s largest dairy companies, Switzerland’s Nestle and France’s Danone, will publish full-year results on Feb. 18 and Feb. 23 respectively. Arla is owned by 12,500 farmers in seven northern European countries.

— Ole Mikkelsen is a Reuters editor based in Copenhagen.

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Milk prices paid to EU farmers are down 20 per cent from last year at 30 euro cents (C45 cents) a litre on average, leaving some farms operating below production costs and upsetting the plans of farmers and dairy processors that expanded capacity before the abolition of EU milk production limits last April.

The ending of output limits in the European Union has contributed to world oversupply just as demand has been curbed by an embargo by Russia — usually the biggest buyer of EU cheese — and a drop-off in Chinese dairy imports.

“The removal of quotas couldn’t have come at a worse time,” said Ian Macalpine, chairman of the Royal Association of British Dairy Farmers.

The slide in prices has revived memories of a previous downturn in 2009 that saw some EU farmers dump milk rather than sell it.

Protests have spread across Europe this summer, with farmers targeting supermarkets in Britain, France and also Germany, the EU’s top milk producer and a supporter of the quota abolition.

“Europe is a great place to produce milk, you wouldn’t want to stop producing milk here, but farmers will find it difficult to cope with the volatility,” Kevin Bellamy, senior global dairy analyst at Rabobank, said.

Farmer groups are calling for a new form of output regulation, while countries such as France are pushing for an increase in the public intervention price at which producers can sell into storage.

The EU’s executive has already extended aid for farm sectors including dairy, hurt by Russia’s ban on Western food imports, and more measures could follow at a Sept. 7 meeting of EU farm ministers to discuss the livestock sector.

Agriculture ministers from Spain, France, Italy and Portugal met in Madrid to discuss the dairy industry and agreed to call at the Sept. 7 meeting for a temporary increase in the market intervention price for powdered skimmed milk, Spanish farm minister Isabel Garcia Tejerina told reporters.

But EU agriculture commissioner Phil Hogan said the situation was “nothing like” 2009 and warned against going back on market reforms.

“Milk quotas are gone and they are gone forever,” he said.

Living with volatility

Ireland’s largest dairy firm, Glanbia, said last week it sees prices staying weak into next year, a view shared by analysts.

A recovery from 12-year lows in benchmark global prices will most likely come from easing production in New Zealand, where farmers face steeper price falls than in Europe, and the return of Chinese buyers after destocking, analysts say.

In the meantime, less financially solid EU farms could cut back or stop altogether, particularly in southern and eastern regions that have smaller herds and less grassland.

But in the EU’s northern dairy heartland, stretching from Ireland to Germany, farmers are unlikely to change course as they leverage recently added capacity and provision for so-called superlevy fines totalling several hundred million euros for exceeding quotas in 2014-15.

And some producers remain sanguine given long-term demand in emerging markets, part of the rationale behind ending EU quotas.

“Low prices are just a fact of life. It’s about volatility,” said Rene van Buitenen, spokesman for the Dutch dairy processors federation.

— Gus Trompiz is a commodities correspondent for Reuters in Paris. Reporting for Reuters by Nigel Hunt in London, Thomas Escritt in Amsterdam, Barbara Lewis in Brussels and Michael Hogan in Hamburg.

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U.K. farmers have warned they face financial ruin, with falls in the price of milk forcing many out of work and spurring others to blockade distribution centres and walk cows through supermarkets.

The dairy industry has seen a 25 per cent year-on-year drop in the amount farmers are paid for milk, caused by a decline in demand from China and Russia and exacerbated by a grocery price war in Britain.

The National Farmers Union (NFU) has said retailers Tesco , Marks + Spencer, Waitrose, Sainsbury’s and the Co-operative paid farmers a price based on the cost of production, but others — including Morrisons, Asda, Aldi and Lidl — did not.

Following talks with farmers unions, Morrisons said it had increased its offer to processors of the liquid milk element of its processed fresh milk to a minimum price of 26 pence a litre from later this month and through the winter.

Discounter Aldi said from Aug. 17 it would pay its three processors a minimum of 28 pence per litre for all liquid milk sold in its UK stores.

On Thursday Asda, the British arm of U.S. retailer Wal-Mart, committed to pay processor Arla 28 pence per litre for 100 per cent of its liquid milk volume from Aug. 17 for the foreseeable future.

Morrisons announced earlier in the week that it would create a new brand of milk, “Morrisons Milk for Farmers,” where 10 pence per litre goes back to Arla farmers, giving customers the opportunity to support farmers.

On Friday it announced a similar initiative for cheese. It said it will launch a “Milk for Farmers” cheddar cheese priced at a retail premium of 34 pence-a-pack above the standard Morrisons cheddar price, delivering the equivalent of 10 pence-a-litre back to farmers who supply the milk.

— Reporting for Reuters by James Davey in London.

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Dairy prices have more than halved from record highs scaled in 2013, with Chinese buying dropping off dramatically after the world’s second-biggest economy built up excess supplies of milk powder last year just as the economy began to slow.

Fonterra, the world’s largest dairy exporter, has dominated the commodity milk powder sector for years and had been rapidly expanding its business in China.

But profits have been falling for nearly two years in the face of volatile dairy prices, which sank to a 12 1/2-year low at the latest global auction on Wednesday.

As a result, Fonterra said on Thursday it would cut more than 500 of its 16,000-strong global workforce, and warned more redundancies were likely as it reviews its operations.

New Zealand’s dairy exports to China have tumbled 69 per cent since the start of the year compared with 2014, official data shows, whittling Beijing’s share of the country’s total dairy shipments to roughly 16 per cent, from 37 per cent last year.

At the same time, a ban by Russia on foreign dairy products, imposed in response to sanctions slapped on the country over its role in the Ukraine conflict, has removed a major buyer of butter and other milk products.

Meanwhile, supply has ramped up as farmers in New Zealand, Europe and the U.S. have set up dairy farms in hopes of cashing in on a doubling in dairy prices between 2009 and 2013. Production in New Zealand, the world’s biggest dairy exporter, has reached record highs.

“It’s really both sides of the equation. We had a period of really high milk prices, and that encouraged additional milk production across the globe,” said Susan Kilsby, dairy analyst at agricultural consultants AgriHQ.

“There’s been… no reason to slow production anywhere as feed costs are low so there’s still a lot of signals to encourage milk production. That’s timed with the two largest buyers of dairy products buying less than usual.”

More room to fall

Industry sources say Chinese processors are still working through stockpiles of imported milk powder, prized over domestic offerings due to past safety scares, which is used in everything from confectionary to baby formula.

That has kept Chinese buyers out of the market since the start of the year.

“The optimistic view is that there is 150,000 tonnes of powder sitting in warehouses,” said David Mahon, managing director of Beijing-based Mahon China Investment Management, which focuses on China’s food and beverage sectors. “I think it’s well over 300,000 tonnes, but the mix is hard to know.”

Such a stash would equal roughly half the volume of milk powder New Zealand exported to China in the whole of 2014.

Analysts see the risk of prices falling further, with demand unlikely to pick up soon as Chinese processors work through their existing stocks.

Adding to the expected glut, New Zealand’s farmers are gearing up for the milking season beginning next month after the Southern Hemisphere winter.

“Often at this time of the year you see a faster increase in supply out of the Southern Hemisphere because supplies are tight, but we’re certainly not seeing that this year,” said Kilsby at AgriHQ. “There are certainly opportunities for prices to fall further.”

— Naomi Tajitsu is a Reuters correspondent based in Wellington, New Zealand. Additional reporting for Reuters by Adam Jourdan in Shanghai and Dominique Patton in Beijing.

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